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研究生:柯鳳茹
研究生(外文):Ke, Feng Ru
論文名稱:影響得標價格、估價金額及標售底價間差異之因素探討-以台北市辦公室標售為例
論文名稱(外文):A Study on the Factors Affecting Differences Between Auction Price, Appraised Value, and Reserve Price-on the Evidence of Business Buildings Auction in Taipei City
指導教授:林左裕林左裕引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lin, Tso Yu Calvin
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:地政學系碩士在職專班
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:公共行政學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:80
中文關鍵詞:辦公室拍賣不動產估價認知差異
外文關鍵詞:officesauctionreal estate appraisalcognitive differences
相關次數:
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由於2004至2013年在不動產多頭走勢及賣方市場背景下,商用不動產採用拍賣方式銷售,得標價格屢創新高,使商用不動產採用拍賣銷售交易比例逐漸提高,然而得標者為何願以高於標售底價甚多的價格競標?以及,投標者多為專業法人機構,依法需委託不動產估價師估價,競標時估價金額與得標價格卻不一致,為何如此?而賣方訂定的標售底價,是委託不動產估價師評估之市場價值,或賣方評估拍賣標的物之市場價值,為何估價金額與標售底價有所差異?由於得標價格公開,常被視為不動產市場前景指標,故了解得標價格、估價金額與標售底價間關係,有其必要性。
因此,本研究以台北市辦公室標售個案為研究對象,以拍賣理論、特徵價格理論為基礎,建構複迴歸分析模型,探討影響得標價格、估價金額及標售底價間差異之因素,以供投標者出價決策、賣方訂定底價與不動產估價師估價時之參酌。本研究實證結果顯示,得標價格、估價金額皆高於標售底價,但得標價格不一定高於估價金額。投標者、賣方、不動產估價師對價格認知存有差異,賣方、投標者及不動產估價師會依據其所蒐集的資訊、個人的知識與專業、自身經驗法則及決策參考因素,對價格形成因素存有不同詮釋。此外,不動產估價師僅是協助投標者評估可獲利的合理價格,但無法保證其獲利,致投標者認知之投資價值與不動產估價追求的真實價值相異。
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法、範圍與限制 5
第三節 研究架構與流程 7
第二章 相關理論及文獻回顧 9
第一節 拍賣理論 9
第二節 特徵價格理論 17
第三章 研究設計 25
第一節 實地訪談 25
第二節 資料及變數說明 28
第三節 模型建構 42
第四章 實證結果與分析 47
第一節 影響得標價格與標售底價差異之因素 47
第二節 影響得標價格與估價金額差異之因素 52
第三節 影響估價金額與標售底價差異之因素 59
第五章 結論與建議 63
第一節 結論 63
第二節 建議 69
第三節 後續建議 72
參考文獻 73
附錄一 訪談名單、訪談內容及結果 79
一、中文文獻
方劭元、梁仁旭、陳奉瑤,2013,「銷售模式對商用不動產價格之影響-以台北市辦公室為例」,『土地經濟年刊』,24:97-116。
林左裕,2012,『不動產投資管理』,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。
林英彥,2006,『不動產估價』,十一版,台北:文笙書局股份有限公司。
邱信智,2009,「不動產估價師與買賣雙方對住宅價格影響因素認知差異分析」,國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。
邱皓政,2011,『量化研究與統計分析』,台北:五南圖書出版社股份有限公司。
洪得洋、林祖嘉,1999,「台北市捷運系統與道路寬度對房屋價格影響之研究」。頁43-66,收錄於『中華民國住宅學會第八屆論文集』,台灣:中華民國住宅學會。
張嘉宇,2008,「台北市辦公大樓租金影響因素分析-以物業管理觀點為出發」,政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
曾翊瑋、黃名義、張金鶚,2010,「租戶結構對辦公大樓與空置率之影響」,『都市與計畫』,37(4):481-500。
黃名義、張金鶚,1999,「台北市辦公室租金水準之研究」。頁77-93,收錄於『中華民國住宅學會年會論文集』,台灣: 中華民國住宅學會。
黃名義、張金鶚,2005,「台北市都會區大型企業辦公室區位變遷之研究」,『管理評論』,24(4):83-102。
蔡芬蓮,1997,「法拍屋價格影響因素之研究-以台北市為例」,政治大學地政學系碩士論文。


二、外文文獻
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Amidu, A. R., Aluko, B. T. and Oyedele, J. B., 2008, “Price formation in residential property market: evidence from FGLP auction in Nigeria”, Property Management, 26(4): 228-240.
Bello, M. O. and Bello, V. A., 2007, “The Influence of Consumers Behavior on the Variables Determining Residential Property Values in Lagos, Nigeria”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 4(10): 774-778.
Cannaday, R. E. and Sunerman, M. A., 1986, “Estimation of Depreciation for Single-Family Appraisals”,Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 14(2):255-273.
Capen, E. C., Clapp, R. V. and Campbell, W. M., 1971, “Competitive bidding in high risk situations”, Journal of Petroleum Technology, 23:641–53.
Colwell, P. F., Munneke, H. J. and Trefzger, J.W., 1998, “Chicago’s office market: Price indices, location and time”, Real Estate Economics, 26(1):83-106.
Daly, J., Gronow, S., Jenkins, D., and Plimmer, F., 2003, “Consumer behavior in the valuation of residential property: A comparative study in the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia”, Property Management, 21(5):295-314.
