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研究生:俞光回
研究生(外文):KUANG-HUI YU
論文名稱:軟體人力預估精確性提升專案
論文名稱(外文):Project for Improving Software Effort Estimation Precision
指導教授:黃世禎黃世禎引用關係
指導教授(外文):Sun-Jen Huang
口試委員:黃世禎
口試委員(外文):Sun-Jen Huang
口試日期:2014-01-10
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣科技大學
系所名稱:資訊管理系
學門:電算機學門
學類:電算機一般學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:63
中文關鍵詞:軟體人力估算變革管理團隊學習
外文關鍵詞:Software Effort EstimationChange ManagementTeam Learning
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鑑於專案經理在進行軟體人力估算時,常因本身能力及歷練不同而在人力估算時有極大差異,因此軟體人力估算不精準也成為專案失敗關鍵因素之一。為了更有效的提昇軟體人力估算的精準度及透過團隊學習來凝聚團隊的共識,在潛移默化中進行流程變革以達到提昇企業的獲利能力,成為本個案思考的方向與新的課題。
本個案主要目的是以 InfoTech 公司的工程部門計劃建構軟體人力估算系統的同時,並運用團隊學習方法,嘗試著改變企業現有的人力估算思維及文化,帶動組織進行相關流程變革。面對新資訊科技的導入,需排除眾人疑慮及抗拒反彈,將此流程推廣執行的更順暢;透過團隊學習方法及手段去凝聚共識達到公司的目標並創造多贏的新局;累積多種估算模式執行的經驗後,建構成組織標準估算模型(Standard Estimation Model),這些過程在公司變革路上成為重要的催化劑,不但為公司創造競爭優勢,也引領公司在系統整合產業發展上更具競爭力。
本論文採用哈佛式個案撰寫法,包含個案本文及教學指引兩部份,教學指引針對個案中的討論內容做詳細說明,主要議題有變革管理、團隊學習、軟體人力估算,分別就文獻學說及個案分析做整理,以期達到理論與實務相結合之目的。透過本個案可以了解改變現有的工作習慣是一件不容易的事;推動軟體人力估算模型作業是為了改善專案經理人的缺點,它牽涉到個人習慣、企業文化、系統流程、運用技術及工具,如何突破種種限制順利完成標準化軟體人力估算模型作業為本教學式個案論文探討之重點。
While project managers conduct software effort estimation, software effort estimation often remains a big difference due to their own ability and experience. Hence the precision of software effort estimation also becomes one of the key factors to project failure. That how to effectively improve the precision of software effort estimation, agglomerate the consensus through the team learning, and carry on processes improvement to imperceptibly promote capability of enterprise profit has become an important topic and direction of this case enterprise.
The main purpose of this teaching case is to illustrate the project of how to construct the software effort estimation model, change the thinking and culture of enterprise by team learning approach, and improve the relevant processes in the engineering department of InfoTech Company. The case describes how to eliminate all doubts and reduce employee’s resistance after the introduction of new information technology. It also describes how to smoothly execute the pilot promotion through team learning method, and how to agglomerate the consensus to achieve the company's goals and therefore create a multi-win new situation. As the experience of software effort estimation accumulates, it will be an important catalyst for this case enterprise on the road to corporate transformation and revolution, and further lead the case enterprise to be more competitive in the system integration industry.
The paper adopts Harvard Case Writing Method, which includes the “Case Text” and “Teacher Reference Manual”. The “Teacher Reference Manual” explains the case content and discussion in details. Main topics include “Software Effort Estimation”, “Change Management” and “Team Learning”. This thesis includes academic theory and case analysis to achieve the aim of combining theory and practice. Through this case study we can understand that it is not an easy task to change existing working habit and culture of an enterprise. Promoting the software effort estimation model involves the changes of existing personal habit, corporate culture, and system processes, technology and tool. The issue how to break through the difficulties in constructing software effort estimation model is the main topic addressed by this teaching case thesis.
中文摘要 I
Abstract II
誌 謝 III
目 錄 IV
圖 目 錄 VI
表 目 錄 VII
壹、 個案本文 1
一、 金融海嘯餘震 1
(一) 營收略減利潤卻大幅下滑 1
(二) 個案公司概況 2
二、 面對業務疑慮 4
三、 執行部屬抗拒 4
四、 啟動研究、試行及決策 4
(一) 估算類型的發現 5
(二) 第一類:專家經驗型估算(2009/7) 8
(三) 第二類:排程型估算(2009/10)-以MS Project排程軟體為例 10
(四) 第三類: WBS型估算(2010/2) 14
(五) 選用FPA估算模式(2010/10) 18
(六) 改良式FPA估算模式(2011/10) 20
(七) 建立軟體人力估算模型 25
五、 量化有成效益顯現 26
六、 分析驗證完成使命 28
貳、 個案教學指引 30
一、 個案總覽 30
二、 教學目標與適用課程 30
三、 學員課前討論問題 34
四、 個案背景 34
(一) 個案描述 34
(二) 個案故事層次及里程碑 35
(三) 個案人物 36
五、 管理議題與理論 37
(一) 三大層次的研究議題 37
(二) 理論與管理應用 38
(三) 議題:變革管理 39
(四) 議題:團隊學習 46
(五) 議題:軟體人力估算 50
六、 引導問題與探討重點 54
七、 教學建議 55
八、 板書規劃 56
(一) 板書1:軟體人力估算方法及概念 56
(二) 板書2:功能點(FPA)估算模式 58
(三) 板書3:學習型組織建構 59
(四) 板書4:變革管理 60
參、 參考文獻 61
一、中文文獻 61
二、英文文獻 61
一、中文文獻
1.彼得‧聖吉、布萊恩‧史密斯、妮娜‧庫魯斯維茲、喬‧勞爾、莎拉‧史雷(2010),「必要的革命-個人組織如何創造永續社會」,天下文化。
2.唐.泰普史考特、安東尼.威廉斯(2010),李芳齡譯(2011),「打造維基型組織:集體協作的威力」,天下雜誌。
3.彼得‧聖吉,郭進隆譯(1994),「第五項修練」,天下文化。
4.林信惠、黃明祥、王文良(2010),軟體專案管理(再版),智勝文化
5.毛良斌,鄭全全.團隊學習研究綜述.人類工效學,2007年12月第13捲第4期
6.吳定、鄭勝分、李盈盈(2005),《組織發展應用技術》。臺北:智勝文化公司。

二、英文文獻
1.Yinhuan Zheng, Yilong Zheng, Beizhan Wang, Liang Shi. (2009) , “Estimation of software projects effort based on function point,” Proceedings of 2009 4th International Conference on Computer Science & Education.
