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研究生:阮伯黃
研究生(外文):Hoang, Nguyen Ba
論文名稱:營建成本指數及建築成本在台灣與越南間的比較
論文名稱(外文):Comparisons of Construction Cost Index and Building Cost in Taiwan and Vietnam
指導教授:郭斯傑郭斯傑引用關係
指導教授(外文):Guo, Sy-Jye
口試委員:曾惠斌陳柏翰
口試委員(外文):Tserng, Hui-PingChen, Po-Han
口試日期:2014-06-16
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:土木工程學研究所
學門:工程學門
學類:土木工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:45
中文關鍵詞:比較營建成本指數建築成本銀行利率材料成本指數勞動成本指數台灣與越南
外文關鍵詞:ComparisonsConstruction Cost IndexInterest RateMaterials Cost IndexLabor Cost IndexBuilding CostsVietnam and Taiwan.
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This study establishes a comparison approach for indexes between Vietnam and Taiwan, in order to determine the differences and similarities between indexes inside one country and with another. The study’s database consists of Vietnam and Taiwan’s statistical data of 8 years from 2006 to 2013. Base on the study’s method, it is expected to predict the trend with a higher than 80% correlation between indexes. Therefore, the proposed method can be a promising tool to assist decision makers in construction management.
The empirical results of this study illustrate the relationships between construction and economic indicators between Vietnam and Taiwan. Base on the data collected it is possible to draw a short-term prediction of the Construction Cost Index and other indicators, which serves as a decent tool in public building cost estimations in Vietnam. Absolute number is not possible, however, for such a frequently high fluctuated but not yet technology familiar construction industry like Vietnam’s, this simple method is a decent approach to the Construction Cost Index forecasting study, which is still new in Vietnam.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
ABSTRACT iii
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF TABLES viii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Problem Statements 3
1.3 Research Objectives 5
1.4 Research Scope and Limitations 6
1.5 Procedure of the Research 8
1.6 Structure of the Research 8
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 10
2.1 Neural Network Models 10
2.2 The Russell – NCREIF Property Index 11
2.3 Time Series Analysis of Construction Cost Index 12
2.4 Hybrid Intelligence Approach 16
CHAPTER 3: DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY 19
3.1 Source and validity of data 19
3.2 Principles of collecting data 20
3.3 Research Methodology 21
3.3.1 Statistical comparisons: 21
3.3.2 Comparisons’ criteria: 22
CHAPTER 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 25
4.1 Data analysis 25
4.2 Analysis results 27
4.2.1 Comparisons among variables in Vietnam: 28
4.2.2 Comparisons among variables in Taiwan: 32
4.2.3 Comparisons of variables between Vietnam and Taiwan: 38
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 43
REFERENCES 44


REFERENCES
1.Ashuri B., Lu J. (2010). “Time series analysis of ENR construction cost index”, ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 136 (11), 1227–1237.
2.Ashuri B., Shahandashti S.M., Lu J. (2012). “Is the information available from historical time series data on economic, energy, and construction market variables useful to explain variations in ENR construction cost index?” Construction Research Congress 2012, American Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, pp. 457–464.
3.Capano C., Karshenas S. (2003). “Applying accepted economic indicators to predict cost escalation for construction” Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference, Clemson University - Clemson, South Carolina, pp. 277-288.
4.Cheng M. Y., Hoang N. D., Wu Y. W (2013). “Hybrid intelligence approach based on LS-SVM and Differential Evolution for construction cost index estimation: A Taiwan case study”. Automation in Construction 35, pp. 306-313.
5.Guerun R. Jonsdottir (2008). “House Price Indexes, Approaches and Methods”
6.Nam. H., Han S.H., Kim H. (2007). “Time series analysis of construction cost index using wavelet transformation and a neural network”, Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Automation &; Robotics in Construction (ISARC 2007), Construction Automation Group, I.I.T. Madras.
7.Jeffrey D., David M., Webb B. (1994) “Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 9: 137-164
8.Zhang Y. Y., “Forecasting the trend of construction cost indices for Taiwan employing support vector machine”, Chao Yang University of Technology, Taiwan, 2007
9.Associated Schools of Construction (2013). “Forecasting Construction Cost Index using Energy Price as an Explanatory Variable”. 49th ASC Annual International Conference Proceedings.
10.European Commission. “Understanding and Monitoring the Cost-Determining Factors of Infrastructure Projects”
11.R.F. Fellows (1991). “Escalation management: Forecasting the effects of inflation on building projects”, Construction Management and Economics 9 187-204
12.Statistics Directorate. “Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris; Statistical Office of the European Community”, Luxembourg. Sources And Methods Construction Price Indices


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