Dotzour, M. G., Moorhead, E.and Winkler, D.T., 1998, “The Impact of Auctions on Residential Sales Prices in New Zealand”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 16(1):57-71.
Downs, D. H. and Slade, B. A., 1999, “Characteristics of a Full-Disclosure, Transaction-Based Index of Commercial Real Estate”, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 5(1):95-104.
Eklof, M. and Lunander, A., 2003, “Open outcry auctions with secret reserve prices: an empirical application to executive auctions of tenant owner's apartments in Sweden”, Journal of Econometrics, 114(2):243–260.
Feldman, R. A. and Mehra, R., 1993, “Auctions Theory and Applications”, IMF Staff Papers, 40(3):485-511.
Frew, J. and Jud, D. G., 1998, “The Vacancy Rate and Rent Levels in the Commercial Office Market”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 3(1):1-8.
Frino, A., Lepone, A., Mollica, V. and Vassallo, A., 2010,”The Impact of Auctions on Residential Sale Prices: Australian Evidence”, Australian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 4(3):3-22.
Gat, D., 1998, “Urban Focal Points and Design Quality Influence Rents: The Case of the Tel Aviv Office Market”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 16(2):229-247.
Giliberto, S. M. and Varaiya, N. P., 1989, “The Winner’s Curse and Bidder Competition in Acquisitions: Evidence from Failed Bank Auctions”, The Journal of Finance, 44(1):59-75.
Glascock, J. L., Jahanian, S. and Sirmas, C. F., 1990, “An Analysis of Office Market Rents: Some Empirical Evidence”, Real Estate Economics, 18(1):105-119.
Hekman, J. S., 1985, “Rental Price Adjustment and Investment in Office Market”, AREUEA Journal, 13(1):32-47.
Kagel, J. H., Levin, D., Battalio, R. C. and Meyer, D. J., 1989, “First-price Common Value Auctions: Bidder Behavior and the ‘Winner’s Course “, Economic Inquiry, 27(2):241-258.
Klemperer, P., 2004, Auctions: Theory and Practice, USA: Princeton University Press.
Krishna. V., 2002, Auction Theory, USA: Elsevier Science.
Lancaster, K. J., 1966, “A New Approach to Consumer Theory”, The Journal of Political Economy, 74(2):132-157.
McAfee, R. P. and McMillan, J., 1987, “Auctions and Bidding”, Journal of Economic Literature, 25(2):699-738.
Milgrom, P. R., 1979,” A Convergence Theorem for Competitive Bidding with Differential Information”, Econometrica, 47(3):679- 688.
Milgrom, P.R. and Weber, R.J., 1982, “A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding”, Econometrica, 50(5):1089-1122.
Nappi-Choulet, I., Maleyre, I. and Maury, T. P., 2007, “A Hedonic Model of Office Prices in Paris and Its Immediate Suburbs”, Journal of Property Research, 24(3):241-263.
Ong, S. E., Lusht, K., Mak, C. Y., 2005, “Factors influencing Auction Outcomes: Bidder Turnout, Auction Houses and Market Conditions”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 27(2):177-191.
Ong, S.E., 2006, “Price Discovery in Real Estate Auctions: The Story of Unsuccessful Attempts”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 28(1):39–59.
Quan, D. C., 1994,”Real Estate Auction: A Survey of Theory and Practice”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 9(1):23-49.
Rosen S., 1974, “Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition”, The Journal of Political Economy, 82(1):34-55.
Stevenson, S. and Young, J., 2004, “Valuation accuracy: A comparison of residential guide prices and auction results”, Property Management, 22(1):45-54.
Stevenson, S., Young, J., and Gurdgiev, C., 2010, “A Comparison of the Appraisal Process for Auction and Private Treaty Residential Sales”, Journal of Housing Economics,19(2):145-154.
Thiel, S. E., 1988, “Some Evidence on the Winner’s Curse”,The American Economic Review, 78(5):884-895.
Tse, M. K. S., Pretorius, F. I. H. and Chau, K. W., 2011, “Market sentiments, winner's curse and bidding outcome in land auctions”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 42(3):247-274.
Tu, Y., Yu,S.M. and Sun,H., 2004, “Transaction-Based Office Price Indexes: A Spatiotemporal Modeling Approach”, Real Estate Economics, 32(2):297-328.
Vickrey, W., 1961, “Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders”, Journal of Finance, 16(1):8-37.
Warehrer, K., Harstad, R. M. and Rothkopf, M. H., 1998, “Auction form preferences of risk-averse bid takers”, The RAND Journal of Economics, 29(1):179-192.
Wheaton, W. C. and Torto, R.G., 1988, “Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents”, Real Estate Economics, 16(4):430-436.
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Yiu, C. Y., Tang, B.S.,Chiang, Y. H. and Choy, L. H. T., 2006, “Alternative Theories of Appraisal Bias”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 14(3):321-344.

三、網頁資料
高力國際物業,2011Q4,TAIPEI REAL ESTATE MARKET,http://www.colliers.com/-/media/Files/MarketResearch/APAC/Taiwan/Research-Reports/TP-2011Q4,取用日期:2013年11月15日。
聯合報,2011.05.25,奢侈稅陰影淡商辦拍賣又發燒,http://money.udn.com/house/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=237578#ixzz31SuWSwMd,取用日期:2013年11月15日。
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