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研究生:陳姿云
研究生(外文):Chen, Tzu Yun
論文名稱:策略聯盟與迎合或擊敗分析師盈餘預測之關聯性實證研究
論文名稱(外文):An Empirical Study of the Association between Strategic Alliances and Meeting or Beating Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
指導教授:梁嘉紋梁嘉紋引用關係
指導教授(外文):Liang, Jia Wen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立政治大學
系所名稱:會計研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:70
中文關鍵詞:策略聯盟分析師之盈餘預測門檻盈餘管理預期管理
外文關鍵詞:Strategic AllianceAnalysts' Earnings ForecastsEarnings ManagementForecast Management
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會計盈餘是企業向投資人傳達營運績效的指標,又投資人視公司達成分析師預測門檻與否為企業前景的重要訊號。當公司宣告策略聯盟決策時,資本市場給予正面評價,不過策略聯盟協議可能使管理當局存在機會主義與盈餘管理活動,過去文獻發現,有策略聯盟的公司,其盈餘品質較低。本文探究企業執行策略聯盟對於跨越盈餘門檻的關聯性,觀察策略聯盟事件是否為管理當局進行盈餘管理或是預期管理的工具,以迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。本文實證發現策略聯盟與否及策略聯盟多寡與分析師預測門檻具有顯著正相關,而執行策略聯盟之公司從事向下引導分析師預測的機率較低,此外,實證結果亦發現,策略聯盟會降低公司管理當局採取向上調整裁決性應計數的可能性。綜上研究顯示,有策略聯盟之企業達成分析師預測門檻的機會較高,然而,其管理當局較不會選擇應計項目盈餘管理或預期管理方式來迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 5
第三節 研究架構 7
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 盈餘管理相關文獻 8
第二節 門檻心理下的管理行為 15
第三節 策略聯盟相關文獻 18
第三章 研究方法 20
第一節 研究假說 20
第二節 分析方法 23
第三節 變數定義與衡量 25
第四節 資料來源與處理 30
第五節 實證模型 32
第四章 實證結果及分析 34
第一節 樣本選取結果 34
第二節 樣本敘述統計 36
第三節 列聯表分析 46
第四節 羅吉斯迴歸結果 49
第五節 額外測試 53
第五章 研究結論與建議 58
第一節 研究結論 58
第二節 研究貢獻 61
第三節 研究限制 62
第四節 研究建議 63
參考文獻 64

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紅立勝,2000,我國上市公司分析師盈餘預測與盈餘管理關聯性之實證研究,國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。
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