本研究擬採用階層線性模式來探討政治不穩定與中學入學率之間的關係，並檢測經濟因素及文化因素的干擾效果；並以Marshall (2011)所整理之政治動亂主要事件指標 (MEPV)做為政治不穩定度的代理變數，以世界銀行 (Worldbank)所提供的中學入學率作為人力資本的代理變數，以人均國民所得做為經濟因素的代理變數，及以女男生入學比率和25歲以上不識字率人口數做為文化因素的代理變數。階層線性模式檢測的結果發現，在置入每人公共醫療支出、每人公共教育支出、失業率、貧窮比例做為控制變數的情況下，以人均國民所得、女男入學率及25歲以上不識字率人口數比例為干擾變數時，國家的政治不穩定指標對中學入學率的相關斜率會隨之不同，亦即政治不穩定度影響中學入學率的程度會隨著人均國民所得、女男入學率及25歲以上不識字率人口數比例的高低而變化。

This study explored the relationship between Secondary school enrollment and political instability, and tested the moderating effects of economic and cultural factors using hierarchical linear model. The major episodes of political violence (MEPV) from Marshall (2011) was used as a proxy variable for political instability; the secondary school enrollment rate from World Bank (Worldbank) was used as a proxy variable for human capital; GDP per capita and ratio of female to male secondary enrollment and Literacy rate is not over 25 years old population from World Bank were used as a proxy variable for economic factors and cultural factors, respectively.Health expenditure per capita amd Public expenditure on education per capita and Unemployment total and Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line was put in the first-level regression as a control variable. The results from HLM showed that the slope between the MEPV indicators and secondary school enrollment rate is changing according to the values of GDP per capita, ratio of female to male secondary enrollment and illiteracy rate of over 25-year old population.

誌謝 I
中文摘要 II
Abstract III
目次 IV
第一章 緒論 6
1.1研究背景與動機 6
1.2研究目的 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
2.1 人力資本相關研究 7
2.2中學入學率之相關研究 8
2.3教育之相關研究 9
2.3.1父母之相關研究 9
2.3.2教育程度之相關研究 9
2.3.3家庭收入之相關研究 9
2.3.4性別之相關研究 10
2.4人力資本與經濟之相關研究 11
第三章 研究方法 16
3.1研究對象 17
3.2研究架構 21
3.3資料分析與統計方法 23
3.3.1.隨機效果的單因子變異數分析模式 23
3.3.2.隨機效果單因子共變數分析模式 24
3.3.3.隨機迴歸係數模式 24
3.3.4.完整模式 25
3.4 組平減與共線性問題 27
第四章 實證結果與分析 27
4.1、隨機效果的單因子變異數分析模式 28
4.2 隨機效果單因子共變數分析模式 30
4.3隨機迴歸係數模式 34
4.3.1 隨機迴歸係數模式之政治不穩定度(因素2) 34
4.3.2 隨機迴歸係數模式之結果 37
4.4完整模式 37
4.4.1控制變項為每人醫療支出費用(因素2) 38
4.4.2控制變項為失業率(因素2) 40
4.4.3控制變項為貧窮比例(因素2) 42
4.4.4 完整模式之結果 44
第五章 結論 46
5.1 結論 46
參考文獻 50
附錄 54

表目錄
表2.1 文獻探討彙整 13
表3.1.1 控制變數的最大值與最小值 18
表3.1.2 獨立變數的最大值與最小值 20
表3.1.3 干擾變數的最大值與最小值 21
表3.2.1 因素分析法 22
表4.1 隨機效果的單因子變異數分析模式 30
表4.2 隨機效果單因子共變數分析模式 34
表4.3 隨機迴歸係數模式之政治不穩定度(因素2) 36
表4.4.1 完整模式(控制變項為每人醫療支出,預測變項為大區域國內動亂指標) 40
表4.4.2 完整模式(控制變項為失業率,預測變項為大區域國內動亂指標) 42
表4.4.3 完整模式(控制變項為貧窮比例,預測變項為大區域國內動亂指標) 44
表5.1 完整模式之統整 47
表A-1 控制變項為每人醫療支出費用之樣本國家 54
表A-2 控制變項為每人公共教育支出費用之樣本國家 55
表A-3 控制變項為失業率之樣本國家 56
表A-4 控制變項為貧窮比例之樣本國家 57
表B-1 隨機迴歸係數模式之政治不穩定度(因素1) 59
表B-2 隨機迴歸係數模式之政治不穩定度(因素3) 60
表B-3 隨機迴歸係數模式之政治不穩定度(因素4) 61
表C-1 完整模式(控制變項為每人醫療支出,預測變項為鄰接國及大區域國際動亂指標) 62
表C-2 完整模式(控制變項為每人醫療支出,預測變項為鄰接國國內動亂指標) 63
表C-3 完整模式(控制變項為每人醫療支出,預測變項為國內種族動亂指標) 64
表D-1 完整模式(控制變項為失業率，預測變項為鄰接國及大區域國際動亂指標) 65
表D-2 完整模式(控制變項為失業率,預測變項為鄰接國國內動亂指標) 66
表D-3 完整模式(控制變項為失業率,預測變項為國內種族動亂指標) 67
表E-1 完整模式(控制變項為貧窮比例,預測變項為鄰接國及大區域國際動亂指標) 68
表E-2 完整模式(控制變項為貧窮比例,預測變項為鄰接國國內動亂指標) 69
表E-3 完整模式(控制變項為貧窮比例,預測變項為國內種族動亂指標) 70

圖目錄
圖3.2 研究架構圖 23

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