氣候為影響戶外休憩活動的重要因子之一，氣候的舒適與否亦可能對於遊客量造成影響，本研究係以溪頭自然教育園區為例，藉由Mieczkowski（1985）所提出結合7種主要氣候因子的「旅遊氣候指數（TCI）」，於研究中嘗試將TCI進行2項微調，首先，為避免過愈高估濕度對於熱舒適度所造成的影響，利用「生理平衡溫度」取代「有效溫度」進行計算，其次則是以逐日資料計算溪頭地區於1990~2012年間的舒適度指數，並經比較以逐日資料計算可獲得更準確的TCI。
於1990~2012年間，平均TCI最高之月份為10月，最低則為1月，氣溫及雨量為主要影響溪頭地區TCI之氣候因子，於年與年間的比較可發現，冬季受熱舒適度影響較大，春季及夏季則受降雨指標的影響，秋季則受熱舒適度及降雨指標的影響。溪頭地區各季的TCI平均皆在50以上為可接受等級，顯示一年四季皆相當適合從事旅遊活動。秋季為一年中TCI最高的季節，顯著高於夏季、春季及冬季，於TCI的季節分布分類上屬於秋季舒適型。此外，於研究中對於氣候變化進行初步模擬，結果顯示，將均溫分別調升0.5℃、1℃、2℃後，各季之TCI值皆呈現上升的趨勢，於TCI的季節分布上皆屬於秋季舒適型。

Climate is one of the important factors influencing outdoor recreation activities. Climate comfort can also affect the amount of tourists. In this research, two adjustment were made to Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climate Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. First, to prevent overestimate the effect of humidity, the thermal comfort is not measured by the “effective temperature,” but instead by the “Physiologically Equivalent Temperature” (PET). Second, daily data is used to evaluate the climate comfort of Xitou Nature education area from 1990-2012. The results show that calculating by daily data is more appropriate.
From 1990 to 2012, the highest TCI’s monthly average is in October and the lowest is in January. The main climate variables affect the TCI value in Xitou are temperature and precipitation. In the comparison between years, winter has greater impact by thermal comfort index, spring and summer are influenced by precipitation index, and autumn is affected by both thermal comfort and precipitation index. In conclusion, the TCI average of each season are above 50（means Acceptable）show that Xitou is quite suitable for tourism activities all year around. TCI values in autumn are significantly higher than in summer, spring and winter. The comfort type of seasonal distribute of Xitou is “autumn peak.” In addition, a preliminary simulation of climate change were made in this study, the average temperature were escalated 0.5℃, 1℃ and 2℃. The results show that in each season, TCI values are on an upward trend, and the comfort type of seasonal distribute are “autumn peak.”

摘要 i
Abstract ii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
壹、前言 1
一、研究動機 1
二、研究目的 3
三、研究流程 4
貳、文獻回顧 5
一、旅遊與氣候 5
二、旅遊氣候指數簡介 7
三、TCI的應用：氣候變遷對於旅遊業的影響 9
參、研究方法 10
一、研究地點與材料 10
（一）研究地點 10
（二）研究材料 11
二、TCI值計算 11
（一）各項次指標內容與評價方法 12
（二）旅遊氣候指數(TCI)計算與分級 16
（三）TCI值計算方法調整 18
三、統計分析 19
肆、結果與討論 20
一、溪頭自然教育園區氣候情況分析 20
（一）溪頭自然教育園區氣溫之分析 21
（二）溪頭自然教育園區降雨量之分析 24
二、TCI值之敘述統計結果 28
（一）以日資料轉換之TCI值計算結果 28
（二）以月資料轉換之TCI值計算結果 33
三、變異數分析 36
四、氣溫上升對於TCI值計算結果之影響 38
五、綜合討論 40
（一）利用月、日資料轉換TCI值各次指標之比較 40
（二）不同季節影響溪頭自然教育園區之TCI次指標 44
（三）日照指標 47
伍、結論 48
一、溪頭自然教育園區的氣候情況 48
（一）氣溫 48
（二）降雨量 48
二、溪頭自然教育園區的TCI值 49
（一）以日資料轉換之TCI值敘述性統計結果 49
（二）以月資料轉換之TCI值敘述性統計結果 49
（三）以日資料及月資料轉換之TCI值比較 50
（四）氣溫上升對於TCI值計算結果之影響 51
三、不同季節影響溪頭自然教育園區TCI之次指標 52
四、日照指標 52
陸、建議 53
柒、參考文獻 55

