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研究生:張素麗
研究生(外文):Chang, Su-Li
論文名稱:GDP、能源消耗與二氧化碳排放因果關係之探討-以台灣、韓國、香港、新加坡為例
論文名稱(外文):The Granger Causality Relationship between GDP, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions-Evidence from Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.
指導教授:郭國誠郭國誠引用關係
指導教授(外文):Kuo, Kuo-Cheng
口試委員:郭國誠廖俊杰陳美惠
口試委員(外文):Kuo, Kuo-ChengLiao, Chun-ChiehChen, Mei-Hui
口試日期:2014-06-27
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:國際貿易學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:貿易學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:64
中文關鍵詞:GDP能源消耗二氧化碳排放Granger因果關係檢定
外文關鍵詞:gross domestic productenergy consumptioncarbon dioxide emissionsGranger causality test
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本研究選定台灣、韓國、香港、新加坡作為研究對象,期間自1970至2012年,探究GDP、能源消耗與二氧化碳排放三變數之間的因果關係。實證結果顯示,台灣、香港與韓國在「能源消耗對GDP」短期存在正向因果關係;在「二氧化碳對GDP」則短期存在負向因果關係;韓國在「能源消耗對二氧化碳」短期存在雙向因果關係,新加坡在三變數間則互無顯著之因果關係存在。在政策建議上,台灣、香港及韓國產業部門應重視生產要素替代效果,產業應發展使用低耗能、低汙染之高科技生產技術。善用現今快速普及的網路數位雲端科技的趨勢,可遠距改變產業工作流程的優勢,如此方能兼顧環保與經濟發展。新加坡應提高人民對於環境保護的意識,增加對於使用節能商品的意願,並研發改善二氧化碳排放密集度的新技術,在保持經濟增長的同時,兼顧環境保護,也尊重後代人的權利。
This study investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore for the period of 1970-2012. The empirical results indicate unidirectional causality relationship running from energy consumption to GDP and running from carbon dioxide emissions to GDP in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea. It also finds that the bidirectional causality relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Korea. On policy recommendations, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea should pay attention to the substitution effect of factors of production. The industry should develop the use of low energy consumption, low pollution-intensive, high-tech production techniques in order to take into account environmental protection and economic development. Singapore should raise the people's awareness of environmental protection, increase the use of energy-efficient products for the willingness to improve the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions technology research and development, to maintain economic growth while taking into account environmental protection, but also respect the rights of future generations.
中文摘要 ..................... iii

英文摘要 ..................... iv

誌謝辭  ..................... v

內容目錄 ..................... vi

表目錄  ..................... viii

圖目錄  ..................... ix
第一章  緒論................... 1
  第一節  研究背景............... 1
  第二節  研究問題與目的............ 6
  第三節  研究架構與流程............ 8
第二章  文獻回顧................. 11
  第一節  GDP與能源消耗之關係......... 11
  第二節  GDP與二氧化碳排放之關係....... 14
  第三節  能源消耗與二氧化碳排放之關係..... 15
第三章  研究方法................. 17
  第一節  變數定義............... 17
  第二節  資料來源............... 17
  第三節  單根檢定............... 19
  第四節  落後期選擇方法............ 21
  第五節  共整合檢定.............. 22
  第六節  向量自我迴歸模型........... 23
  第七節  向量誤差修正模型........... 24
  第八節  Granger因果關係檢定......... 25
第四章  實證分析................. 29
  第一節  單根檢定............... 29
  第二節  最適落後期數選擇方法與共整合檢定... 31
  第三節  向量自我迴歸模型........... 35
  第四節  Granger因果關係檢定......... 40
第五章  結論與建議................ 46
  第一節  研究結論............... 46
  第二節  後續研究與建議............ 49
參考文獻 ..................... 53

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