臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

了解外來種對棲地的偏好和未來的擴散情形，是進行外來種擴散監控和防治的重要資訊，本研究中我以邏輯回歸模型進行沙氏變色蜥擴張和環境、空間因素的相關性分析。沙氏變色蜥原產於中美洲島嶼，是近年來入侵台灣的外來種，2000年Gerrut Norval於嘉義縣水上鄉三界埔首次發現了入侵台灣的沙氏變色蜥，該族群在接下來數年內快速擴張。2006年由杜銘章於三界埔進行過一次沙氏變色蜥的分布調查，我們在2012年根據同樣的網格系統再次調查沙氏變色蜥的分布，但擴大調查範圍到5.5∗6公里。比對兩次調查結果，我得到六年間沙氏變色蜥入侵的範圍，共有28個樣方新發現蜥蜴。我以樣方為單位，分析過去六年間各樣方被入侵與否和環境因素與空間因素的關係，以建立一個可以描述沙氏變色蜥擴散速度的邏輯回歸模型。環境因素為14種棲地類型面積，空間因素為樣方與各擴散源的距離，擴散源為2006年有發現沙氏變色蜥的樣方，不同類型棲地的單位面積和距離擴散源的遠近均會貢獻不等的沙氏變色蜥入侵機率。我也將2012年的沙氏變色蜥分布調查結果代入回歸模型以預估2018年的分布機率。模型顯示城鎮等人為干擾頻繁的環境會促進沙氏變色蜥的擴張，預估結果也顯示沙氏變色蜥並不會在充滿果園和森林的山區快速擴散，但會快速地朝嘉義市蔓延。此結果可能因為(1)沙氏變色蜥喜好開闊的人為干擾環境、(2)人類活動常會無意間夾帶沙氏變色蜥在城鎮間移動。根據擴散趨勢，若想減緩或阻止擴散，西北方的嘉義市和周邊衛星城鎮將是未來的防治重點。

In this research, I used logistic regression to analyze habitats preference of brown anole (Anolis sagrei) population in Samtzepu, an invasive species in Taiwan, and to construct a model to forecast future spread. Regression model revealed that brown anole prefer built environments. This result suggests either human activities promote brown anole’s invasion, or brown anole have more fitness in the built environment. Forecasting based on regression model indicated that brown anole will spread toward northwest, closer to Chiayi city. According to this result, Chiayi city and surrounding towns are primary checkpoint to control the spreading of brown anoles.

目錄
中文摘要 I
致謝 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VI
一、前言 1
1.1 沙氏變色蜥簡介 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 2
二、 實驗材料與方法 5
2.1 實驗樣區 5
2.2 調查方式 5
2.3 分析方式 5
2.4 棲地類型組成和空間因素 6
2.5 資料分析和模式預估 6
三、實驗結果 13
3.1 沙氏變色蜥在嘉義縣三界埔的最新分布 13
3.2 以環境和空間距離因子建立邏輯回歸模型 13
3.4 以模型預測沙氏變色蜥的未來分布 16
四、討論 20
參考文獻 22

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