2.Hancheng Liao,” Research on Software Development Estimation, School of software, JIANGXI University of Finance & Economics.
3.Ron Rammage, Hairong Lei, Michael Claus, David Baer., “Expert Software Development Estimation with Uncertainty Correction,” R&D Software Development Abbott Medical Optics Albuquerque, NM USA.
4.The Standish Group: Chaos Chronicles Version 3.0. 2003:West Yarmouth, MA.
5.Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 181-193.
6.R. Stutzke, Estimating Software-Intensive System:Projects, Products, and Processes, Upper Saddle River, NJ,2005. pp 49-79.
7.L. Laranjeira, “Software Size Estimation of Object Oriented Systems”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 16 No. 5, pp 510-512, May 1990.
8.McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 35.
9.B. Boehm, Software Engineering Economics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall Inc. pp 311, 1981.
10.M. Jorgensen, “A review of studies on Expert Estimation of software development effort”, Simula Research Laboratory.Available at http://simula.no/research/se/publications/SE.4.Joergensen.2004.c/simula_pdf_file [Feb 20, 2010].
11.M. Jorgensen, D.I.K. Sjoberg, “The impact of customer expectation on software development effort estimates”, International Journal of Project Management, 22, pp 317-325, 2004. Available at www.sciencedirect.com [Feb. 6, 2010].
12.Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 109.
13.Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 150-155.
14.Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 122.
15.Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond WA: Microsoft Press, 2006. pp 110.
16.Hairong Lei, Michael Claus, Ron Rammage, C.David Baer, Rene Decool, Joe Michael Kniss, Stephen Clyde, Donald Cooley, Dongxia Liu, “Software’s Eight Essentials”, ISBN: 978-0-7695-3687-3; 2009 International Conference on New Trends in Information and Service Science.
17.Peretz Shoval and Ofer Feldman, "Combining Function Points Software Estimation Model with ADISSA Methodology for Systems Analysis and Design", Information Systems Program, Dept. of Industrial Engineering and Management Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science
18.Jacky Keung, " Software Development Cost Estimation using Analogy: A Review", NICTA Ltd., Sydney, Australia, CSE/UNSW, Sydney, Australia
19.FU Ya-fang, LIU Xiao-dong, YANG Ren-nong, DU Yi-lin, LI Yan-jie, " A Software Size Estimation Method Based on Improved FPA", Department of Aviation Material Management Engineering, The Engineering College of Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China
20.LI Jun, LIN Jianming, JIN Yongqin, CHEN Qingzhang,, "Development of the Decision Support System for Software Project Cost Estimation", 2008 International Symposium on Information Science and Engieering
21.Yeong-Seok Seo, Kyung-A Yoon, Doo-Hwan Bae, " Improving the Accuracy of Software Effort Estimation based on Multiple Least Square Regression Models by Estimation Error-based Data Partitioning", 2009 16th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference
22.Xiangzhu Gao and Bruce Lo, " A Modified Function Point Method for CAL Systems with Respect to Software Cost Estimation", Southern Cross University, Lismore, NS W, Australia 2480
23.Joao Carlos Cunha, Sergio Cruz, Marco Costa, Ana Rita Rodrigues, Marco Vieira, " Implementing Software Effort Estimation in a Medium-sized Company", 2011 34th IEEE Software Engineering Workshop
24.David Longstreet, " Function Points Analysis Training Course", www.SoftwareMetrics.Com
25.Murali K. Chemuturi J. Ross Publishing, "Software Estimation Best Practices, Tools & Techniques: A Complete Guide for Software Project Estimators", c 2009 (321 pages) Citation ISBN:9781604270242
26.Peter R. Hill (ed) McGraw-Hill/Osborne, " Practical Software Project Estimation: A Toolkit for Estimating Software Development Effort & Duration ", c 2011 (312 pages) Citation ISBN:9780071717915
27.Daniel D. Galorath Michael W. Evans Auerbach Publications, " Practical Software Project Estimation: A Toolkit for Estimating Software Development Effort & Duration ", c 2006 (574 pages) Citation ISBN:9780849335938
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