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研究生:王振宇
研究生(外文):Chen-Yu Wang
論文名稱:影響台灣出境旅遊的關鍵因素
論文名稱(外文):The determinants and features of Taiwan’s outbound tourism : An approach of panel data analysis
指導教授:張順教張順教引用關係
口試委員:張順教
口試日期:2014-05-30
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣科技大學
系所名稱:企業管理系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:英文
論文頁數:74
中文關鍵詞:台灣出境旅遊縱橫資料迴歸模型簽證政策自由行政策暑期旅遊
外文關鍵詞:Taiwan’s outbound tourismPanel data regression modelVisa policyFree and Independent Travel policySummer tourism
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:229
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:13
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究主要是在探討影響台灣出境旅遊的關鍵因素,樣本為挑選出的12 個國家,分別是中國、港澳、日本、美國、泰國、韓國、越南、印尼、馬來西亞、新加坡、菲律賓和加拿大,研究年份從1997年第一季到2012年第四季,總共涵蓋64個季度。
本研究運用縱橫資料迴歸模型。在主要的模型中,本研究提出重要的看法對於顯著的變數;在不同模型中,本研究也提出了四點重要的發現,最重要的一點是本研究認為簽證政策的效果可能需要長期被觀察,短期的效果可能有所偏誤。最後,相對於過去的研究,本研究額外加入了自由行政策效果以及暑期旅遊效果。
This study mainly investigates the determinants and features of Taiwan’s outbound tourism based on 12 selected countries, which are China, Hong Kong &; Macao, Japan, the USA, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Canada during the period from 1997Q1 to 2012Q4. It covers a total of 64 quarters. This study utilizes a panel data regression model. From the results of the primary model, this study derives important conclusions regarding significant variables. Among the different models, this study also arrives at four key findings. Most of all, this study suggests that the effect of the visa policy could produce biased results in the short run, and so the effect may need to be observed over a longer time period. Finally, this study also employs a Free and Independent Travel (FIT) policy and summer tourism as explanatory variables in relation to earlier study.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
Contents iii
Table of Contents iv
Figure of Contents v
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 The background and motivation 1
1.2 The purposes of the research 4
1.3 The framework of the research 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review 6
Chapter 3 Methodology 18
3.1 Data sources and sample description 18
3.2 Definition of variables 20
3.3 Testing for multicollinearity 33
3.4 Model derivation 36
Chapter 4 Empirical Results 40
4.1 Empirical model selection and consequences 40
4.2 Empirical findings for the primary model 44
4.3 Empirical findings for the different models 50
Chapter 5 Conclusions 57
References 60
Appendix A 64
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Drutu, M., (2011) The effects of economic crisis on tourism, European Integration - Realities and Perspectives Proceedings 6.
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Khadaroo, J., and Seetanah, B., (2007) Transport infrastructure and tourism development, Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4), 1021-1032.
Khadaroo, J., and Seetanah, B., (2008) The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: a gravity model approach, Tourism Management, 29(5), 831-840.
Kim, H.B., Park, J.H., Lee, S.K., and Jang, S.C., (2012) Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea, Tourism Management, 33(5), 1141-1147.
Kim, H.J., Chen, M.C., and Jang, S.C., (2006) Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan, Tourism Management, 27(5), 925-933.
Kimura, F., and Lee, H.H., (2006) Gravity equation in international trade in services, Review of World Economics, 142(1), 92-121.
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Kusni, A., Kadir, N., and Nayan, S., (2013) International tourism demand in Malaysia by tourists from OECD countries: A panel data econometric analysis, International Conference on Economics and Business Research 2013, 7, 28-34.
Lee, W.J., and Brahmasrene, T., (2013) Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union, Tourism Management, 38(5), 69-76.
Leitao, N.C., (2010) Does trade help to explain tourism demand? The case of Portugal, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 17(3), 63-74.
Lim, C., and McAleer, M., (2001) Modelling the determinants of international tourism demands to Australia, Discussion Paper No 532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka.
Mushtaq, A., and Zaman, K., (2013) Impact of macroeconomic factors on tourism receipts: Evidence from SAARC region, European Economics Letters, 2(2), 38-43.
Naude, W.A., and Saayman, A., (2005) The determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis, Tourism Economics, 11(3), 365-391.
Neumayer ,E., (2010) Visa restrictions and bilateral travel, The professional Geographer, 62(2), 1-11.
Oh, C.O., (2005) The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy, Tourism Management, 26(1), 39-44.
Papatheodorou, A., Rossello, J., and Xiao, H., (2010) Global economic crisis and tourism: consequences and perspectives, Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 39-45.
Roy , M., and Rayhan, M.I., (2012) Import flows of Bangladesh: gravity model approach under panel data methodology, Dhaka University Journal of Science, 60(2), 153-157
Samimi, A.J., Sadeghi, S., and Sadeghi, S., (2011) Tourism and economic growth in developing countries: P-VAR Approach, Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 10(1), 28-32.
Surugiu, C., Leitao, N.C., and Surugiu, M.R., (2011) A panel data modelling of international tourism demand: Evidences for Romania, Ekonomska Istrazivanja Economic Research, 24(1), 134-145.
Tse, Y.C., (2001) Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism: Evidence from HongKong, Tourism Economics, 7(3), 277-293.
Yap, G., (2013) The impacts of exchange rates on Australia’s domestic and outbound travel markets, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 93, 139-150.
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