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研究生:楊邵帆
研究生(外文):Yang, Shao Fan
論文名稱:論阿拉伯之春期間內戰是否發生:以阿爾及利亞和利比亞為例
論文名稱(外文):Whether Civil War Happened During the Arab Spring: Exemplified by Algeria and Libya
指導教授:劉長政
指導教授(外文):Liu, Chang Cheng
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:外交研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:國際事務學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:124
中文關鍵詞:內戰阿拉伯之春和平持續期半民主阿爾及利亞利比亞
外文關鍵詞:civil warArab Springpeace durationanocracyAlgeriaLibya
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本文主要關注:何種原因造成2011年阿拉伯之春期間的內戰發生與否。在評估由Boix、Collier和Hoeffler,以及Fearon和Laitin所提出的內戰理論後,我發現單獨適用Collier和Hoeffler即可有效又簡約地解釋阿拉伯之春期間的情況。此外,我認為「和平持續期」(peace duration)和「半民主」(anocracy)可能是內戰的必要條件。為了進一步確認理論的解釋力,我將焦點轉移至探索造成理論預測例外(如阿爾及利亞和利比亞)的原因。最後,我提出對理論發展和政策的一些建議。
The main concern of this study lies in what is the cause behind whether civil war broke out during the Arab Spring (2011). By evaluating civil war theories by Boix, Collier and Hoeffler, and Fearon and Laitin, I find that applying the theory by Collier and Hoeffler alone can effectively and parsimoniously explains the situation during the Arab Spring. In addition, I identify two variables: “peace duration” and “anocracy”, which might be the necessary conditions behind the civil wars during the Arab Spring. To further assure the explanatory power of theories, I switch the focus to explore the reasons why there are exceptions, such as Algeria and Libya, out of the theoretical prediction. Finally, I present some recommendations for theoretical development and policy.
Acknowledgements iv
Abbreviations vi
Abstracts viii
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Research Goals 1
1.2. Literature Review 3
1.2.1. Arab Spring in General 3
1.2.2. Situation in Different Country before or During the Arab Spring 7
1.2.3. Theories for the Onset of Civil War 19
1.3. Research Design 23
1.3.1. Research Questions 23
1.3.2. Research Methods 24
1.3.3. Research Limitations 25
1.3.4. Research Frameworks 26
2. The Existed Potential Causal Factors behind the Onset of Civil War 27
2.1. Unit of Analysis 27
2.2. Dependent Variable 27
2.3. Independent Variable 28
2.3.1. Motivation for Rebelling 29
2.3.2. Opportunity for Rebelling 32
3. Can Theory Explain the Cases? 39
3.1. Whether Civil War Occurred? 39
3.2. Potential Causes Behind Civil War 42
3.3. Modification for Interpretation 49
3.4. How Cases Performed? 51
3.4.1. How to Apply Theories? 51
3.4.2. Which Independent Variables Might be Necessary? 54
3.5. Normal Cases 56
3.5.1. Iraq as a Case 57
3.5.2. Yemen as a Case 59
3.6. Brief Summary 62
4. Focusing on Two Deviate Cases: Algeria and Libya 63
4.1. “Peace Duration” Hypothesis 63
4.2. “Anocracy” Hypothesis 64
4.2.1. Praetorian Polity as Theoretical Basis 65
4.2.2. The Price for Using Polity Score 67
4.2.3. Impacts from Cleansing Contaminated Components 69
4.2.4. Bring Theoretical Complexity Back 70
4.3. Algeria as a Case 72
4.3.1. Civil War Experience and Bouteflika’s Reconciliatory Policy 72
4.3.2. Civil-Military Division in Algeria 74
4.3.3. Old Hatred Out of Focus and Internal Division within Opposition 83
4.4. Libya as a Case 85
4.4.1. Old Scores Against Gaddafi Regime 85
4.4.2. “Jamahiriya” in Libya 87
4.4.3. Old Hatred as a Trigger and the Cooperation between Dissents 96
4.5. Brief Summary 99
5. Conclusion 100
Appendix I. Research Frameworks 101
Appendix II. Potential Causal Factors in Theories 102
Appendix III. Explanatory Performance by the Three Theories 103
Appendix IV. Explanatory Performance by F-L and Boix 105
Appendix V. Explanatory Performance by C-H and Boix 106
Appendix VI. Explanatory Performance by F-L and C-H 107
Appendix VII. Explanatory Performance by F-L 108
Appendix VIII. Explanatory Performance by Boix 109
Appendix IX. Explanatory Performance by C-H 110
Appendix X. Frequency of Indexes Appearing in Civil War 111
Appendix XI. Specificity of Indexes to Civil War 112
Appendix XII. Polity Score or X-POLITY Captures Praetorian Polity 113
References 114

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