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研究生:陳博鋐
論文名稱:航空浮動票價與旅客訂票需求模式
論文名稱(外文):Dynamics of Airline Pricing and Modeling the Timing Choice to Book Airline Tickets
指導教授:溫傑華溫傑華引用關係
口試委員:陳方元楊志文
口試日期:2014-07-10
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:逢甲大學
系所名稱:運輸科技與管理學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:航線訂票羅吉特行程廉價航空
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廉價航空公司的旅客在旅程規劃時會考慮訂票時間。本研究主要目的在於了解廉價航空公司旅客訂票行為的影響,優惠方案是否有助於增加訂票人數,且不同類型的旅客(例如:商務與非商務旅客)對訂票時點的偏好有何差異。本研究針對台北到新加坡航線設計與調查問卷以取得相關資料,透過訂票模式找出重要影響因素。
本研究利用迴歸與連續羅吉特模式構建訂票時間點選擇模式。在連續羅吉特中使用三角函數來構建訂票時間點選擇模式,因訂票時間點為連續,並不適用於使用離散,而三角函數可以簡化模式複雜度。模式分析結果可了解旅客訂票時點的偏好,廉價航空公司可依不同族群研擬與評估航班出發日前的促銷優惠方案,讓旅客提前購票或吸引潛在客源訂位。尤其是廉價航空公司的淡季航班應該如何在季節來臨前,提出何種優惠方案以吸引旅客。依據迴規模式結果可知,低成本航空公司於連續假日前一天的票價相較於連續假日貴,且距離出發日前一禮拜票價相較於更便宜。依據連續多項羅吉特結果可知,年長者旅客相較於年輕旅客來更早購買機票,可能原因年長者旅客相較於年輕旅客更早安排規畫行程,屬於服務業旅客相較於其他行業旅客來更早購買機票,可能原因服務業相較於其他行業特休假期來得更少,使服務業旅客必須更早確定行程購買機票,休閒觀光旅客相較於其他旅次目的旅客更容易受到票價影響,一週上網查詢機票頻率越高的旅客相較於一週上網查詢機票頻率較低的旅客,更容易掌握到航空公司優惠資訊,根據以上結果我們可以建議航空公司,航空公司的票價優惠可以更早實施優惠方案,更能夠吸引年長者旅客、服務業旅客、休閒觀光旅客來提早購買機票,也建議航空公司可以增加票價優惠資訊通路,使一週上網查詢機票頻率較低的旅客能夠得知票價優惠資訊,以至於吸引更多旅客購買機票。
Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Problem and Objective 4
1.3 Research Method 5
1.4 Flow Chart 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review 7
2.1 Low-cost Airline Operations 7
2.2 Airline Revenue Management and Fares 8
2.3 Booking time 11
2.4 Continuous logit model 13
Chapter 3 Methodology 14
3.1 Choice Modeling on Flight Booking Time 15
Chapter 4 Data Collection 19
4.1 Survey Design and Questionnaire 19
4.2 Sample Characteristics 20
4.3 Airfares and seat availability 24
4.3.1 Airfares patterns 25
4.3.2 Seats availability patterns 28
Chapter 5 Empirical Results 31
5.1 Result of the airfares regression model 31
5.2 Result of the booking time continuous logit model 33
Chapter 6 Conclusions 39
6.1 Summary of Results and Findings 39
6.2 Contributions 41
6.3 Limitations and directions for future research 42
References 43
Appendix I-Questionnaire 46
References
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