作為世界人口第一大國，中國正面臨日益嚴峻的人口老化問題。在日益增加的老齡人口中，70%來自於農村，再加上農村缺乏完善的養老保障體系，農村老年人口的養老問題成為一大挑戰。2009年開始在農村地區實施的新型農村社會養老保險（簡稱「新農保」）政策填補了中國大陸農村長久以來養老保障的缺口，然而究竟能否改變老年人「老無所養」的現狀依然有待評估。鑒於此，本研究利用中國健康與養老追蹤調查（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study，簡稱CHARLS）2011全國基線數據從勞動供給角度切入對新農保的政策效果進行評估，探討新農保對農村中老年勞動參與及工作時間之影響效果。
實證結果顯示，新農保對農村中老年人的勞動供給確實產生了排擠效果，有效減少了工作時間，但是並沒有對勞動參與的可能性產生顯著的影響，因此未從根本上改變農村中老年人「不停止勞作」的工作狀態，養老金水平過低以及新農保政策實施時間太短是重要的原因。本研究還發現，新農保對60歲以下中年人和60歲以上老年人的工作時間有著程度不同的影響，由於60歲以上老年人單純受新農保所得效應的負向作用，其減少工作時間的幅度更為明顯。此外，對於男性、健康狀況較差，家庭經濟水平不好，工作類型為自我僱傭的人，新農保對工作時間的排擠效果更為明顯。
依據研究結果，本研究提出了相應的政策建議，包括擴大新農保覆蓋面、提高養老金水平以及保障低收入者的參保能力等。

As the world’s most populous country, China is facing the increasingly serious problem of an aging population. Of the growing aging population, 70% come from rural areas. Due to the lack of a public pension system in the rural areas, the pension issue has become a major challenge for the rural elderly population. The New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSPI) system implemented in 2009 has filled the gap of China’s rural pension system that has been suspended since 1997. However, whether or not it can improve the economic well-beings of rural elders requires further evaluation. In this study, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011 national baseline data was adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of the NRSPI, from the perspective of labor supply.
Empirical findings show that the NRSPI has a “crowding-out effect” on the labor supply of rural elders. The policy significantly reduces the working hours but has an insignificant impact on the probability of participating in the labor force. The “ceaseless toil” working conditions of rural elders in China have not been fundamentally changed, mainly due to the excessively low pension standard and the short implementation time of the NRSPI. The results also reveal that rural elders aged below and above 60 years old respond differently to the NRSPI. Due to the income effect, the crowding-out effect of the NRSPI for rural elders aged above 60 years old is more obvious than the ones aged below 60. In addition, the crowing-out impacts of the NRSPI on working hours are also larger, for men and those with poor health, low family economic level, and under the self-employed occupation category.
Accordingly, the policy recommendation may include extending the NRSPI coverage, increasing the pension income level, and protecting low-income individuals’ right to join insurance.

謝辭 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法 5
第三節 研究內容與流程 5
第二章 文獻回顧 9
第一節 美國養老保險對老年人勞動供給影響之文獻探討 9
第二節 西歐國家養老保險對老年人勞動供給影響之文獻探討 11
第三節 開發中國家養老保險對老年人勞動供給影響之文獻探討 12
第四節 小結 14
第三章 養老保險制度介紹 15
第一節 中國養老保險的發展 15
第二節 當前養老保險體系 17
第三節 新農保制度介紹 18
第四節 新農保全國實施現狀 22
第四章 資料介紹 25
第一節 資料來源 25
第二節 資料處理 28
第三節 描述性統計分析 35
第五章 實證模型與方法 47
第一節 理論架構 47
第二節 實證模型 50
第六章 實證結果 57
第一節 新農保對勞動參與之影響 57
第二節 新農保對工作時間之影響 64
第三節 內生性分析 74
第七章 結論與討論 79
第一節 結論 79
第二節 政策建議 82
第三節 研究缺陷 83
參考文獻 85
附錄一 新農保對農村中老年人勞動參與的影響係數（probit模型） 91

中國老齡工作委員會，2006。『中國城鄉老年人口狀況追蹤調查』。北京：中國老齡工作委員會。
王美豔，2005。「中國城市勞動力市場上的性別工資差異」，『經濟研究』。 12期，35-44。
王義才，2000。「土地保障與社會保險相結合是解決農村養老的必然選擇」，『人口研究』。 5期，20-22。
北京市政府，2007，『北京市新型農村社會養老保險試行辦法』。北京：北京市政府。
米紅、王鵬，2010。「新農保制度模式與財政投入實證研究」，『中國社會保障』。 6期，23-25。
何景熙、王建敏、楊茜茜，2012。「城鄉老年人延長勞動參與行為的實證分析——以達州市城鄉社區為例」，『西南民族大學學報』。33期，8-13。
吳玉鋒，2012。「新型農村社會養老保險參與行為實證分析——以村域社會資本為視角」，『中國農村經濟』。 10期，64-76。
吳海盛，2008。「農村老年人農業勞動參與的影響因素——基於江蘇的實證研究」，『農業經濟問題』。5期，73-82。
李冬妍，2011。「新農保制度: 現狀評析與政策建議」，『南京大學學報： 哲學人文科學』。1卷，48期， 30-39。
林全玲，2010。「我國新型農村社會養老保險制度的構建與完善」，『社會科學家』。4期，40-43。
林義，2009。「破解新農保制度運行五大難」，『中國社會保障』。 9期，14-16。
浙江養老保險制度研究課題組、蔡國春、孫勝梅，2013。「浙江城鄉居民社會養老保險制度實踐與研究」，『中國勞動』。 4期，4-9。
郝金磊、賈金榮，2011。「西部地區農民新農保參與意願研究」，『西北人口』。2期，107-110.
