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研究生:蔡明學
研究生(外文):Tsai, Ming-Hsueh
論文名稱:核能、其他能源與經濟成長關聯性研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study of Relationship among Nuclear, Other Energy and Economic Growth
指導教授:陳和全陳和全引用關係
指導教授(外文):Chen, Ho-Chyuan
口試委員:黃柏農李偉銘張瑞娟
口試委員(外文):Huang, Bwo-NungLee, Wei-MingJui-Chuan Della Chang
口試日期:2014-06-25
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:國際經濟研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:58
中文關鍵詞:經濟成長
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:35
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
自從1973年石油危機後,石油進口國們開始找尋便宜的替代能源。為了尋找穩定、安全且潔淨的替代能源,很多國家開始建造核電廠以減少對石油的依賴。近年來,化石燃料等能源所造成的溫室氣體排放的問題已經開始受到關注,以及國際市場的高波動石油價格對高度能源進口國的影響等環境相關議題愈來愈受到重視。台灣由於天然資源稀少,自產能源匱乏,再加上地小人稠等因素,能源供給的問題一直是限制台灣經濟發展之主因。因此可以得知目前台灣以低碳能源為訴求的替代能源中比重最高的為核能,但是核能的使用卻有安全的隱憂,像是近年來爆發的日本福島核輻射外洩事件,核安問題開始受到重視。
而目前國內外文獻沒有探討台灣經濟成長與核能、其他能源之關係,因此本研究選取不同的變數來探討經濟成長與核能的關係外,還探討其他能源與核能的關係是否會因此影響經濟成長,以利日後制定相關能源政策。而本研究是先利用單根檢定判定變數是否為定態。若變數為非定態且具有相同整合階次,則利用共整合檢定來判斷變數間是否有共整合關係,若有則使用VECM模型探討Granger因果性檢定,探討變數間之因果關係;若沒有共整合關係,則使用未限制VAR模型探討Granger因果性檢定。本研究得出變數間沒有共整合關係,因此使用未限制VAR模型探討Granger因果性檢定,得出有顯著證據證明核能發電與實質國內生產毛額之間具有雙向回饋(feedback)的因果關係;原油及石油與實質國內生產毛額並無因果關係;煤及煤產品與實質國內生產毛額之間具有實質國內生產毛額影響煤及煤產品之單向因果關係;天然氣與實質國內生產毛額之間具有實質國內生產毛額影響天然氣之單向因果關係。

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與目的 1
第二節 論文架構與研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第三章 研究方法 10
第一節 單根檢定 10
(一) ADF單根檢定(Augmented Dickey and Fuller) 12
(二) Phillips-Perron單根檢定 15
(三) KPSS單根檢定法(Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmide and Shin, 1992) 16
第二節 共整合檢定 18
(一) Engle-Granger兩階段共整合檢定法 18
(二) Johansen共整合檢定 19
第三節 Granger因果關係檢定 21
第四章 實證結果與分析 25
第一節 資料來源敘述 25
第二節 敘述統計 27
第三節 單根檢定 29
第四節 共整合檢定與誤差修正模型 32
第五節 Granger因果關係檢定 34
第五章 結論與建議 38
第一節 研究結論 38
第二節 研究限制與建議 41
參考文獻 42
附錄 49

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