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研究生:劉祐毓
研究生(外文):You-yu Liu
論文名稱:LED球泡燈願付價格研究分析
論文名稱(外文):Willing To Pay (WTP) Analysis To Residential LED Light Bulb
指導教授:劉錦龍劉錦龍引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中央大學
系所名稱:產業經濟研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:82
中文關鍵詞:LED 球泡燈願付價格
外文關鍵詞:WTP to LED light bulbTobit modelProbit modelHeckman model
相關次數:
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中文摘要
各國政府為降低溫室氣體排放及節省能源消費,紛紛制定白熾燈泡禁用政策並鼓勵民眾多使用能源效率較高的燈具,LED燈因據有高發光效率,低耗電量的特性,可以減低民眾對能源消耗的需求,且LED燈不像省電燈泡或螢光燈管內含汞,會對環境的造成污染,在政府的鼓勵政策及廠商大量的投入,LED球泡燈售價已大幅度下降但市場滲透率並未如預期。故本研究採用問卷調查方式收集相關資料做統計分析及回歸分析。回歸分析部分以OLS模型及Tobit模型對於假設問題一,分析消費者對於目前發光亮度僅可以取代15W省電燈泡的11W LED球泡燈的願付價格分析研究;再以Probit 模型對假設問題二,分析消費者對於發光亮度進步而可以取代24W省電燈泡的11W LED球泡燈是否願意增加額外購買成本,最後以OLS模型及Heckman模型對假設問題二,分析消費者對於發光亮度進步的11W LED球泡燈的願付價格。
研究結果發現消費者對LED的認知度無論是LED的功能性如發光亮度、壽命及演色性等,其同意程度越高,願付價格會越高;對LED球泡燈產品的省能源效應,降低環保效應認同度越高,願付價格會越高。其他如消費者的居住條件,像是消費者的實際居住面積愈大,消費者的家庭每月總收入越高,消費者夏季電費越高,對高節能LED球泡燈的願付價格越高。除了對LED燈的認知程度及消費者的居住條件外,本研究也發現消費者對LED燈的使用滿意度及產品能源效率愈高,其願付價格也會愈高。


In order to reduce greenhouse gas emission and save energy consumption, worldwide governments prefer to draft a Law or Policy to ban to use incandescent and encourage consumers adopting energy-efficiency lighting. LED light bulb have benefits of higher light output efficiency and lower energy consumption than incandescent, do not contain mercury inside as well and can reduce pollution to environment, but current penetration rate is still low. So this research is using online survey in Taiwan and examines what factors does affect consumer’s WTP for LED bulb. Proceed data statistics and analysis, then proceed regression with OLS model and Tobit Model for first hypothetic question to analyze and predict consumer’s WTP(wtp11) for current 11W LED bulb and it’s related factors. Then proceed regression with Probit model for second hypothetic question to analyze which factors will impact consumer’s willing to pay extra cost on those 11W LED bulb which light output improved and being equivalent to 24W CFLs. Finally, proceed regression with OLS model and Heckman model for second hypothetic question to analyze and predict consumer’s WTP(wtp22).

The result in this research is the higher perception ( Brightness, CRI, Product Life, Energy efficiency …..) of LED light bulb, consumers in Taiwan will have higher willing to pay to LED bulb. Larger living space, higher total family income and higher electricity consumption in summer to consumers, will have higher willing to pay to LED bulb. And if the LED bulb is higher energy-efficiency or higher light output or consumers feel more satisfaction on LED bulb, consumers will have higher WTP to LED bulb.

中文摘要 --------------------------------------------------Ⅰ
英文摘要 --------------------------------------------------Ⅱ
致謝 ---------------------------------------------------Ⅲ
目錄 ---------------------------------------------------Ⅳ
圖目錄 -------------------------------------------------- Ⅵ
表目錄 -------------------------------------------------- Ⅶ
ㄧ、 緒論----------------------------------------------- 01
1.1 研究動機---------------------------------------------- 01
1.2 研究目的---------------------------------------------- 02
1.3 研究範圍---------------------------------------------- 03
1.4 研究方法---------------------------------------------- 03
1.5 研究架構---------------------------------------------- 04
二、 LED球泡燈產業發展概況-------------------------------- 05
2.1 LED產業回顧-----------------------------------------05
2.2 LED球泡燈產業供應鏈----------------------------------06
2.3 LED球泡燈與其他替代性產品優缺點比較--------------------07
2.4 全球LED球泡燈發展現況與未來預測----------------------- 09
三、 文獻回顧-------------------------------------------- 14
四、 問卷設計說明與資料分析-------------------------------- 18
4.1 問卷設計-------------------------------------------- 18
4.2 資料統計分析-----------------------------------------20
五、 實證模型-------------------------------------------- 28
5.1 實證模型設定----------------------------------------- 28
5.2 估算方法與預測值--------------------------------------29
5.3 變數建構及基本統計量---------------------------------- 30
六、 實證結果與分析----------------------------------------36
6.1 OLS 及Tobit 模型下實證結果-------------------------------36
6.2 Tobit模型分析之邊際效果--------------------------------- 40
6.3 11W LED 球泡燈願付價格預測值---------------------------- 45
6.4 Probit model實證結果------------------------------------46
6.5 OLS及Heckman模型實證結果------------------------------ 48
6.6發光效率提升後11W LED 球泡燈願付價格預測值-----------------51
七、 結論-------------------------------------------------52
7.1 結論與建議---------------------------------------------52
7.2 研究限制與未來方向--------------------------------------55
參考文獻 ---------------------------------------------------56
附錄ㄧ 問卷調查基本資料統計------------------------------------59
附錄二 問卷調查表-------------------------------------------- 64

