(3.227.208.0) 您好!臺灣時間:2021/04/18 13:29
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果

詳目顯示:::

我願授權國圖
: 
twitterline
研究生:狄美
研究生(外文):Janina-Mae-Almirez Diaz
論文名稱:外生衝擊下菲律賓製造業之策略行為
論文名稱(外文):Strategic Behavior of Philippine Manufacturing Industry in Response to Exogenous Shocks
指導教授:林師模林師模引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shih-Mo Lin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中原大學
系所名稱:國際商學碩士學位學程
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:貿易學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:70
中文關鍵詞:亞洲產業關聯表投入產出分析菲律賓製造業日本東北大地震
外文關鍵詞:Tohoku earthquakePhilippine manufacturinginput output analysisAsian input-output table
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:94
  • 評分評分:系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔系統版面圖檔
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
本研究採用多國產業關聯表來探討當日本311震災此類國外重大災害發生時,會對菲律賓經濟造成多大影響,並將該國可能的經濟損失與亞洲鄰國比較。若菲律賓製造業子部門的經濟損失大於其他國家則意謂著該部門具有經濟脆弱性 (sectoral vulnerabilities)。本研究估算結果相當接近真實數據,估算誤差在可接受範圍,這表示產業關聯分析 (input output analysis) 有助於預估各部門的可能經濟損失、探討部門之經濟脆弱性程度、及評估各國彼此間的經濟依賴程度。所以,公私部門決策者可在重大災害發生後,利用產業關聯分析模擬可能發生之經濟衝擊效果,據以制定應變策略。
本文估算結果顯示,當日本311震災發生,對亞洲各國經濟都造成一定的負面影響,按照國家經濟損失比率(percentage of output loss)由大到小排列,國家順序為:菲律賓、新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、台灣、韓國、中國、印尼、美國。若比較所有部門的產值損失,以絕對值 (部門產值損失) 來看,「電力、機械設備製造業 (electrical machinery sector)」 的經濟損失最大;若以比率值 (部門產值損失/總產出) 來看,是「除電力、機械之外的設備製造業 (machinery except electrical)」及「其他製造業 (other manufacturing products)」受到的衝擊最嚴重。最不受影響的部門則有「食品、飲料及菸草製造業 (food, beverage and tobacco)」和「石油及其製品業 (petroleum and petro products)」不論是以絕對值或以比率值來看。就研究結果顯示,菲律賓對國外的經濟依賴程度相當高,一旦國外發生事故易造成該國經濟重大衝擊,建議向鄰國馬來西亞、印尼和泰國學習,並進一步探討如何強化它脆弱性高的部門。
This study was conducted to quantify the inter-industry transmission effects of the Tohoku earthquake on the Philippines, and compare the country’s estimated economic losses to those of its Asian neighbors. It also aims to reveal sectoral vulnerabilities in the Philippine manufacturing industry. The simulation results are fairly close to actual data, indicating that input output analysis is reliable in predicting economic losses, sectoral vulnerabilities, and dependencies of countries with each other, so that governments and the private sector may have insights on how they should prepare for exogenous shocks.
From largest to smallest percentage of output loss, the countries can be listed in this order: Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, China, Indonesia, and USA. The greatest output and GDP losses were estimated for the electrical machinery sector as measured in dollar value. Measured in percentage, the greatest output losses were estimated for machinery except electrical, and other manufacturing products. The least output losses measured in both percentage and dollar value were estimated for food, beverage and tobacco, and petroleum and petro products. The Philippines should learn from the countries which showed economic resilience, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, and should explore ways on how to strengthen its vulnerable sectors.
