(3.238.249.17) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/04/14 13:48
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:鄭尊元
研究生(外文):Cheng Tsun-Yuan
論文名稱:策略性投資決策、Bayesian學習與實質選擇權
論文名稱(外文):Strategic investment decisions, Bayesian learning and real options
指導教授:梁恕梁恕引用關係鄭宗松鄭宗松引用關係
指導教授(外文):Liang ShuCheng Tsung-Sung
口試委員:溫福星廖四郎姜一銘
口試委員(外文):Wen Fur-HsingLiao Szu-LangJiang I-Ming
口試日期:2013-05-13
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:國際經營與貿易學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:貿易學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2013
畢業學年度:101
語文別:中文
論文頁數:63
中文關鍵詞:貝式學習主動學習實質選擇權不確定性
外文關鍵詞:Bayesian learningactive learningreal optionuncerntainty
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:121
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
在現今決策廠商面對著技術與市場導向的因素下,被動的等到訊息到來已不足夠;在不明朗的市場下,越來越多的產業透過積極主動的姿態學習去獲取資訊、將此不確定性轉換成利潤是產業間關注的議題。
廠商經營需要有一個長期的想法,以隨時採取主動了解消費者的想法和需求,以保持或是提高公司的價值維持在產業裡的競爭力,貝式學習被廣泛應用在其他議題,但卻鮮少運用在行銷管理領域,本研究即探討以財務面的實質選擇權加上主動學習應用在管理方面的範疇;
另一方面,除了常用的貝式學習所應用的遞延選擇權外,我們還考慮當市場景氣長期不佳時,持續遞延所浪費的成本也是很可觀,因為考慮了放棄選擇權的概念,及早放棄計畫將計畫剩餘的殘值收回,將傷害降到最低。
用遞延以及放棄選擇權兩種不同的角度來探討經由主動的學習、增加彈性價值、使得廠商的獲利增加;即使在投資環境預期將走長期空頭時,也能即早放棄計畫,收回更多的殘值將傷害降到最低;並使用蒙地卡羅 (Monte Carlo Analysis)模擬,以分析被動學習與主動學習對廠商利益的差別。

And in today's decision-maker faces technical and market-oriented factors, the passive until the arrival of the message is no longer enough; in uncertain market, more and more of the industry through a proactive stance to learn to access to information, this uncertainty into inter-industry profits are issues of concern.
Operating companies need to have a long-term idea to always take the initiative to understand the ideas and needs of consumers, in order to maintain or increase the company's value in the industry in maintaining the competitiveness of Bayesian learning is widely used in other issues, but few little used in the field of marketing management, this study explores the financial side of real options plus active learning applications in the management category;
On the other hand, in addition to the commonly used Bayesian learning applied deferred option, we also consider the long term when the market sentiment is poor, the cost of continuing deferred waste is also very impressive, considering the option to abandon the concept of plan early to give up plans to withdraw the remaining residual value will minimize the damage.
Deferred, and to renounce the option to use two different angles to explore through active learning, increase elasticity value, making the firm profit increase; even in long-term investment environment is expected to go short, they can give up the plan of immediate early recover more residual value will minimize the damage; and using Monte Carlo (Monte Carlo Analysis) simulations to analyze passive learning and active learning differences of interest for manufacturers

第一章 緒論
第一節 研究背景與動機----------------------------------1
第二節 研究架構----------------------------------------4
第二章 文獻回顧
第一節 行銷的績效與成本-------------------------------6
第二節 實質選擇權-------------------------------------8
第三節 商譽-------------------------------------------13
第四節 貝式學習---------------------------------------17
第三章 研究方法
第一節 離散時間方法-----------------------------------19
第二節 連續時間方法-----------------------------------22
第三節 被動學習---------------------------------------25
第四節 主動學習---------------------------------------27
第五節 放棄選擇權-------------------------------------28
第六節 模型比較---------------------------------------32
第四章 敏感性分析與蒙地卡羅模擬
第一節 參數定義--------------------------------------34
第二節 等待選擇權敏感性分析--------------------------35
第三節 放棄選擇權敏感性分析------------------------38
第四節 波動度敏感性分析----------------------------41
第五節 蒙地卡羅模擬--------------------------------50
第五章 結論與管理意涵
第一節 敏感性分析結論----------------------------56
第二節 蒙地卡羅模擬結論--------------------------57
第三節 經濟意涵----------------------------------59
第六章 研究限制與建議-------------------------------60

