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研究生:楊宜庭
研究生(外文):Yi-Ting Yang
論文名稱:西行颱風伴隨西南氣流之環境場特徵分析
指導教授:劉振榮劉振榮引用關係
指導教授(外文):Gin-Rong Liu
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:大氣物理研究所
學門:自然科學學門
學類:大氣科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:105
中文關鍵詞:颱風西南氣流熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢南海海域
外文關鍵詞:TyphoonSouthwesterly FlowRainfall potentialSouth China Sea
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夏季時,西行台灣北部的颱風偶會受到西南氣流影響,將南海海域暖濕水氣帶至台灣西南方。由於台灣山脈高聳,水氣經地形抬升作用凝結成雨,導致西行颱風離開時於中南部地區造成嚴重豪雨災情。在颱風監測上,中央氣象局將颱風歸納 9 種主要行進路徑,其中 2 號路徑颱風最容易引入西南氣流,進而在台灣南部輻合水氣而產生豪大雨;另外 1 號路徑行進路線颱風雖然沒有登陸台灣,但與 2 號路徑相似,其外圍環流可能受南海地區季風作用,而有機會發展成西南氣流共伴現象。
本篇研究探討西行颱風與環境場相互作用的現象。主要利用 NCEP FNL 再分析資料和 GSMaP 資料分析 2000 至 2014 年間行進於 1 號與 2 號路徑共 13 個颱風個案。分析結果顯示:西南氣流共伴的西行颱風登陸台灣東海岸前,南海海域的風場大多是西風或西南風,且太平洋高壓較為西伸,於颱風東側呈東北─西南走向的等重力位高度線,西行颱風經過常會加強南海海域的西南風,若此時水氣較高,則隨西南氣流北上至台灣西南方輻合,此為颱風與南海季風交互作用形成降雨的機制。
本研究亦測試改良式颱風降雨潛勢預報模式 (I-TRaP) 對前述 13 個 1、2 號路徑颱風個案預報降雨分布的潛力,結果發現:在台灣西南部之降雨有低估的情形,此因I-TRaP只計算颱風在台灣區域累計的降雨量,並未考慮季風與環境場的加乘影響。所以在預報降雨潛勢時,需再考慮環境場及太平洋高壓的西伸情形,並將南海海域的風向、風速及水氣納入計算。

Typhoons are one of the most disastrous weather systems and frequently bring strong winds and heavy rains to Taiwan in summers. And some typhoons, which tracks in Type-I and Type-II track categories, passed westward around northern Taiwan region often cause the southwesterly flow from South China Sea (SCS) into Taiwan. Then the water vapor through the terrain uplifting, causing heavy rains and severe disasters in central and southern Taiwan regions.
In this study, the aim is to investigate the southwesterly flow effect on typhoon rainfall patterns. Mainly the NCEP FNL Analysis data and GSMAP data are used to analyze Type-I and Type-II typhoon cases during 2000-2014. The result shows that the SCS monsoons modulate the relationship with typhoons and southwesterly flow. For instance, the active monsoons provide evidently favorable conditions for prolonging heavy rainfall while the typhoons passed. There are compact isobaric lines extending from the east of typhoon centers toward the southwest when the typhoons to the northward, and enhance the southwesterly flow in SCS. Under such environmental conditions, rich moisture is thus transported northeastward by the strong southwesterly flow, resulting in heavy rainfall in southern and central Taiwan.
The study also delineates the rainfall distributions with the Improved TRaP (I-TRaP) when Type-I and Type-II typhoons around Taiwan. By comparing with gauge rainfall, the patterns show that I-TRaP underestimates rainfall amounts in southern and central Taiwan. Therefore, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) models must further consider that the westward extension of the Pacific high pressures, wind fields, and water vapors in South China Sea to obtain more accurate rainfall potential over Taiwan.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 IV
表目錄 VI
圖目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1前言 1
1.2文獻回顧 2
1.3研究動機與目的 5
第二章 資料蒐集與處理 7
2.1 SSM/I與SSMIS微波資料 7
2.2 NCEP Final Analyses再分析資料 9
2.3 全球衛星降雨資料 (GSMaP) 9
2.4 地球同步衛星紅外線資料 10
2.5 中央氣象局自動測站雨量資料 11
2.6 JTWC最佳路徑資料 13
第三章 研究方法 14
3.1 西南氣流個案篩選方法 14
3.2 環境參數處理 14
3.2.1 SSM/I與SSMIS水氣含量反演式 15
3.2.2 風輻散場 15
3.2.3重力位高度 16
3.2.4相對濕度 16
3.2.5 地表可用位能 17
3.2.6 850 hPa 水氣通量 17
3.2.7 可降水量 18
3.2.8 西南氣流差異分析 18
3.3 西南部豪大雨個案篩選方法 19
3.4 I-TRaP的理論基礎 19
3.4.1 降雨反演式 19
3.4.2熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢(Tropical Rainfall Potential,TRaP) 21
3.4.3 I-TRaP (Improve Tropical Rainfall Potential) 21
第四章 分析結果與討論 24
4.1 西南氣流分類結果 24
4.2 環境特徵差異分析 24
4.2.1氣流線與風場輻散的差異 24
4.2.2重力位高度場的差異 26
4.2.3相對濕度場的差異 27
4.2.4對流可用位能場的差異 28
4.2.5整體比較結果 29
4.3 西南部豪大雨個案篩選結果 29
4.4 比較西南氣流伴隨豪雨之差異 31
4.5 特殊案例分析 32
4.6 I-TRaP對西南氣流颱風個案降雨驗證結果 35
第五章 結論與未來展望 37
參考文獻 39
參考網站 44
附表 45
附圖 52

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