跳到主要內容

臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

(100.24.118.144) 您好!臺灣時間:2022/12/06 04:57
字體大小: 字級放大   字級縮小   預設字形  
回查詢結果 :::

詳目顯示

: 
twitterline
研究生:李宛蓉
研究生(外文):Wan-JungLi
論文名稱:不連續生產販賣易腐性商品之研究
論文名稱(外文):The production and selling of the perishable items in discontinuous process
指導教授:王泰裕王泰裕引用關係
指導教授(外文):Tai-Yue Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:工業與資訊管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:52
中文關鍵詞:適應性類神經模糊推論系統不連續生產情境下之販賣模式易腐性存貨
外文關鍵詞:Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)small-scale family farmsperishable product
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:128
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:6
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
農業貿易自由化早已成為國際趨勢,加入WTO後,農業貿易自由化促成無國界競爭的強化,台灣農業面臨的外部威脅是以經濟規模和專業分工打造強勢競爭的農業大國,而台灣的農業經營型態為小農家庭農場為主,缺乏經濟規模、通路議價能力以及高齡化的農業勞力,成為阻礙產業競爭力的內部劣勢。因此,台灣的小農面臨農業經濟大國的威脅,該如何在小農耕種的體制下,以農業經營管理的知識來彌補其劣勢為台灣農業發展之重要課題。
本研究以台灣主要的農業經營型態—小農家庭農場且採用隧道式栽種之農產品為研究對象,希望嘗試以農民可以獲取的資料及已具備之模糊規則知識,透過適應性類神經模糊推論系統進行農產品可販售期間價格波動之預測,來降低小農對於市場價格資訊的不確定性,再根據農產品實際耕種情形建立一個不連續生產情境下之採收販賣模式,同時考量農產品之易腐特性,以利潤最大化為目標,來制訂農產品的最佳販售決策。
最後,將利用訪問農家得出實際參數來驗證本模式,再使用敏感度分析歸納出對於利潤影響較顯著的參數,並給予販賣政策的建議。分析結果顯示,農產品價格、生產量損耗率以及單位生產成本對於利潤影響較為顯著,農家欲增加利潤,可從了解農產品供需市場資訊以預測價格趨勢、提升栽培技術以降低生產損耗率以及落實成本管理來分類各成本之細項以利於控制並降低單位生產成本。

This study focuses on small-scale family farms with tunnel farming. With data from the farmers and fuzzy rules knowledge, Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was applied to forecast the market price variation under selling periods to decrease the uncertainty of market price information for the farmers. An operational model for planning the harvest and sale under a discrete scenario was then established based on the real farming scenario. The optimal selling decision can be made under the tradeoff between the preservation of the value of perishable crops and maximization of the revenue. Last, the parameters obtained from interviewing the farmers were applied to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis then is used to determine the parameters with significant impact on the revenue and to provide suggestions on selling polices. Based on the results, products market price, harvest volumes and unit production costs show higher impact on revenue. To increase revenue, farmers can control and cut down the unit production costs by forecasting the price trend from market information, increasing harvest volume by improving farming technology, and conducting cost management.
英文摘要 i
摘 要 viii
致 謝 ix
目 錄 x
圖目錄 xii
表目錄 xiii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究範圍與限制 4
第四節 研究流程 5
第五節 論文架構 6
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 農業蔬果設施 7
第二節 易腐性存貨 9
2.2.1 易腐性存貨的定義與分類 9
2.2.2 腐敗率相關文獻 10
2.2.3 腐敗性存貨近期文獻研究方向統整 12
第三節 適應性類神經模糊系統 14
2.3.1 模糊理論 15
2.3.2 類神經網路 15
2.3.3 類神經模糊系統 16
2.3.4 適應性類神經模糊系統 16
2.3.4.1 適應性類神經模糊推論系統架構 17
2.3.4.2 誤差倒傳遞學習演算法 18
第四節 小節 19
第三章 應用適應性類神經模糊系統於不連續生產販售模式 20
第一節 問題描述 20
第二節 模式架構與參數符號 25
第三節 不連續階段生產情境下之採收販賣模式建立 29
第四節 模式求解 31
第五節 小節 31
第四章 模式驗證與分析 32
第一節 情境描述 32
第二節 參數設定與求解過程 33
第三節 求解結果與敏感度分析 39
4.1 求解流程 39
4.2 求解結果與兩種情境之決策結果比較 40
4.3敏感度分析 42
第四節 小結 46
第五章 結論與建議 47
第一節 研究結論 47
第二節 未來研究方向 48
參考文獻 49


B. R. Sarker, A. M. M. Jamal, and S. J. Wang. (2000). Supply chain models for perishable products under inflation and permissible delay in payment. Computers and Operations Research, 27, 59–75.

Bakker, M., Riezebos, J., and Teunter, R.H. (2012). Review of inventory systems with
deterioration since 2001. European Journal of Operational Research, 221(2),
275-284.