交通部中央氣象局（2014）。農業氣象觀測。2014年7月7日取自http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/eservice/docs/overview/observation/metro/agr_metro.htm。
交通部觀光局行政資訊系統(2012)。中華民國101年國人旅遊狀況調查。2014年6月25日，取自http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/statistics/market.aspx?no=133。
邱祈榮、林鴻忠、王筱萱 (2005) 林美石磐步道暑期遊客滿意度之研究。臺灣大學生物資源暨農學院實驗林研究報告 19:281-291。
孫根年、馬麗君 (2007) 西安旅游氣候舒適度與客流量年內變化相關性分析。旅遊學刊 7(22): 34-39。
溪頭自然教育園區(2014)。2014年4月23日取自http://www.exfo.ntu.edu.tw/sitou/cht/
溪頭自然教育園區多媒體導覽系統(2014)。2014年4月23日取自http://www.exfo.ntu.edu.tw/0ceducation/chi-tou/about.html。
Amelung, B., D. Viner (2006) Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climatic Index. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 14:349-366. DOI: 10.2167/jost549.0.
Becken, S., J. Hay (2007) Tourism and climate change – risks and opportunities. Channal View, Clevedon, UK.
Beniston, M. (2003) Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Climate Change 59: 5-31.
Berrittella, M., A. Bigano, R. Rosan, R.S.J. Tol (2006) A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. Tourism management 27:913-924
Bigano, A., D. Maddison, J.M. Hamilton , R.S.J.Tol (2006) The impact of climate on holiday destination choice. Climatic Change 76:389-406.
Bigano, A., J.M. Hamilton, R.S.J. Tol(2005) The impacts of climate on holiday destination choice. Fundazione Eni Enrico Mattei. Working papers 04.05.
Burki, R., H. Elsasser and B. Albegg (2003) Climate change – impacts on the tourism industry in mountain areas. 1st International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, Djerba, Tunisia, 9-11 April.
Butler, R. (2001) Seasonality in tourism: issues and implications. In: Baum T, Lundtorps (eds) Seasonality in tourism in tourism. Advances in tourism research series. Pergamon, New York.
Crowe, R.B. (1976) A Climate Classification of Northwest Territories for Recreation and Tourism. Environment Canada, Toronto.
de Freitas, C.R. (1990) Recreation climate assessment. International Journal of Climatology 10: 89-103.
de Freitas, C.R., D. Scott and G. McBoyle (2008) A second generation climate index for tourism (CIT): specification and verification. International Journal of Biometeorology 52(5): 399-407.
Elsasser, H., R. Burki (2002) Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps. Climate Research 20(3): 253-257.
Endler, C., K. Oehler, Andrea Matzarakis (2010) Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest. International Journal of Biometeorology 54:45-61. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-009-0251-2.
Eugenio-Martin, J.L. and J.A. Campos-Soria (2010) Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand. Tourism Management 31:744-753. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2009.07.015.
Farajzadeh, H., and A. Matzarakis (2009) Quantification of climate for tourism in the northwest of Iran. Meteorological Applications 16:545-555. DOI: 10.1002/met.155.
Gossling, S., P. Peeters, J. Ceron, G. Dubois, T. Patterson and R. Richardson (2005) The eco-efficiency of tourism. Ecological Economics 54:417-434. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.10.006.
Hamilton, J., M. Lau (2005) The role of climate information in tourist destination choice decision making. In: Gossling S, CM Hall(eds) Tourism and global environmental change. Routledge, London, p 229-250.
Hamilton, J.M. (2004) Climate and destinations choice of German tourists. Fundazione Eni Enrico Mattei. Working papers 21.04.
Harlfinger, O., (1991) Holiday biometerorology: a study of Palma de Majorca, Spain. GeoJournal 25:377-381.
Harrison, S.J., S.J. Winterbottom, and R.C. Johnson (2001) Climate Change and changing snowfall Patters in Scotland. Scottish Executive Central Research Unit Report No.14 Edinburgh: The Stationery office.
Kozak, M. (2002) Comparative analysis of tourist motivations by nationality and destinations. Tourism Management 23:221-232. DOI: Pii S0261-5177(01)00090-5.
Lin, T.P. (2009) Thermal perception, adaptation and attendance in a public square in hot and humid regions. Building and Environment 44:2017-2026.
Lin, T.P., R. de Dear, R. L. Hwang (2011) Effect of thermal adaptation on seasonal outdoor thermal comfort. International Journal of Climatology 31:302-312.
Lise, W., R.S.J. Tol (2002) Impacts of cimate on tourist demand. Climate Change 55:429-449
Maddison, D. (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourists. Climatic Change 49:193-208.
Mather, S., D. Viner, G. Todd (2005) Climate and Policy changes: Their implications for international tourism. In C.M. Hall and J. Higham (eds) Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change: International Perspectives (pp 63-85). Clevedon: Channel View Publications.
Matzarakis, A., F. Rutz and H. Mayer (2006) Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments—application of the RayMan model. International Journal of Biometeorology 51:323-334. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-006-0061-8.
Matzarakis, A., F. Rutz, (2005) Application of RayMan for tourism and climate investigations. Annalen der Meteorologie 41(2):631-636.
Matzarakis, A., H. Mayer, M. G. Iziomon (1999) Applications of a universal thermal index: physiological equivalent temperature. International Journal of Biometeorology 43:76-84.
Mieczkowski, Z.,(1985) The tourism climatic index: A method of evaluating world climates for tourism. The Canadian Geographer 29(3): 220-233.
Mintel International Group (1991). Special report -Holidays. Leisure Intelligence, Mintel International Group, London.
Morgan, R., E Gatell, R. Junyent, A. Micallef, E. Ozhan, A. Williams. (2000) An improved user-based beach climate index. Journal of Coastal Conservation 6:41-50.
Perch-Nielsen, S.L., B. Amelung, et al. (2010) Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index. Climatic Change 103(3-4): 363-381.
O. M. o. T. a. Recreation (2002). If the future were now: impacts of aging in the Canadian market on tourism in Ontario. O. M. o. T. a. Recreation. Toronto.
Scott, D., S. Gossling, C. R. de Freitas (2008). "Preferred climates for tourism: case studies from Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. Climate Research 38:61-73.
Scott, D., G. McBoyle and M. Schwartzentruber (2004) Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research 27:105-117.
Zebisch, M., T.Grothmann, D. Schroter, C.Hasse, U. Fritsch, W. Cramer (2005) Climate change in Germany – vulunerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors. Climate Change 10/05 Umweltbundesamt, Dessau.