國務院，2009。「關於開展新型農村社會養老保險試點的指導意見」。
張文娟，2010。「中國老年人的勞動參與狀況及影響因素研究」，『人口與經濟』。 1期，85-89。
張朝華，2010。「農戶參加新農保的意願及其影響因素」，『農業技術經濟』。 6期，4-10。
梁平、胡以濤、付小鵬，2012。「新型農村社會養老保險替代率測算方法與預測研究——基於政策的仿真推進視角」，『安徽農業科學』。6卷，40期， 3628-3630。
陳華帥、曾毅，2013。「新農保使誰受益: 老人還是子女?」，『經濟研究』。8期，55-67。
程令國、 張曄、劉志彪，2013。「新農保改變了中國農村居民的養老模式嗎?」，『經濟研究』。8期， 42-54。
褚福靈，2004。「養老保險金替代率研究」，『北京市計劃勞動管理幹部學院學報』。12期，17-21。
鄧大松、薛惠元，2010a。「新型農村社會養老保險制度推行中的難點分析——兼析個人, 集體和政府的籌資能力」，『經濟體制改革』。1期， 86-92。
鄧大松、薛惠元，2010b。「新農保財政補助數額的測算與分析——基於 2008 年的數據」，『江西財經大學學報』。2期，38-42。
鄧大松、薛惠元，2013。「新型農村社會養老保險替代率的測算與分析」，『山西財經大學學報』。4期，8-13。
穆懷中，閆琳琳，2012。「新型農村養老保險參保決策影響因素研究」，『人口研究』。 1卷，36期， 73-82。
薛惠元， 張德明，2010。「新農保基金籌集主體籌資能力分析」，『稅務與經濟』。 2期，32-37。
龐麗華、S. Rozelle, and A. D. Brauw, 2003。「中國農村老人的勞動供給研究」，『經濟學季刊』。 3卷，2期， 721-730。
Blau, D. M., 1994. “Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men,” Econometrica. 62(1): 117-156.
Blau, D. M. and R. M. Goodstein, 2010. “Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?” Journal of Human Resources. 45(2): 328-363.
Blundell, R., and J. Smith, 1994. “Coherency and Estimation in Simultaneous Models with Censored or Qualitative Dependent Variables,” Journal of Econometrics. 64(2): 355-373.
Blundell, R., and P. Johnson, 1998. “Pensions and Labor-Market Participation in the United Kingdom,” The American Economic Review. 88(2): 168-172.
Blundell, R., and T. Macurdy, 1999. “Labor Supply: A Review of Alternative Approaches” in Handbook of Labor Economics, eds O. C. Ashenfelter, and D. Card, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp: 1559–1695.
Borsch-Supan, A., 2000. “Incentive Effects of Social Security on Labor Force Participation: Evidence in Germany and Across Europe,” Journal of public economics. 78(1): 25-49.
Borsch-Supan, A., and R. Schnabel, 1998. “Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany,” The American Economic Review. 88(2): 173-178.
Burtless, G., 1986. “Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement,” The Review of Economic Studies. 53(5): 781-805.
Burtless, G., and R. A. Moffitt, 1984. “The Effect of Social Security Benefits on the Labor Supply of the Aged” in Retirement and economic behavior, eds. H. J. Aaron and G. Burtless, Washington: The Brookings Institution, pp: 135-171.
Carrasco, R., 2001. “Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation,” Journal of business &; economic statistics. 19(4): 385-394.