C.-T. Chang. (2004). An EOQ model with deteriorating items under inflation when supplier credits linked to order quantity. International Journal of Production Economics, 88, 307–316.

C.-Y. Dye, H.-J. Chang, and J.-T. Teng. (2006). A deteriorating inventory model with time-varying demand and shortage-dependent partial backlogging. European Journal of Operational Research, 172, 417–429.

C. Zhang, G.-X. Dai, G.-H. Han, and M. Li. (2007). Study on optimal inventory model
for deteriorating items based on linear trade credit. Journal of Qingdao University
(Natural Science Edition), 20(3), 70–74.

C. Zhang, G.-X. Dai, G.-H. Han, and M. Li. (2007). Study on inventory model for deteriorating items based on trade credit and cash discount. Operations Research and Management Science, 16(6), 33–37,41.

Chakrabarty, T., Giri, B.C., and Chaudhuri, K.S. (1998). An EOQ model for items with Weibull distribution deterioration, shortages and trended demand: an extension of Philip’s model. Computers and Operations Research, 25(7-8), 649-657.

Choi, S. and Hwang, H. (1986). Optimization of production planning problem with continuously distributed time-lags. International Journal of Systems Science,
17(10), 1499-1508.

Covert, R.P., and Philip, G.C. (1973). An EOQ model for items with Weibull distribution. AIIE Transactions, 5(4), 323-326.

Ghare, P.M., and Schrader, G.F. (1963). A model for exponentially decaying inventory. Journal of Industrial Engineering, 14(5), 238-243.

Goyal, S.K., and Giri, B.C. (2001). Recent trend in modeling of deteriorating inventory. European Journal of Operational Research, 134(1), 1-16

H. Qiu and L. Liang. (2007). A two-warehouse inventory model with delay in payment. Systems Engineering, 25(2), 46–50.

Hui-Ling Yang. (2005). A comparison among various partial backlogging inventory
lot-size models for deteriorating items on the basis of maximum profit. International Journal of Production Economics, 96, 119–128.

K.-J. Chung and J.-J. Liao. (2006). The optimal ordering policy in a DCF analysis for deteriorating items when trade credit depends on the order quantity. International
Journal of Production Economics, 100, 116–130.

K.-N. Huang and J.-J. Liao. (2008). A simple method to locate the optimal solution for exponentially deteriorating items under trade credit financing. Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 56(4), 965–977.

J.-T. Teng, L.-Y. Ouyang, and L.-H. Chen. (2007). A comparison between two pricing and lot-sizing models with partial backlogging and deteriorated items. International Journal of Production Economics, 105, 190–203.

Jang, J. S. R., Sun, C. Mizutani, T. E.(1997). Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing. Prentice- Hall.

Nahmias, S. (1982). Perishable inventory theory: a review. Operations Research, 30(4), 680-708.

P. Chu and P. S. Chen. (2002). A note on inventory replenishment policies for deteriorating items in an exponentially declining market. Computers & Operations Research, 29, 1827–1842.

P. L. Abad. (2003). Optimal pricing and lot-sizing under conditions of perishability, finite
production and partial backordering and lost sale. European Journal of Operational
Research, 144, 677–685.

S. Khanra and K. S. Chaudhuri. (2003). A note on an order-level inventory model for a deteriorating item with time-dependent quadratic demand. Computers & Operations Research, 30, 1901–1916.

S. Papachristos and K. Skouri. (2000). An optimal replenishment policy for deteriorating items with time-varying demand and partial-exponential type-backlogging. Operations Researh Letters, 27, 175–184.

Tu, K. Y., Liao, C. S.(2007). Application of ANFIS for Frequency Syntonization Using GPS Carrier-Phase Measurements, Frequency Control Symposium, 2007 Joint with the 21st European Frequency and Time Forum, IEEE International, 933-936.

Thiesing, F. M., Vornberger, O(1997). Sales Forecasting Using Neural Networks, International Conference on Neural Networks, 4, 2125-2128.

Raafat, F. (1985). A production-inventory model for decaying raw materials and a
decaying single finished product system. International Journal of Systems
Science, 16(8), 1039-1044.

Raafat, F. (1991). Survey of literature on continuously deteriorating inventory models.
The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 42(1), 27-37.

Van Donselaar, K., van Woensel, T., Broekmeulen, R. and Fransoo, J. (2006). Inventory control of perishables in supermarkets. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 462-472.

Wee, H.M. (1993). Economic production lot-size model for deteriorating items with
partial back-ordering, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 24(3), 449–458.

Wu, M.M (1999). Linking Agricultural Production and Marketing Team to The Entrepreneurial Development of Small Farms in Taiwan: Achievement, Challenges and Prospects. Agl1cultural Marketing Review of the Department of Agricultural Marketing National Chung Hsing University Taiwan ROC, 85-96

羅強華(2005)。類神經網路-MATLAB的應用。高立圖書有限公司。

農委會(2013)。取自
http://www.coa.gov.tw/show_index.php
豐年社(2013)。取自
http://www.harvest.org.tw/

QRCODE
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top