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研究生(外文):Janina-Mae-Almirez Diaz
論文名稱(外文):Strategic Behavior of Philippine Manufacturing Industry in Response to Exogenous Shocks
指導教授(外文):Shih-Mo Lin
外文關鍵詞:Tohoku earthquakePhilippine manufacturinginput output analysisAsian input-output table
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本研究採用多國產業關聯表來探討當日本311震災此類國外重大災害發生時,會對菲律賓經濟造成多大影響,並將該國可能的經濟損失與亞洲鄰國比較。若菲律賓製造業子部門的經濟損失大於其他國家則意謂著該部門具有經濟脆弱性 (sectoral vulnerabilities)。本研究估算結果相當接近真實數據,估算誤差在可接受範圍,這表示產業關聯分析 (input output analysis) 有助於預估各部門的可能經濟損失、探討部門之經濟脆弱性程度、及評估各國彼此間的經濟依賴程度。所以,公私部門決策者可在重大災害發生後,利用產業關聯分析模擬可能發生之經濟衝擊效果,據以制定應變策略。
本文估算結果顯示,當日本311震災發生,對亞洲各國經濟都造成一定的負面影響,按照國家經濟損失比率(percentage of output loss)由大到小排列,國家順序為:菲律賓、新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、台灣、韓國、中國、印尼、美國。若比較所有部門的產值損失,以絕對值 (部門產值損失) 來看,「電力、機械設備製造業 (electrical machinery sector)」 的經濟損失最大;若以比率值 (部門產值損失/總產出) 來看,是「除電力、機械之外的設備製造業 (machinery except electrical)」及「其他製造業 (other manufacturing products)」受到的衝擊最嚴重。最不受影響的部門則有「食品、飲料及菸草製造業 (food, beverage and tobacco)」和「石油及其製品業 (petroleum and petro products)」不論是以絕對值或以比率值來看。就研究結果顯示,菲律賓對國外的經濟依賴程度相當高,一旦國外發生事故易造成該國經濟重大衝擊,建議向鄰國馬來西亞、印尼和泰國學習,並進一步探討如何強化它脆弱性高的部門。
This study was conducted to quantify the inter-industry transmission effects of the Tohoku earthquake on the Philippines, and compare the country’s estimated economic losses to those of its Asian neighbors. It also aims to reveal sectoral vulnerabilities in the Philippine manufacturing industry. The simulation results are fairly close to actual data, indicating that input output analysis is reliable in predicting economic losses, sectoral vulnerabilities, and dependencies of countries with each other, so that governments and the private sector may have insights on how they should prepare for exogenous shocks.
From largest to smallest percentage of output loss, the countries can be listed in this order: Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, China, Indonesia, and USA. The greatest output and GDP losses were estimated for the electrical machinery sector as measured in dollar value. Measured in percentage, the greatest output losses were estimated for machinery except electrical, and other manufacturing products. The least output losses measured in both percentage and dollar value were estimated for food, beverage and tobacco, and petroleum and petro products. The Philippines should learn from the countries which showed economic resilience, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, and should explore ways on how to strengthen its vulnerable sectors.
Table of Contents
中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
Acknowledgements iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 History of the Philippines’ Manufacturing Industry 1
1.2 Importance of the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippine Economy 2
1.3 Case Study: Japan Earthquake’s Expected Impact on the Philippine Economy 4
1.4 Motivation and Purpose of the Study 5
1.5 Main Contribution 5
1.6 Research Framework 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 8
2.1 The Economic Impact of Japan’s Earthquake 8
2.2 The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Global Supply Chains 8
2.3 Strategies for Supply Chain Risk Mitigation 9
2.4 The Role of the Government and the Private Sector 12
Chapter 3 Methodology 14
3.1 Input-Output Analysis (IOA) 14
3.2 Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis (MRIO) 16
3.3 Asian Input-Output Table 18
Chapter 4 Results and Discussions 21
4.1 Overall Economic Impact of the Earthquake on Asian Countries 22
4.2 Impact on the Philippine Manufacturing Sectors 34
Chapter 5 Industry Analysis 43
5.1 History of the Philippine Electronics Industry 43
5.2 Ten Subsectors of the Philippine Electronics Industry 45
5.3 Characteristics Of The Industry 47
5.4 Government Support and Policies 49
Chapter 6 Conclusions 51
References 54
Appendix 59

List of Tables
Table 1 Risk Mitigating Strategies in Supply Chains 11
Table 2 Sector Classification of the Model for Manufacturing 20
Table 3 The Multiplier Effect 22
Table 4 Estimated Changes in Output and Actual Changes to GDP Growth Rates* 23

List of Figures
Fig.1 Research Framework 7
Fig. 2 Multidirectional Trade MRIO Model 18
Fig. 3 The Schematic Image of the Asian International Input-Output Table 18
Fig. 4 Estimation Error* 24
Fig. 5 Total Output Lossa and GDP Lossb of Each Sector 34
Fig. 6 Total Estimated Output Loss as a Percentage 35
Fig. 7 Exports Statistics of the Philippines’ Top Five Industries from 2010 to 2011 37
Fig. 8 Estimation Error based on Gross Value Added from Q1 to Q2 of 2011 38
Fig. 9 Historical Freight on Board (FOB) Value of Philippine Electronics Exports 44
Fig. 10 The Changing Face of Exports 44
Fig. 11 The Subsectors’ Share in the Philippines’ Exports of Electronics Products 47
Fig. 12 Firms’ Country of Origin in the Philippines’ Electronics Industry 47
Appendix Fig. 1 Estimated Changes in Output and Actual Changes to GDP Growth Rates* 59
Appendix Fig. 2 Philippine’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 59
Appendix Fig. 3 Malaysia’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 60
Appendix Fig. 4 Singapore’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 60
Appendix Fig. 5 Thailand’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 61
Appendix Fig. 6 Taiwan’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 61
Appendix Fig. 7 Korea’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 62
Appendix Fig. 8 China’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 62
Appendix Fig. 9 Indonesia’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 63
Appendix Fig. 10 USA’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 63
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