本研究蒐集大屯火山群 40 餘年來的地熱探勘資料，包含電阻探勘、磁力探勘、重力資料、地化資料及鑽井等，作為評估地熱發電潛能的基礎。首先利用鑽井建構出新北投至金山沖積平原一帶之地下地質和溫度3D模型，觀察136 ℃ 等溫面顯示熱液以七星山–大油坑間為中心呈雙峰型態，推測該位置為熱源所在，其與高磁基盤、大地電磁等地球物理研究結果一致。地下溫度的分布除受熱源位置影響外，亦與本區儲集層–五指山層的基盤深度、局部裂隙發育密切相關。根據所建構地下地質3D模型中可以發現熱源中心的基盤下陷過深，且上覆安山岩層裂隙發育不發達，使得熱液傾向於往東西兩側傳輸，與地球化學分析研究指出大油坑有較高氦同位素值相符。等溫面在四磺坪東側一帶遽降，根據地電阻與空中磁測結果，研判該處存在一低滲透性的障蔽，後續鑽探應避開此障蔽所在處。
單井情境分析選擇靠近熱源所在的E208號井及遠離熱源的E103號井，前者適用閃發式機組、後者適用閃發式或雙循環式機組。結果顯示E208號井利用單閃發式、雙閃發式發電容量可高達1,200 kW、1,400 kW；E103號井因熱液溫度較低，僅為270 kW、440 kW。不過運用雙循環式機組不僅效率更佳，配合井下幫浦亦能大幅提升流量，使得發電容量可大幅提升至3,400 kW。由於E103所在位置儲集層深度甚淺即可鑽達，未來開發應審慎考慮硫磺谷、金山沖積平原等類似地點。
整體區域潛能評估分為傳統熱液型發電、加強型地熱系統兩個類別。前者定義為利用3 km深以內的高滲透性、具足夠流體的岩層發電，利用美國地質調查所及GeothermEX Inc.等地熱公司採用的體積法做估計，並配合蒙地卡羅模擬去計算發電潛能的機率分布。如以30年為營運期，結果顯示大屯火山群之平均發電潛能為425 MW；而應用地表熱散失值與發電潛能的對比關係計算保守下限則為329 MW。最後EGS(加強型地熱系統)的部分，開採深度限制為6 km，利用麻省理工學院的建議參數值及溫度推算模型，並考量EGS技術仍在發展階段，熱攫取比例設5%，則可再額外提供1.2 GW的裝置容量。

誌謝 i
摘要 ii
ABSTRACT iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 動機與目的 1
第二節 前人相關研究 1
1.2.1 地下地質與構造模式 1
1.2.2 地熱潛能 2
第三節 內容簡介 4
第二章 區域概況 5
第一節 大地構造及地質概況 5
2.1.1 台灣北部構造框架 5
2.1.2 台灣北部區域地質 6
第二節 大屯火山群的演變 12
2.2.1 噴發歷史與機制 12
2.2.2 火山地質 13
第三節 其他相關文獻 17
2.3.1 地球物理探勘 17
2.3.2 地球化學探勘 18
第三章 研究原理與方法 23
第一節 體積法 23
3.1.1 孔隙率與體積比熱 24
3.1.2 儲集層面積與厚度 25
3.1.3 平均溫度 26
3.1.4 熱攫取因子(Recovery factor) 27
3.1.5 效率計算與固定參數 31
3.1.6 蒙地卡羅模擬 32
第二節 熱流法 36
第三節 深層地熱系統 39
第四節 閃發式系統 43
第五節 雙循環系統 49
3.5.1 機組設定與熱力學分析 49
3.5.2 井下幫浦及儲集層模擬 51
第四章 資料來源及處理 58
第一節 鑽井資料 58
4.1.1 岩性與溫度 58
4.1.2 溫泉分布與水化學 60
第二節 其他資料 61
第三節 流體熱力學特性 63
第五章 結果分析與討論 65
第一節 地下三維模型 65
第二節 單井情境分析 75
第三節 區域潛能評估 87
5.3.1 體積法 87
5.3.2 熱流法 88
5.3.3 深層地熱 88
第六章 結論 94
附錄一 最大可用能推導 95
附錄二 其餘等溫面形貌 96
REFERENCE 98

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