臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台灣地區因降雨在時間與空間上分佈不均勻，穩定的供水極需仰賴水庫來調節河川豐枯不均的流量，但在嚴重的乾旱時期，水庫供水無法滿足既定用水需求的機率將會大幅增加，容易造成缺水情況發生。台灣地區多數水庫均以規線評估各時期水庫蓄水狀態以決定供水量，在水庫蓄水量低於規線下限時代表水庫供水能力不足以供應未來的供水需求，通常會以折扣供水的方式來減輕未來供水的壓力。在乾旱發生之前水庫蓄水量低於下限時，先以小比例限水來避免未來嚴重乾旱時期可能發生的嚴重缺水，是水庫管理單位經常採用的乾旱管理措施之一。但限水的時機與限水比例是水庫營運決策問題，而水庫下限的形狀會影響此二因子，因此本文建立優選模式以尋求水庫之最佳營運策略，所考慮的兩種模式包括模式一僅考慮供水係數的變動，模式二則考慮供水係數與規線的變動，並以多準則決策的方式將7種缺水指標(缺水事件最長延時、缺水事件最大缺水量、缺水事件平均缺水延時及缺水量、風險度、總缺水率、缺水事件頻率)整合成單一缺水目標函數，以遺傳演算法尋求最佳營運策略。經本文應用於位在台灣南部區域之南化水庫，顯示兩種優選模式結果皆優於現況，其中又以模式二之最佳下限與供水係數對改善缺水最有幫助，在7個缺水指標中有6項優於現況，有5項缺水指標優於模式一，僅缺水事件平均連續缺水量由現況之5.836 MCM略增至模式一8.024 MCM及模式二7.151 MCM。

Uneven spatial and temporal rainfall distribution in Taiwan induces that stable water-supply heavily depends on regulation of fluctuating streamflow by reservoirs. In Taiwan, rule curves are used in reservoir operation to determine water releases. Water storage below lower rule curve denotes the low water availability condition. A common measure adopted to mitigate such water deficits is water rationing, which reduces water supplies in advance and conserves more water for future use. Therefore, this study aims to construct optimal reservoir operation rules during drought period. Two types of optimization models are considered in the study. Mode I considers only the water-release coefficient as the decision variable, which the Model II considers the water-release coefficients associated with the lower rule curve as the decision variables. A multiple criteria decision making based approach integrates 7 water shortage indexes (maximum shortage event duration, maximum shortage event deficit, average shortage event duration, average shortage event deficit, risk, total shortage ratio, shortage event frequency)into a single objective to search the optimal solution using genetic algorithm. The proposed approach is applied to the Nanhua Reservoir located in southern Taiwan. The results show that both two optimization models are better than current operation, which model II outperforms model I.

摘要 I
Extended Abstract II
致謝 VIII
目錄 IX
表目錄 XI
圖目錄 XII
符號表 XIV
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機 1
1-2 研究目的 2
1-3 文獻回顧 3
1-4 論文架構 10
第二章 研究區域與資料 11
2-1南化水庫及甲仙攔河堰系統概述 11
2-1-1南化水庫 11
2-1-2甲仙攔河堰 13
2-2 南化水庫營運方式 14
2-3 南化水庫與甲仙攔河堰入流量資料 18
第三章 研究方法 25
3-1 南化水庫營運系統 25
3-2水庫營運優選模式 28
3-2-1 優選模式一 28
3-2-2優選模式二 29
3-2-3已知參數與決策變數 30
3-3缺水指標 32
3-4多準則決策 34
第四章 結果與討論 37
4-1 現況營運 37
4-2優選模式一 43
4-3優選模式二 49
第五章 結論與建議 59
5-1 結論 59
5-2 建議 60
參考文獻 61

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