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研究生:黃惠琴
研究生(外文):Hui-Chin Huang
論文名稱:內部人過度自信對股票購回後風險與營運績效之影響
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Insider’s Overconfidence on Post-Repurchase Risk and Operating Performance
指導教授:劉永欽劉永欽引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yong-Chin Liu
口試委員:劉永欽蔡永順陳香如
口試委員(外文):Yong-Chin LiuYung-Shun TsaiHsiang-Ju Chen
口試日期:2014-01-13
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:亞洲大學
系所名稱:國際企業學系碩士在職專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
語文別:中文
論文頁數:46
中文關鍵詞:內部人過度自信系統風險營運績效股票購回
外文關鍵詞:Insidersoverconfidencesystematic riskoperating performanceshare repurchase
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:1
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  • 下載下載:8
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本研究延伸過去對於經理人過度自信在股票購回決策影響的研究,深入探討在公司內部人有過度自信偏誤之下,是否會引起股票購回後,長期營運績效降低、系統風險上升之現象。公司內部人若因過度自信而認為公司股價被低估,因而執行股票購回,則因事前低估公司未來風險和高估營運績效,事後可能事與願違。本研究預期公司若有過度自信之內部人做股票購回決策,則購回後之營運績效會降低,而股票之系統風險會提高。
實證樣本是我國上市上櫃公司之股票購回事件,期間自2000年8月至2013年12月止,利用內部人於購回前一年的持股變動狀況和執行後半年的股票報酬兩個條件,判斷內部人是否過度自信,再檢定其與後續營運績效和風險之關係。實證結果發現,內部人過度自信並不至於造成股票購回後的系統風險上升,但會導致營運績效降低。因此,內部人過度自信對股票購回之股價宣告效果的負面影響,與購回後營運績效惡化有關,而與系統風險之變化無關。此結果可供投資人選股參考。

This study extends past researches about the impact of managerial overconfidence on share repurchase decisions, and addresses in depth whether firm’s insiders with overconfidence bias causes post-repurchase long-term operating performance to reduce and systematic risk to rise. If insiders with overconfidence think that their stock underprices, and thus the firm performs share repurchases, then it is likely that firm’s post-repurchase operating performance declines and systematic risk rises because of pre-repurchase wrong estimating. This study expects that overconfident insiders’ repurchase decisions will face ex-post lower operating performance and higher risks.
The empirical sample is share repurchase events performed by stock-listed and over-the-counter firms in Taiwan .The period is from August, 2000 to December, 2013. The study determines whether insiders are overconfident using both conditions, which are changes in their ownerships during one year pre-repurchases and post-repurchase six-month stock returns. The relationships between insider overconfidence and both post-repurchase operating performance and risks are tested. The empirical finding is that overconfident insiders do not induce post-repurchase systematic risks to rise, but cause operating performance to decline. Therefore, the negative impact of managerial overconfidence on stock price announcement effects around repurchase period is related to the worse operating performance, but unrelated to the change in systematic risk. Investors can refer to the empirical results when they invest stocks.

中文摘要I
英文摘要II
目錄IV
表目錄VI
圖目錄VII
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與目的1
第二節 研究架構3
第二章 文獻回顧與假說建立5
第一節 股票購回5
第二節 經理人過度自信的現象與影響16
第三節 經理人過度自信與股票購回決策17
第四節 假說建立19
第三章 研究設計20
第一節 內部人過度自信之衡量20
第二節 長期營運績效之衡量21
第三節 系統風險改變之判定22
第四節 假說檢定方法 22
第五節 樣本說明25
第四章 實證結果27
第一節 單變量分析結果27
第二節 多元迴歸分析結果31
第五章 結論36
參考文獻37



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