參 考 文 獻
ㄧ、中文部分
(1) Carina Ying, 2014『2015年LED 產業十大發展趨勢』,LEDinside。
(2) 永豐投顧,2015『2015LED產業展望---產業整併,大者恆強』,經濟研究報告。
(3) 李春旺、曾瑜珊,2012,『白熾燈泡與LED球泡燈節能差異性之研究』,高雄師大大學報。
(4) 經濟部能源局,『585白熾燈泡汰換計劃』。
(5) 能源管理法第14條,『安定器內藏式螢光燈泡能源效率分級基準』。
(6) 楊家豪,2014,『LED照明器具製造業基本資料』,台灣經濟研究院產經資料庫
(7) 楊子菱,2015『台灣LED產業發展研究報告』,工業技術研究院。
(8) 鄧謦瀚、葛復光、劉家豪、陳中舜,2013,『照明經濟研析』,核能所-能源經濟及策略研究中心。
(9) LEDinside, 產業資訊網,http://www.ledinside.com.tw

二、英文部分
(1) Allcott, Hunt and Nathan Wozny, 2012, “Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy and Enegry Paradox” Review of Econmics and statistics forthcoming.
(2) Allcott, Hunt , Dmitry Taubinsky, 2013, “The Lightbulb Paradox: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments.” NBER Working Paper No.19713.
(3) Allcott, Hunt, 2014, “Paternalism and Energy Efficiency: An Overview” In Preparation for Annual Review of Econimics, Vol. 8
(4) Anderson, Dennis and John Claxton, 1982, “Barries to Consumer Choice of Energy Efficient Products”, Journal of Consumer Research, Vol.9, No.2, Page163-170.
(5) Apte, Joshua, Merrian Fuller, Anand Gopal, Katie Lindgren, 2007, “Developing the Means for the Use of Modern Lighting: How can WLED technology bring quality, affordable lighting to India’s poor”, University of California.
(6) Bladh, M. and Krantz H., 2008, “Toward a bright future? Household use of electric light : a micro level study.”, Energy policy, 36, 3521-3530.
(7) Celia, Stall-Meadows, Paulette R. Hebert, 2011, “ The sustainable consumer: an in situ study of residual lighting alternative as influenced by infield education.” International Journal of consumer studies, (35), 164-170
(8) Energy star, http://www.energystar.gov
(9) Hicks, Andrea L., Tomas L. Theis, 2014, “Residential energy-efficient lighting adoption survey”, Energy Efficiency 7: 323-333

(10) Hsu, Ching-wen, Pao-Long Chang, Yen-Hsun Shin, 2012 “ Evaluating Government Policy on Accelerating the Use of Lighting Products. Using System Dynamics Modeling in Taiwan.” Proceeding of PICMET’12: Technology Management for Emerging Technology.
(11) Haitz, Roland, Fred Kish, Jeff Tsao, Jeff Nelson, 2000 “ The Case For A National Research Program on Semiconductor Lighting” SANDIA REPORT, SAND 2000-1612
(12) Reynold, Travis, Jane Kolodinsky, Byron Murray, 2012, “Consumer preference and willingness to pay for compact fluorescent lighting: Policy implications for energy efficiency promotion in Saint Lucia” Energy Policy.
(13) Strategies Unlimited, 2014,“The Worldwide market for Lamp---Market Review and Forecast 2014”
(14) United States Department of Energy, 2013, “ Life-cycle Assessment of Energy and Environment Impacts of LED lighting”
(15) Ward, David O., Christopher D. Clark, Kimberly L. Jensen, Steven, T. Yen, Clifford S. Russel, 2011, “ Factors influencing willing-to-pay for the Energy Star label”, Energy Policy
(16) Yole Development, 2011, “ A comprehensive survey of LED packaging covering main technologies and market metrics”
(17) Zografakis, Nikolaos, Konstantinos Karyotakis and Konstantinos P. Tsagavakis, 2012, “ Implementation conditions for energy saving technologies and practices in office building: Part 1. Lighting ” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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