Chan, S., and A. H. Stevens, 2004. “Do Changes in Pension Incentives Affect Retirement? A Longitudinal Study of Subjective Retirement Expectations,” Journal of Public Economic. 88(7): 1307-1333.
Coile, C., and J. Gruber, 2000. “Social Security Incentives for Retirement”, NBER Working paper No. 7651.
Davis-Friedmann, D., 1991. Long Lives: Chinese Elderly and the Communist Revolution, Stanford: Stanford University Press.
De-Carvalho-Filho, I. E., 2008. “Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil,” Journal of Development Economics. 86(1): 129-146.
Feng, J., L. He, and H. Sato, 2011. “Public Pension and Household Saving: Evidence from Urban China,” Journal of Comparative Economics. 39(4): 470-485.
Giles, J., D. Wang, and W. Cai, 2011. “The Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior of China''s Older Workers and Elderly in Comparative Perspective,” Policy Research Working Paper 5853, World Bank, Development Research.
Goode, W. J., 1970. World Revolution and Family Patterns, New York: Free Press.
Heckman, J., 1979. “Sample Selection Bias as Specific Error,” Econometrica, 47(1): 152-161.
Hurd, M. D., and M. J. Boskin, 1984. “The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in the Early 1970s,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 99(4): 767-790.
Hussain, A., 1994. “Social Security in Present-Day China and Its Reform,” The American Economic Review. 84(2): 276-280.
Kapteyn, A., and D. K. Vos, 1998. “Social Security and Labor-Force Participation in the Netherlands,” The American Economic Review. 88(2): 164-167.
Krueger, A. B., and J. S. Pischke, 1992. “The Effect of Social Security on Labor supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation,” Journal of Labor Economics. 10(4): 412–37.
Lee, C., 1998. “The Rise of the Welfare State and Labor-Force Participation of Older Males: Evidence from the Pre-social Security Era,” The American Economic Review. 88(2): 222-226.
Manski, C. F., G. D. Sandefur, S. McLanahan, and D. Powers, 1992. “Alternative estimates of the effect of family structure during adolescence on high school graduation,” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 87(417): 25-37.
Miranda, A., and S. Rabe-Hesketh, 2006. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Endogenous Switching and Sample Selection Models for Binary, Ordinal, and Count Variables,” Stata Journal. 6(3): 285-308.
Monica, D. G., Z. H. Jiang, B. Li, Z. M. Xie, W. Chung, and H. Bae, 2003. “Why Is Son Preference So Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-Country Study of China, India and the Republic of Korea,” The Journal of Development Studies. 40(2): 153-187.
Mosisa, A., and S. Hipple , 2006. “Trends in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Monthly Labor Review. 129(10): 35-57.
Pang, L. H., A. D. Brauw, and S. Rozelle, 2004. “Working Until You Drop: The Elderly of Rural China,” The China Journal, 52: 73-94.
Pencavel, J., 1986. “Labor Supply of Men: A Survey” in Handbook of Labor Economics, eds. O. C. Ashenfelter, and R. Layard, Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp: 3–102.
Rozelle, S., X. Dong, and L. Zhang, 2002. “Gender Wage Gaps in Post&;#8208;Reform Rural China,” Pacific Economic Review. 7(1): 157-179.
Samwick, A. A., 1998. “New Evidence on Pensions, Social Security, and the Timing of Retirement,” Journal of public economics. 70(2): 207-236.
Shen, C., and J. B. Williamson, 2010. “China''s New Rural Pension Scheme: Can It Be Improved?” International journal of sociology and social policy. 30(5/6): 239-250.
Shen, S., F. Li, and J. K. Tanui, 2012. “Quality of Life and Old Age Social Welfare System for the Rural Elderly in China,” Ageing International. 37(3): 285-299.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Highlights and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.220.
Vanderhart, M. J., 2003. “Labor Supply of Older Men: Does Social Security Matter?” Economic Inquiry. 41(2): 250-263.
Vere, J. P., 2011. “Social Security and Elderly Labor Supply: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study,” Labor Economics. 18(5): 676-686.
Wang, D., 2006. “China''s Urban and Rural Old Age Security System: Challenges and Options,” China &; World Economy. 14(1): 102-116.
Yan, Y., 2003. Private Life Under Socialism: Love, Intimacy, and Family Change in a Chinese Village, 1949-1999, Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Yang, Y., J. B. Williamson, and C. Shen, 2010, “Social Security for China''s Rural Aged: A Proposal Based on a Universal Non&;#8208;Contributory Pension,” International Journal of Social Welfare. 19(2): 236-245.