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研究生:松柔霓
研究生(外文):Oren, Roni
論文名稱:中國中東介入政策的評估:權力轉移現象的浮現?
論文名稱(外文):Assessing China's Engagement in the Middle East: Emerging Power Transition?
指導教授:楊昊楊昊引用關係
指導教授(外文):Yang, Alan Hao
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:區域研究學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:103
語文別:英文
論文頁數:132
中文關鍵詞:中國中東美國權力轉移理論超越均勢經濟安全能源
外文關鍵詞:ChinaMiddle EastUnited StatesPower transition theoryovertakingparityeconomymilitaryenergy
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本研究主要探討中國如何介入中東地區,並且檢視其多重戰略操作現況,其中包括了安全議題、能源議題、以及經貿議題。透過中國藉由上述議題介入中東事務的發展,本研究期望能呈現中國的中東外交政策及其未來發展趨勢。本研究以中國與美國兩強是否會在中東地區發生權力轉移的可能作為研究問題,有鑑於此,本研究以AFK Organski的權力轉移理論作為全文的概念化基礎,並且重新檢視權力轉移理論在近年來的發展與實踐。就此,本研究將回應下列幾個問題:中國的中東外交政策之主要戰略目的為何?此一政策在中國全方位外交政策中的權重與定位為何?中國與中東國家的交往及雙邊關係中,所具備的優勢與劣勢為何?從結構層次來說,中國與美國在中東是否將達到權力平衡的局面?最後,中國是否滿意現階段自身在中東的地位以及中東地緣政治本身的現況?又或者中國傾向改變中東現狀,並且有意取代美國。本研究透過對上述問題的重新檢視,發現如果中國在中東所介入的勢力與議題越廣泛,並且以挑戰美國霸權為前提全力推進中國的中東介入政策,這意味著中東的現狀與規則將會被調整與改變,進而產生權力轉移的情況。不過,中國現階段並未有意、有能力挑戰美國在中東的戰略地位,因為這將使得中國與美國的結構性矛盾導向衝突。
This study aims at examining the different aspects of China’s involvement in the Middle East: security, energy and economy, in the context of its evolving foreign policy and changing international status. The main question of the research is whether a power transition between the US and China is possible in the region of the Middle East. Hence. The power transition theory developed by AFK Organski in the 1950s is the basis of this research. The main question is answered by several secondary questions: What is China's foreign policy in the Middle East, and how does it combine into its overall foreign policy; What are the strong points as opposed to the weak points of China's relations with Middle Eastern countries; Is China on the course of achieving parity with the US in the region of Middle East? And the last one, is China satisfied with its current role in the Middle East and the regional existing order, or it would like to alter it in order for it to be able to replace the US as the hegemonic power in the area. If China is indeed becoming more powerful in the area and is challenging the American hegemony, the transformation of the current order and accepted rules of the games in the region could be changed to accommodate China’s needs, and this might lead to tension between China and the US or even conflicts.
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Purpose of Research 2
1.3 Research Questions 5
1.4 Framework 6
1.4.1 Independent Variables 7
1.4.2 Dependent Variables 9
1.4.3 Intermediate Variable 11
1.5 Methodology 12
1.5.1 Scope 13
1.5.2 Limits and Challenges 14
1.5.3 Chapter Layout 16
Chapter 2 Literature Review 17
2.1 Power Transition Theory 17
2.1.1 Development of Power Transition Theory 17
2.1.2 Application of Power Transition Theory to the Rise of China 22
2.2 China's Foreign Relations 1949-2015 24
2.2.1 Foreign Policy in the Revolutionary Era 1949-1976 24
2.2.2 Reform and Opening up Starting in Late 1970s 25
2.2.3 International Organizations and Regional Mechanisms 27
2.2.4 New Foreign Policy Initiatives 2012-2015 29
2.3 China- Middle East Relations 33
2.3.1 Marginal Influence and Attempts in Spreading Ideology 34
2.3.2 Expansion of Diplomatic Relations 35
2.3.3 Deeper Involvement through Arms Sales and Economic Incentives 36
2.3.4 Energy and Economic Interests Drive China to the Middle East 37
2.3.5 From Non-intervention to Increasing Involvement 38
Chapter 3 Military and Security Involvement 41
3.1 China 41
3.1.1 Military Strategy 41
3.1.2 One Belt One Road Initiative 44
3.1.3 Chinese Participation in International Military Missions 45
3.1.4 Naval Capabilities 47
3.1.5 Arms Sales 50
3.1.6 The ISIL Crisis 52
3.2 The US 53
3.2.1 Arms Sales 53
3.2.2 Military Campaigns 56
3.2.3 Routine Military Presence 59
3.3 Local Reactions to Military &; Security External Involvement 63
3.4 Conclusion 69
Chapter 4 Energy and Economy Involvement 73
4.1 China 73
4.1.1 Oil and Natural Gas 73
4.1.2 Trade and Investment 79
4.2 The US 85
4.2.1 Oil and Natural Gas 85
4.2.2 Trade and Investment 87
4.3 Local Reactions to Energy &; Economy External Involvement 93
4.4 Conclusion 100
Chapter 5 Research Findings and Future Scenario 102
5.1 Research Findings102
5.2 Future Scenario 109
Bibliography 114
Appendix Questions asked during the conducted interviews 132
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