Table of Contents
中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
Acknowledgements iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 History of the Philippines’ Manufacturing Industry 1
1.2 Importance of the Manufacturing Sector in the Philippine Economy 2
1.3 Case Study: Japan Earthquake’s Expected Impact on the Philippine Economy 4
1.4 Motivation and Purpose of the Study 5
1.5 Main Contribution 5
1.6 Research Framework 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 8
2.1 The Economic Impact of Japan’s Earthquake 8
2.2 The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Global Supply Chains 8
2.3 Strategies for Supply Chain Risk Mitigation 9
2.4 The Role of the Government and the Private Sector 12
Chapter 3 Methodology 14
3.1 Input-Output Analysis (IOA) 14
3.2 Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis (MRIO) 16
3.3 Asian Input-Output Table 18
Chapter 4 Results and Discussions 21
4.1 Overall Economic Impact of the Earthquake on Asian Countries 22
4.2 Impact on the Philippine Manufacturing Sectors 34
Chapter 5 Industry Analysis 43
5.1 History of the Philippine Electronics Industry 43
5.2 Ten Subsectors of the Philippine Electronics Industry 45
5.3 Characteristics Of The Industry 47
5.4 Government Support and Policies 49
Chapter 6 Conclusions 51
References 54
Appendix 59

List of Tables
Table 1 Risk Mitigating Strategies in Supply Chains 11
Table 2 Sector Classification of the Model for Manufacturing 20
Table 3 The Multiplier Effect 22
Table 4 Estimated Changes in Output and Actual Changes to GDP Growth Rates* 23

List of Figures
Fig.1 Research Framework 7
Fig. 2 Multidirectional Trade MRIO Model 18
Fig. 3 The Schematic Image of the Asian International Input-Output Table 18
Fig. 4 Estimation Error* 24
Fig. 5 Total Output Lossa and GDP Lossb of Each Sector 34
Fig. 6 Total Estimated Output Loss as a Percentage 35
Fig. 7 Exports Statistics of the Philippines’ Top Five Industries from 2010 to 2011 37
Fig. 8 Estimation Error based on Gross Value Added from Q1 to Q2 of 2011 38
Fig. 9 Historical Freight on Board (FOB) Value of Philippine Electronics Exports 44
Fig. 10 The Changing Face of Exports 44
Fig. 11 The Subsectors’ Share in the Philippines’ Exports of Electronics Products 47
Fig. 12 Firms’ Country of Origin in the Philippines’ Electronics Industry 47
Appendix Fig. 1 Estimated Changes in Output and Actual Changes to GDP Growth Rates* 59
Appendix Fig. 2 Philippine’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 59
Appendix Fig. 3 Malaysia’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 60
Appendix Fig. 4 Singapore’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 60
Appendix Fig. 5 Thailand’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 61
Appendix Fig. 6 Taiwan’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 61
Appendix Fig. 7 Korea’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 62
Appendix Fig. 8 China’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 62
Appendix Fig. 9 Indonesia’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 63
Appendix Fig. 10 USA’s Quarterly GDP Growth Rates 63
References
ABS-CBN News. 2011. "Japan Quake Idles Ford, Toyota Units In Philippines." April 14. http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/04/13/11/japan-quake-idles-ford-toyota-units-ph (accessed December 23, 2013).
Ando, Mitsuyo, and Fukunari Kimura. 2012. "How did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Networks? The Global Financial Crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake." Asian Economic Journal Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 261-87.
Andrew, Robbie, Glen Peters, and James Lennox. 2009. "Approximation and Regional Aggregation in Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis for National Carbon Footprint Accounting." Economic Systems Research Vol. 21 No. 3, pp. 311-35.
Bangkok Post. 2011. "Impact Of Japan Crisis On Thai Economy." March 15. http://www. bangkokpost.com/learning/learning-from-news/226850/impact-of-japan-crisis-on-thai-economy (accessed March 03, 2014).
Batungbacal, Roberto. 2011. "The Strategic Importance of the Philippine Manufacturing Sector ." The Federation of Philippine Industries, October 6, 2011. pp. 1-6. http://fpi.ph/fpi.cms/News/The_Strategic_Importance_of_the_Philippine_Manufacturing_Sector_By_Roberto_F._Batungbacal.pdf
Bucklin, Louis P. 1965. "Postponement, Speculation and the Structure of Distribution Channels. " Journal of Marketing Research Vol. 2 No. 1. pp. 26-31.
Canis, Bill. 2011. The Motor Vehicle Supply Chain Effects of the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. Congressional Research Service
Chiang Min-Hua. 2012. "Taiwan’s Economy In 2011: Slower Growth And Further Dependence On China. " EAI Background Brief No. 690. January 13. http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/ bb690.pdf (accessed August 5, 2014).
China Daily. 2012. "China's 2011 GDP growth slows to 9.2%." January 17. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-01/17/content_14460323.htm (accessed August 5, 2014).
Chu, Kathy. 2013. "China Manufacturers Survive by Moving to Asian Neighbors." The Wall Street Journal. May 1. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB100014241278873237981 04578453073103566416 (accessed July 01, 2014).
Collins, Tara. 2012. "Great East Japan Earthquake: Economic and Trade Impact" Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. https://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/great-east-japan-earthquake-economic-and-trade-impact.pdf (accessed June 01, 2014).
Department of Trade and Industry. 2011 February 23. "The Philippine Electronics Industry Profile." http://www.philexport.ph/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=8659b363-97ff-4ffd-b7e8-364fa03c492f&groupId=127524 (accessed June 01, 2014).
Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan). 2014. http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=14616&CtNode=3566&mp=1 (accessed July 01, 2014).
