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研究生(外文):Shu-Fen Lee
論文名稱(外文):Exchange Rate Misalignment, Export and Economic Growth--Nonlinear Threshold Model Analysis
指導教授(外文):Cheng-Lang Yung
口試委員(外文):Bao-Yuan ZhenHong-Bin Lin
外文關鍵詞:Exchange Rate Misalignment.Economic GrowthThreshold ModelExportGross Domestic Product
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  Devaluation can help saving the economy of country has been a unanimous slogan in recent years. Empirical research indicates that currency devaluation can increase a country's external competitiveness, especially in export-oriented places; however, it will also bring a lot of consequences if a government keeps the exchange rates too low. For example, it may lead to trade retaliation and excessive exchange rate fluctuations. The structure of the world economy changes gradually, thus slowing the demand in Europe and the States. Besides, due to protectionism, it becomes more and more difficult for emerging markets to boost export growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate whether devaluation helps economic growth and further to discuss the value of exports under different systems. If devaluation doesn't work well, the government should shift its original plan and think of other useful policies. In this study, we use non-linear error correction model for empirical research based on exchange rates and some information of Thailand from 1993 to 2013. The empirical results show that when the export value exceeds a certain threshold, the devaluation policy will help the economy growth. As a result, the government should adopt other policies so that it can effectively accomplish the purpose of enhancing economic growth.
1 緒論 1
2 參考文獻 4
3 研究方法 10
3.1 單根檢定 10
3.2 共整合檢定 12
3.3 行為均衡匯率理論 14
3.4 成長模型分析 16
4 實證結果 18
4.1 資料說明 18
4.1.1 實質匯率、淨國外資產、生產力差之敘述統計量 19
4.2 實證結果分析 20
4.2.1 實質匯率、淨國外資產、生產力差之單根檢定結果 20
4.2.2 共整合結果 20
4.3 匯率失衡與經濟成長 22
4.3.1 成長相關變數敘述統計量 22
4.3.2 國內生產毛額、匯率失衡、投資、出口之單根檢定結果 24
4.3.3 門檻模型結果 25
5 結論 28
參考文獻 29
(A) 中文參考文獻
陳旭昇、吳聰敏 (2008),台灣匯率制度初探, 經濟論文叢刊, 36: 2, 147-182。
黃台心 (2002),出口與經濟成長的因果關係:台灣的實證研究, 經濟論文叢刊, 30, 465-490。

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