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研究生:顏志昇
論文名稱:從歐元經驗看亞洲共同貨幣未來發展
論文名稱(外文):A study on the development of common currency in Asia based on Euro experience
指導教授:蔡孟佳蔡孟佳引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:國際經營與貿易研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:貿易學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:127
中文關鍵詞:歐元亞元亞洲通貨單位最適通貨區域理論
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歐元之誕生帶給歷經亞洲金融風暴後亟思區域金融穩定以及擺脫美元依賴之東亞各國思考是否有建制共同貨幣之契機。然而歐洲共同貨幣雖帶給歐元區國家十年之光景,但其背後卻隱藏著某些制度面之問題,這些問題在二○○八年之全球金融海嘯催化下一一浮現,導致後續歐元區問題國家陷入主權債信危機之泥淖當中,市場上一度懷疑歐元區是否將因此而崩盤。而本文透過貨幣聯盟之理論基礎-最適通貨區域理論之建構、歐洲貨幣整合之歷史脈絡與歐元相關規範之實際運作情形以及歐債危機事件來試圖釐清歐元在制度方面所存在之缺失。

本文發現歐元區各國經濟體質、發展差異甚大,卻刻使用同一種貨幣,顯然與最適通貨區域理論有所悖離;然推究其原因,應是歐元創立所代表之「政治意涵」凌駕於「經濟意涵」之上,缺乏穩固之經濟整合基礎卻加速推進貨幣整合進程可謂當時決策者們在歷史機緣下不得不為之豪賭,且德法兩國不遵守「穩定暨成長公約」,卻得以政治手段免去相關罰則,造成之財政紀律廢弛更是雪上加霜;而從歐債危機事件中也看出歐元區缺乏金融緊急救援機制,以及應可省思將早期預警功能與退場機制結合並確實執行,以達勸戒及嚇阻之效。

在亞洲共同貨幣之建制方面,應可借鏡歐元區至今為止之起伏歷程以及參考本文所點出之若干要點,作為初步的規劃方向;另外在日圓國際化受挫、人民幣崛起背景下,日本、中國兩大區域強權雖對於區域貨幣整合策略有所分歧,但於撼動「東亞美元本位體系」上應可達成共識。是以日本或可朝此方向爭取中國在建制亞洲通貨單位上的支持。然而由於亞洲政經情勢過於複雜使得透過亞洲貨幣整合以通往「亞元」之漫漫長路上仍有眾多阻礙,此也在在考驗著各國決策者之政治決心以及手腕智慧。

第壹章 緒論...........................................1
第一節 研究背景、動機與目的...........................1
第二節 研究方法.....................................6
第三節 研究架構.....................................7
第貳章 共同通貨區、最適通貨區域理論與單一貨幣之利弊...9
第一節 共同通貨區概念與最適通貨區域理論.............9
第二節 採用單一貨幣制度之效益......................18
第三節 採用單一貨幣制度之成本......................22
第參章 歐洲單一貨幣制度之發展歷史....................27
第一節 歐洲戰後政經整合背景至魏納報告..............28
第二節 蛇形浮動至歐洲貨幣體系......................35
第三節 戴洛報告至馬斯垂克條約之生效................41
第肆章 歐元區制度缺失及危機爆發後應對之道............48
第一節 歐盟國家加入歐元區之程序與應遵守之規範......48
第二節 歐債危機與歐元區結構性問題..................55
第三節 歐盟對於歐債危機的因應之道與制度面改革......65
第伍章 亞洲區域金融合作倡議與共同貨幣思潮發展........74
第一節 自亞洲金融風暴以來主要的區域金融合作之倡議..74
第二節 亞洲共同貨幣思潮發展........................89
第陸章 亞洲貨幣整合應克服之困難及未來可能發展走向....94
第一節 亞洲貨幣整合可由歐元經驗所得之借鏡…........94
第二節 亞元未來可能之發展方向......................99
第柒章 結論與建議...................................105
第一節 研究結論...................................105
第二節 研究建議...................................108

參考文獻.............................................110


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三、歐盟相關法律、決議文件
1. Council Decision 2010/320/EU, addressed to Greece with a view to reinforcing and deepening fiscal surveillance and giving notice to Greece to take measures for the deficit reduction judged necessary to remedy the situation of excessive deficit, 2010 O.J. (L 145) 6.
2. Council Decision 2011/199/EU, European Council Decision of 25 March 2011 amending Article 136 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union with regard to a stability mechanism for Member States whose currency is the euro, 2011 O.J. (L 91) 1-2.
3. Council Regulation (EC), No. 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies, Official Journal L 209, 02/08/1997 P.0001-0005.
4. Council Regulation (EC), No. 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure, Official Journal L 209, 02/08/1997 P.0006-0011.
5. European Union, Consolidated versions of the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Official Journal C 326, 26/10/2012 P.0001-0390.
6. Resolution of the European Council on the Stability and Growth Pact Amsterdam, 17 June 1997, Official Journal C 236, 02/08/1997 P.0001-0002.


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