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研究生:文氏璧
研究生(外文):Bich, Van Thi
論文名稱:油價對越南貿易收支在1990年至2011年期間之影響
論文名稱(外文):Impact of oil price on trade balance in Vietnam from 1990 to 2011
指導教授:蘇明鴻蘇明鴻引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shu, Ming Hung
口試委員:洪振虔薛明憲
口試日期:2014-06-05
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄應用科技大學
系所名稱:製造與管理外國學生碩士專班
學門:工程學門
學類:機械工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:58
外文關鍵詞:trade balance, vecm
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Impact of oil price on trade balance in Vietnam from 1990 to 2011
Student: Van Thi Bich Advisors: Dr. Ming-Hung Shu

Institute of Industrial Engineering and Management
National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences
Abstract
The goal of this thesis is to evaluate the impact of oil prices on Vietnam’s trade balance in the short run and long run. The author examined the potential relationship between variables, which are oil price, output gap and exchange rate by using vector error correction model (VECM) and co-integration technique. Author used annual data for the period 1990 – 2011 and include exchange rate, output gap as additional determinants of trade balance. The author has found out evidence of a long run and short run relationship between oil price and trade balance. The result shows that the oil prices have negative relationship with trade balance. More specifically, a one-percent increase in the oil prices and exchange rate causes the trade balance to fall by 2.34% and 2.38% respectively in the long run. On the contrary, the results reveal that the output gap have positive relationship with trade balance. These findings allow some recommendations and suggestions to reduce negative effects of oil shocks on Vietnam’s trade balance.


Keywords: Oil price, Trade balance, VECM, Vietnam.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract i
Acknowledgments ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iii
LIST OF TABLE x
LIST OF FIGURES xi
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Research Background 7
1.3 Research Objectives 10
1.4 Organization of this study 11
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 Introduction 12
2.2 Literature Review 12
2.3 Theoretical Background 17
2.3.1 Trade balance 18
2.3.2 Exchange rate 18
2.3.3 Oil price 19
2.3.4 Output gap 19
2.4 Summary 20
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 21
3.1 Introduction 21
3.2 Research Framework and Research Hypotheses 22
3.2.1 Research Framework 22
3.2.2 Research Hypotheses 24
3.3 Data Collection Procedures 23
3.3.1 Research Problem and Objectives 23
3.3.2 Data description and observation 23
3.4 Data Analysis Method 24
3.4.1 Unit root tests 25
3.4.2 Co-integration test 26
3.4.3 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) 28
3.5 Conclusion 31
CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS 32
4.1 Introduction 32
4.2 Analysis Results 32
4.2.1 Results unit root test 32
4.2.2 Co-integration test results 36
4.2.2.1 Trace test result 36
4.2.2.2 Maximum-Eigen Value Test result 37
4.2.3 Long run and short run relationship 39
4.2.3.1 Long run relationship 39
4.2.3.2 Short run relationship 42
4.3 Summary 46
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION 48
5.1 Conclusion 48
5.2 Managerial Implication 49

5.2 Research Contribution 49
5.3 Limitations and Future Research 51
5.4 Summary 52
Reference 54
Website reference 58


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 OPEC oil reserves 2012 2
Table 3.1 The variables which is used in the study 25
Table 4.1 Unit root tests on level and first differences 35
Table 4.2 Johansen Co-integration Test (Trace Test) 38
Table 4.3 Johansen Co-integration Test (Maximum-Eigen Value Test) 39
Table 4.4 Coefficient result of Johansen Long Run Co-integrating Technique 41
Table 4.5 Regression of the Vector Error Correction Model 43
Table 4.6 Granger causality tests 45
Table 4.7 Variance decomposition 46



LIST OF FIGURES

Figures 1.1 World proved oil reserves by geographic region in 2011 3
Figures 1.2 Global oil Demand 1995 to 2011 5
Figures 1.3 Crude oil prices since 1861 to 2011 6
Figures 1.4 GDP and Population 7
Figures 1.5 Oil reserves of top ASIA PACIFIC countries 8
Figures 3.1 Conceptual framework of the study 23
Figures 4.1 Data trend and their difference 37


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