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研究生:蕭凱心
研究生(外文):Kai-Xin HSIAO
論文名稱:供應鏈廠商自結盈餘宣告對分析師預測的影響—兼論半導體產業
指導教授:曹壽民曹壽民引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tsao, Shou-min
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:40
中文關鍵詞:自結盈餘分析師預測資訊外部性
外文關鍵詞:unaudited earningsanalyst forecastinformation externality
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:87
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:1
本研究以財務分析師進行盈餘預測之角度,探討2006年自2012年在現行
「自結損益制度」下,我國上市櫃半導體產業廠商自結盈餘資訊宣告對分析師預測與外部資訊使用者之影響效果。實證結果顯示,自結盈餘宣告與否對於降低分析師預測誤差與離散程度皆具有顯著效果;而較頻繁的自結盈餘揭露次數同樣能顯著降低分析師預測誤差;然而對於降低預測離散程度上並不顯著。此外,本研究更進一步依據資訊垂直移轉理論建立敏感性測試,結果再次支持研究穩健度,並發現自結盈餘資訊在供應鏈傳遞的距離越長,越加減弱其移轉效果。結論台灣半導體業上市上櫃公司所發布的自結盈餘預測資訊具實質資訊內涵,能有效降低資訊不對稱現象,足供分析師進行財務預測時參考。

The study based on the perspective of analyst’s earnings forecast by examining the effects of unaudited earnings announcements of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry samples under current regulation. The result shows that voluntary unaudited earnings’ disclosure can efficiently lower analyst forecast error and dispersion degree; meanwhile, a higher voluntary disclosure frequency can as well reduce analyst forecast error but it’s not manifest on dispersion degree. Furthermore, our sensitivity test stands on the theory of vertical information transfers again supports the robustness of the study, and discovers the fact that the influence of unaudited earnings announcement will be reduced as the distance of the supply chain extends. In brief, the study reassured the informativeness of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry’s unaudited earnings announcements which can lower the degree on the impact of information asymmetry, and it’s also a valuable source to analysts.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
圖目錄 iv
表目錄 v
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻探討與假說發展 5
第一節 自願性揭露相關文獻 5
第二節 分析師預測相關文獻 7
第三節 台灣半導體產業簡介與產業鏈內資訊移轉文獻 9
第三章 研究方法 12
第一節 樣本選取與資料來源 12
第二節 變數衡量與檢測假說之迴歸模型 13
第四章 實證結果與分析 17
第一節 樣本敘述統計 17
第二節 迴歸模型之結果 22
第三節 敏感性測試 25
第五章 結論與建議 28
第一節 研究結論 28
第二節 研究限制 28
參考文獻 29
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