1.Aaker, David (1996), Building Strong Brands. New York, NY: Free Press.
2.Barth, Mary E., Ron Kasznik, and M.F. McNichols (2001), "Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets " Journal of Accounting Research, 39 (1), 1-34
3.Baudry.M. A Real option model with bayesian learning and its application to environmental preservation.(2001)
4.Baudry.M. Precautionary principle and the cost benefit analysis of innovative projects.(2011) Working Papers hal-00570317, HAL.
5.Bernnn,M.J. ; Schwartz, Eduardo S. ,1985, Evaluating Natural Resource Investments, Journal of Business, 58(2),135-157.
6.Black, Fischer; Myron Scholes (1973). "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities". Journal of Political Economy 81 (3): 637–654.
7.Bonoma, T.V. and B. H. Clark, Marketing Performance Assessment, 1988,
Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
8.Clark, B.H., Marketing Performance Measures: History and Interrelationships,Journal of Marketing Management, Vol. 15, 1999, pp.711-732
9.Davids, M., How to Avoid the 10 Biggest Mistake in CRM, Journal of Business Strategy, Vol.1999
10.Dixit, A. K., and Pindyck, R.S. (1995). The option approach to capital investment.
11.Dixit, A., “The art of smooth pasting”, in J. Lesourne and H. Sonnenschein, eds., Fundamentals of pure and applied economics, Vol 55, Chur Switzerland: Harwood Academic Press. (1993)
12.Dumas, B. (1991), “Super Contact and related Optimality Conditions”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 15, 675-685.Financial Management, 22(3), 202-224.
13.Foster, G. and Gupta, M. (1994), Marketing, cost management and management accounting, Journal of Management Accounting Research, 6(4):43-77.
14.Fukumizu,K. atistical active learning in multilayer perceptrons. IEEE Transactions on Neural etworks, 11(1):17–26, 2000.Harvard Business Review, 62, 56-68.
15.Gruca, T. S., & Rego, L. L. (2005). Customer satisfaction, cash flow, and shareholder value. Journal of Marketing, 69 (July), 115-130.
16.Heskett, J. L., Jones, T. O., Loveman, G. W., Sasser, W. E. Jr. and Schlesinger L. A. (1994),Putting the service profit chain to work, Harvard Business Review, March-April: 164-74.
17.Homburg, C., Artz, M. and Wieseke, J. (2012), Marketing performance measurement systems: does comprehensiveness really improve performance, Journal of Marketing,76(3):56-77..
18.Kalakota, R. and M. Robinson, E-Business 2.0: Roadmap for Success, 2001,2nd ed., Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley.
19.Kandell, J., CRM, ERM, one-to-one Decoding Relationship Management Theory and technology, Trusts & Estates, Vol. 139, No. 4, 2000,
20.Keller, Kevin Lane (1998), Strategic Brand Management. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Publishing Inc.
21.Kelly D. L., Kolstad, C. D., 1999. Bayesian Learning, Growth and Pollution. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 23, 491-518.
22.Kontoghiorghes, C. (2003),Examining the association between quality and productivity performance in a service organization. The Quality Management Journal, 10(1): 32-42.
23.Krause.A and Guestrin.C. Nonmyopic active learning of gaussian processes: an exploitation approach. In ICML ’07: Proceedings of the 24th international conference on Machine learning, pages 449–456, New York, NY, USA, 2007. ACM.
24.Leone, Robert P. (1995), "Generalizing What is Known about Temporal Aggregation and Advertising Carryover," Marketing Science, 14 (3, Part 2 of 2: Special Issue on Empirical Generalizations in Marketing)
25.Mason, S.P. & R.C. Merton (1985): The Role of Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance Recents Advances in Corporate Finance, eds: E. Altman &M. Subrahmanyam. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin, pp.7-54
26.McDonald, R. and D. R. Siegel (1986), “The Value of Waiting to Invest”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 101, 707-727.
27.Morgan, N.A., B.H. Clark and R. Gooner, Marketing Productivity, Marketing Audits and Systems for Marketing Performance Assessment:Integrating Multiple Perspectives. Journal of Business Research, Vol.55, 2002, pp.363-375.
28.Morgan, N.A., B.H. Clark and R. Gooner, Marketing Productivity, Marketing Audits and Systems for Marketing Performance Assessment:Integrating Multiple Perspectives. Journal of Business Research, Vol.
29.Myers, S.C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, 147-175.
30.Neely, A., Gregory, M. and Platts, K. (1995), Performance measurement system design a literature review and research agenda, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 15(4):80-116.
31.O’Sullivan, D. and Abela, A. V.(2007), Marketing performance measurement ability and firm performance, Journal of Marketing, 71 (4):79-93.
32.Peppers, D., M. Rogers and B. Dorf, The One to One Field Book: The Complete Toolkit for Implementing a 1 to 1 Marketing Program,1999a, 1st ed., New York: Currency Doubleday.
33.Peppers, D., M. Rogers, and B. Dorf, Is Your Company Ready for One-to-One Marketing? Harvard Business Review, Jan./Feb. 1999b,pp.151-160.
34.Pindyck, Robert S. (1991), “Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment journal of economic literature,”Journal of Economic Literature,29(3),pp.1110-1148
35.Rust R. T., Lemon, K. N. and Zeithaml, V. A. (2004), Return on marketing: using customer equity to focus marketing strategy, Journal of Marketing, 68(1):109-127.
36.Schein A. I. Active Learning for Logistic Regression. PhD thesis, University of Pennsylvania,2005.
37.Silvestro, R. and Cross, S. (2000),Applying the service profit chain in a retail environment: challenging the “satisfaction mirror” ,International Journal of Service Industry Management, 11(3):244-268.
38.Smit, H. T. J., and Trigeorgis, L. G. (2004). Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
39.Soteriou , A. and Zenios , S. A. (1999),Operations, quality, and profitability in the provision of banking services, Management Science, 45(9): 1221-1238.
40.Srivastava, Rajendra K., Tasadduq A. Shervani, and Liam Fahey (1998), "Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Framework for Analysis," The Journal of Marketing, 62 (1), 2-18.47---- (1999), "Marketing, Business Processes, and Shareholder Value: An Organizationally Embedded View of Marketing Activities and the Discipline of Marketing," Journal of Marketing,63 (Special Issue),
41.Trigeorgis, L. (1993). Real Option and Interactions with Financial Flexibility.
42.Ulph, A., Ulph, D., 1997. Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning. The Economic Journal 107, 636-650
43.Yelkur, R., Customer Satisfaction and the Services Marketing Mix, Journal of Professional Service Marketing, Vol. 21, 2000, pp.105-115.
44.Zineldin, M. and Bredenlöw, T. (2001), Performance measurement and management control positioning strategies, quality and productivity: a case study of a swedish bank, Managerial Auditing Journal, 16(9): 484-499.

QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
無相關期刊
 
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