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研究生:蔡和吉
研究生(外文):Tsai, He-Ji
論文名稱:經濟不景氣下二氧化碳排放與所得關係之研究
論文名稱(外文):On the Relatationships of CO2 Emissions and Income under Economic Recessions
指導教授:陳宛君陳宛君引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Wan-Jiun
口試委員:王健合洪乙禎
口試委員(外文):Wang, Chien-HoHong, Yi-Chien
口試日期:2013-06-20
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:65
中文關鍵詞:經濟不景氣二氧化碳排放環境顧志耐曲線
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環境保護觀念隨著全球環境問題漸趨嚴重而開始漸漸的植入人心。人們在經歷經濟掛帥的快速成長階段之後,全球氣候變遷已使得碳減排相關之環境保護策略成為二十一世紀人們普遍重視的問題。著眼於碳排和所得關係變化相關研究分析數量很多。但不景氣期間,二氧化碳排放與所得關係的分析,較少見到相關探討。不景氣期間,各國急於恢復景氣的同時,現今碳減排是全球暖化主要緩解之道之一。從1960年到2010年期間,世界經歷幾次經濟不景氣,從早期的石油危機造成經濟不景氣,到近期的金融性經濟不景氣,二氧化碳排放在經濟不景氣期間變化值得探討。因此,本研究分析1961年到2010年期間,德國、愛爾蘭、義大利、南韓、希臘、葡萄牙、泰國、美國、英國和西班牙等十個研究標的國,於研究期間六次主要經濟不景氣時,二氧化碳排放量和所得之間的關係。研究發現,已開發國家像美國和歐洲諸國在能源危機的經濟不景氣期間,會加速增加碳排來支撐經濟的成長,而開發中國家像泰國及南韓對於碳排的增加或是減少並不明顯;在金融危機時,美國和歐洲諸國在經濟不景氣期間,碳排比其他年度來的低,而對於泰國及南韓來說,卻反而開始增加碳排來支撐它們的經濟成長。
Along with economic development and the concequent global climate changes, the concept of environmental protection has been gradually implanted in people's minds. Instead of the pursue of rapid economic growth, environmental protection policies and a reduction in carbon emissions have widespread seized the attentions.The studies of the relationships of economic development and pollutions have focus on the effects of income growth, since growth in income is taken for granted as the common phase of economic development. The economic growth has evidenced closely interdependence with the use of energy and carbone dioxide emissions. Since recessions were regarded as the special shocks and treated as exceptions on the path of development, the study on economic recessions is neglected. This research analyzes the relationship of carbon dioxide emissions and economic development, by including income and economic recession dummies as independent variables. Six recession dummies are used to represent the six main recessions during the study period from 1961 to 2010, as compared with normal years without recessions. The recessions are in two different types – one is the energy crisis in the early ages and the other is financial crisis in recent years. Ten countries are investigated, including Germany, Ireland, Italy, South Korea, Greece, Portugal, Thailand, the United States, the United Kindom and Spain. These ten countries are in four categories for comparison– five EU countries with crisis in financial deficts (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain), two EU countries with superior carbone reduction performance (Germany and the United Kindom), two developing countries (South Korea and Thailand), and one non-EU developed countries (the United States).The results verified that developed countries accelerated the increase in carbon emissions to support their economic growth during the economic downturn caused by energy crisis, by the studies of the U.S. and the European countries, for instance, while developing countries did not obviously increase or decrease their carbon emissions during energy crisis, like Thailand and South Korea. On the country, during the period of financial crisis, the United States and European countries lowered the volume of carbon emissions during the economic downturn compared with other normal years, and for Thailand and South Korea, however, they increased carbon emissions to support their economic growth.
中文摘要I
AbstractII
目錄IV
圖目錄VI
表目錄VII
第一章 緒論1

第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 全球碳減排措施與概況3
第三節 研究目的 4
第四節 研究流程與本文架構流程6

第二章 文獻回顧7

第三章 研究方法與實證模型9

第一節 EKC模型9
第二節 時間序列分析方法11
3.2.1 時間序列資料單根檢定11
3.2.2 共整合分析13
3.3 短期誤差修正模型14

第四章 資料15

第一節 資料來源及說明15
第二節 二氧化碳排放效率與密集度分析 23

第五章 實證分析27

第一節 單根檢定 27
5.1.1 自然對數值單根檢定 27
5.1.2 成長率單根檢定28
第二節 共整合檢定37
第三節 長期均衡及短期調整分析40
5.3.1 自然對數值長期均衡與短期調整OLS迴歸分析41
5.3.1.1自然對數值長期均衡OLS迴歸分析結果42
5.3.1.2自然對數值短期調整OLS迴歸分析結果45
5.3.2 成長率長期均衡OLS迴歸分析結果46
第六章 結論與建議57

參考文獻59

附錄62

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