Engineer Live. 2013. "Global Economic Impact of the Japanese Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster. " February 5. http://www.engineerlive.com/ content/23349 (accessed 03 12, 2014).
Forbes, Nathaniel. 2009. "Contingency Planning For Earthquakes In Asia." Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning Vol. 3 No. 4, pp. 356–367.
Fujimoto, Takahiro. 2011. "Supply Chain Competitiveness and Robustness: A Lesson from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Supply Chain Virtual Dualization." Manufacturing Management Research Center (MMRC) Discussion paper Series no. 362.
Geiger, Thierry. June 2011. The Indonesia Competitiveness Report 2011. World Economic Forum. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Indonesia_Report_2011.pdf (accessed August 6, 2014).
Ghosh, Ambica. 1958. "Input-Output Approach To An Allocation System." Economica, pp. 58-64.
Hayashi, Toshihiko. 2012. "Japan’s Post-Disaster Economic Reconstruction: From Kobe to Tohoku." Asian Economic Journal Vol. 26 No. 3, pp.189–210.
Horwich, George. 2000. "Economic Lessons From The Kobe Earthquake." Economic Development and Cultural Change Vol. 48 No. 3, pp. 521–542
Inada, Yoshihisa, and Hiroaki Irie. 2011. "The Economic Impact of The Northeast Pacific Coastal Earthquake on Kansai." Osaka: Asia Pacific Institute Research.
Indiatimes.com. 2010. "BPO: 6 Reasons Philippines Beats India." December 16. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ tech/slideshow/bpo/Strong-BPO-workforce/ itslideshow/7053128.cms (accessed December 29, 2013).
Intal, Ponciano S. Jr., and Edward See. 2005. "Whither the Philippine Manufacturing Sector: Looking Back, Way Forward." Meeting the Challenges of Globalization. Conference paper presented in Manila, Philippines.
International Monetary Fund. 2014. World Economic Outlook Databases. http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm (accessed July 29, 2014).
Jüttner, Uta, Helen Peck, and Martin Christopher. 2003. "Supply Chain Risk Management; Outlining an Agenda for Future Research." International Journal of Logistics: Research & Applications Vol. 6 No. 4, pp. 197-210.
Krishnan, Dorai, Angela Yeo, Martin Goh. 2011 April. "The Tohoku Earthquake – Could Businesses Have Been Better Prepared?" Compass Asia. http://www.jlta.com.au/docs/ JLTAsia_ compass_asia_Q111.pdf?201111231404 (accessed July 01, 2014).
Leontief, Wassily. 1936. "Quantitative Input–Output Relations In The Economic System of the United States." Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 105–125.
MacKenzie, Cameron A., Joost R. Santos, and Kash Barker. 2012. "Measuring Changes In International Production From A Disruption: Case Study Of The Japanese Earthquake And Tsunami." International Journal of Production Economics Vol. 138 No. 2, pp. 293–302.
Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe. 2010. "Exploring the Philippine Economic Landscape and Structural Change." Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper.
Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe. 2008. "An Input–Output Analysis of the Philippine BPO Industry." Asian-Pacific Economic Literature Vol. 22 No. 1, pp. 41–56.
Manila Bulletin. 2012. "Chemical exports to exceed $2B". January 26. http://www.gupta-verlag.com/general/news/industry/11116/PHILIPPINES-Chemical-exports-to-exceed-2-billion (accessed August 6, 2014).
Manuj, Ila, and John T. Mentzer. 2008. "Global Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies." International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management Vol. 38 No. 3, pp. 192-193.
Mathews, John A. and Dong-Sung Cho. 2007. Tiger Technology: The Creation Of A Semiconductor Industry In East Asia. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Mendoza, Patricia. 2011. "Rapid Impact Assessment of Financial and Economic Crisis on Poverty and Vulnerability in Belize and Dangriga." Belize City, Belize: Belargo Enterprises.
Miller, Ronald E., and Peter D. Blair. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Ministry of Economy Finance and Industry. 2012. "The Impact Of Japan Earthquake On The Global Economy." Paris: France. Tresor-Economics.
Ministry of Finance, Singapore. "Sustaining Economic Growth." http://app.mof.gov.sg/data/ cmsresource/SPOR/2012/SPOR%202012%20Chapter%201.pdf (accessed August 5, 2014).
Mukoyama, Hidehiko. 2012. "Japan-South Korea Economic Relations Grow Stronger in a Globalized Environment." Japan Research Institute, Center for Pacific Business Studies.
Nanto, Dick K., William H. Cooper, and J. Michael Donnelly. 2011. "Japan's 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: Economic Effects and Implications for the U.S." Congressional Research Service. March 31. www.crs.gov
National Statistics Office. 2011. Foreign Trade Statistics Of The Philippines. http://www.census. gov.ph/old/data/sectordata/sr12721tx.html (accessed January 20, 2014).
Norio, Okada, Yohio Kajitani, Peijun Shi, Hirokazu Tatano. 2011. The 2011 Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster: Overview and Comments. International Journal Disaster Risk Science Vol. 2 No. 1, pp. 34-42. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-011-0004-9 (accessed January 03, 2014).
Noy, Ilan. 2011. "The Economic Aftermath of the Recent Earthquake in Sendai, Japan." The European Business Review Vol 2. pp 2-6.
Official Journal of the European Union. 2011. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/ LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:168:0001:0001:EN:PDF. June 28 (accessed August 5, 2014).
Okuyama, Yasuhide. 2003. "Modeling Spatial Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Input-Output Approaches." Morgantown, WV, USA: European Commission, p. 130.
Padli, Jaharudin, and Muzafar Shah Habibullah. 2009. "Natural Disaster Death And Socio-Economic Factors In Selected Countries: A Panel Analysis." Asian Social Science Vol. 5 No. 4. pp. 65-71.
Park, YoungWon, Paul Hong, and James Jungbae Roh. 2013. "Supply Chain Lessons From The Catastrophic Natural Disaster In Japan." Business Horizons Vol. 56 No. 1, pp. 75-85.
People's Daily Online. March 24, 2011. "Malaysia Maintains GDP Forecast Despite Japan's Earthquake." http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90858/90863/7329776.html (accesed January 10, 2014)
People's Daily Online. January 30, 2012. "Philippine GDP growth slows to 3.7% in 2011on falling exports" http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7714727.html (accessed August 5, 2014).
Philippine National Statistics Coordination Board. 2014. Gross Value Added In Manufacturing By Industry Group. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/2014/1st2014/tables/ 10MFG_93SNA_Q1.pdf (accessed August 6, 2014).
Ramos, Nedelyn Magtibay, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe. 2010. "Exploring the Philippine Economic Landscape and Structural Change." Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, p. 1.
Samsung Economic Research Institute. 2012. Review of Korean Economy in 2011 http://www.seriworld.org/07/review.pdf (accessed August 6, 2014).
Senate Economic Planning Office Economic Report. 2012. “Philippine Economy: Sluggish in 2011, Bullish in 2012?” March. http://www.senate.gov.ph/publications/ER%202012-01%20-%20March%202012.pdf (accessed August 5, 2014).
Shoji, Masaaki. 2011 July 11. "Many Firms Moving To Southeast Asia After Quake." The Asahi Shimbun Digital. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/quake_tsunami/AJ201107113 850 (accessed June 25, 2014).
Teso, Yumi, and Ten, Daniel Kate. 2011 Nov 15. "Thai Floods May Shift Japan Investment to Indonesia, Vietnam." Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/2011-11-14/thai-floods-may-spur-japanese-manufacturers-to-shift-output-to-indonesia.html (accessed July 01, 2014).
The U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2012. Recent U.S. Economic Growth in Charts. .http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/Documents/ 20120502_EconomicGrowth.pdf. May.
Toyaa, Hideki, and Mark Skidmore. 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters." Economics Letters.
The Manufacturing Institute. 2009. "The Facts About Modern Manufacturing." Washington, DC.
Tukker, Arnold, and Erik Dietzenbacher. 2012. "Global Multiregional Input-Output Frameworks: And Introduction and Outlook. " Economic Systems Research, Vol. 25 No. 1, pp. 1-19.
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. 2014. Japan Country Analysis. http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja Washington D.C. July 31. (accessed August 05, 2014).
Upton, David M. 1994. "The management of manufacturing flexibility." California Management Review Vol. 36 No. 2, pp. 72-90.
Varangis, Panos, Sona Varma, and Angelique dePlaa. 2004. "Exogenous Shocks in Low Income Countries: Economic Policy Issues and the Role of the International Community." World Bank. November 20. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDEBTDEPT/ PolicyPapers/20747753/Varangis-Varma-dePlaa-Nehru.pdf (accessed January 01, 2014).
Wagner, Stephan M., and Christoph Bode. 2006. "An empirical investigation into supply chain vulnerability." Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management Vol. 12, pp. 301-312. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1478409207000052 (accessed January 01, 2014).
Wie, Thee Kian. January 4 2012. "The Indonesian economy in 2011: a precarious balance." http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/01/04/the-indonesian-economy-in-2011-a-precarious-balance/ (accessed August 6, 2014).
World Bank Group. 2013. http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups (accessed December 27, 2013).
QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
系統版面圖檔 系統版面圖檔