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研究生:劉俊宏
論文名稱:夏季太平洋-日本型態準週期波動對台灣附近環流的影響
論文名稱(外文):Quasi-periodic wave patterns of summer time Pacific-Japan pattern over East Asia
指導教授:柯亙重柯亙重引用關係
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立高雄師範大學
系所名稱:地理學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:地理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:76
中文關鍵詞:PJ指數季內震盪降雨量
外文關鍵詞:PJ patternISOrainfall
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本文運用美國國家環境預報中心的重分析第一版資料庫(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP Reanalysis 1)中的850百帕高度場資料計算出1979~2009年7~10月高度場變異數圖與平均數圖,從圖中選定兩個經緯度點,並參考前人提出的PJ型態(Pacific-Japan pattern)的指數來定義本研究的PJ指數。透過資料的波譜分析圖得知資料週期為5~16天,並將資料透過合成分析繪製成結果,研究發現PJ型態的兩種波動類型:其一為PJI正型,自東經140度由東沿著北緯20度向西朝南海移動;其二為PJI負型,自東經150度向西北移動,至日本南方海面上再轉向東北朝日本前進。
PJI正型的低壓距平由東向西移動時,使台灣附近的風向轉變為東南風,受到台灣中央山脈地形影響,台灣東半部地區成為迎風面且降雨量較多;PJI負型的低壓距平自西北太平洋東方向西北移動,至日本南方海面才轉向東北,再轉向之前最接近台灣,受到低壓距平環流影響,台灣附近風向轉變為西北風,受到台灣的雪山山脈與丘陵地形影響,台灣西北部地區為迎風面且降雨量較多。
本研究亦進一步探究PJ型態與季內震盪(使用30~80天週期已濾波之東西向的風資料)之間的關係,發現在PJI正型東風相位時,季內震盪高壓可能會抑制低壓距平增強,在西風相位的季內震盪低壓,則可能有利於低壓距平增強;但在PJI負型東風相位,季內震盪高壓不利低壓距平,使其移動路徑較偏東並快速轉向往日本東方,但在西風相位的季內震盪低壓則牽制低壓距平,使其路徑偏西並轉向南韓與日本間前進。

This study uses the Pacific-Japan (PJ) index that is modified from previous studies and modifies it. I find fluctuation of the PJ index from averaged moving spectrum and its periodicity of 5-16 days. In the composite analysis, there are two wave pattern of PJ index. In the PJ positive phase, the wave pattern propagates northwestward from the western North Pacific to the northern South China Sea and the low-pressure anomaly is forced to move westward because of high-pressure anomaly over southern Japan. In the PJ positive phase, most tropical cyclones move along with the low-pressure anomaly and propagate westward to the northern South China Sea and southern China. The southeasterlies of tropical cyclones cause heavy rainfall in eastern Taiwan. Another is the PJ negative phase, the wave pattern propagates northwestward and turns toward higher latitudes from the area south of Japan. In the PJ negative phase, most tropical cyclones follow a recurving propagation path and move toward higher latitudes. When the tropical cyclones change propagation route, it causes rainfall in northwestern Taiwan.
This study also investigates further the relationship of the PJ pattern (the 5-16 days wave patterns) and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The PJ patterns are separated into ISO westerly and easterly phases. In the composite results, I find the high pressure of ISO may suppress the low-pressure anomaly in the PJ positive phase, and the low pressure of ISO may make low-pressure anomaly stronger in the PJ positive phase. In the westerly and easterly PJ positive phase, the tropical cyclones cause heavy rainfall in eastern Taiwan, but, the rainfall pattern induced by the easterly PJ positive phase and tropical cyclones exhibit heavier rainfall than that in the westerly PJ positive phase. Another wave pattern, in the easterly PJ negative phase, the high pressure of ISO may suppress and make low-pressure anomaly move faster and toward east of Japan. In the westerly PJ negative phase, the low pressure of ISO may affect the low-pressure anomaly to move slowly and more west, then the low-pressure anomaly moves to South Korea and west of Japan. In the westerly and easterly PJ negative phase, the tropical cyclones cause rainfall in northwestern Taiwan, but, during the westerly PJ negative phase, the stronger southeasterly mean flow steered the wave pattern and tropical cyclones farther west and closer to Taiwan, resulting in heavier rainfall.

目 錄
中文摘要...........................................................................................................i
英文摘要..........................................................................................................ii
第一章 前言...................................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機..................................................................................1
第二節 研究範圍..................................................................................2
第三節 文獻回顧..................................................................................2
第四節 研究目的..................................................................................4
第二章 研究方法...........................................................................................6
第一節 資料來源..................................................................................6
第二節 個案挑選與颱風篩選流程....................................................7
第三節 合成分析法..............................................................................8
第三章 合成分析........................................................................................12
第一節 個案統計................................................................................12
第二節 合成分析................................................................................12
第三節 緯向與經向的剖面分析......................................................16
第四節 小結........................................................................................18
第四章 PJ型態颱風與降雨型態 .............................................................27
第一節 颱風的路徑與分布型態......................................................27
第二節 PJ型態的颱風對台灣降雨分布影響.................................29
第三節 小結........................................................................................29
第五章 PJ型態與季內震盪的關係...........................................................35
第一節 相關文獻................................................................................35
第二節 季內震盪個案挑選...............................................................35
第三節 合成分析................................................................................36
第四節 颱風與降雨型態...................................................................43
第五節 小結........................................................................................48
第六章 結論.................................................................................................68
參考文獻..........................................................................................................76

圖 次
圖2-1 1979~2009年7~10月850百帕高度場變異數圖.....................9
圖2-2 1979~2009年7~10月850百帕高度場平均數圖.....................9
圖2-3 1979~2009年5~10月波譜訊號圖..........................................10
圖2-4 1991年時間序列圖.....................................................................10
圖2-5 颱風挑選圖..................................................................................11
圖2-6 個案選取流程圖..........................................................................11
圖3-1 850百帕高度場OLR平均背景場..............................................20
圖3-2 850百帕平均背景場緯向風剖面...............................................20
圖3-3 PJI正型個案850百帕已濾波高度場合成分析圖.....................21
圖3-4 PJI負型個案850百帕已濾波高度場合成分析圖….................22
圖3-5 PJI正型個案850百帕未濾波高度場合成分析圖.....................23
圖3-6 PJI負型個案850百帕未濾波高度場合成分析圖.....................24
圖3-7 PJI正型850百帕已濾波高度場20N。緯向剖面........................25
圖3-8 PJI負型850百帕已濾波高度場130E。緯向剖面.......................26
圖4-1 850百帕已濾波高度場與相對應颱風路徑圖………...............31
圖4-2 PJI正型個案850百帕已濾波高度場與相對應颱風位置圖.....32
圖4-3 PJI負型個案850百帕已濾波高度場與相對應颱風位置圖.....33
圖4-4 850百帕高度場與TCCIP降雨資料合成圖...............................34
圖5-1 東西向的風之已濾波資料的變異數比例分布圖......................50
圖5-2 PJ型態與季內震盪之時間序列圖.............................................50
圖5-3 平均背景場..................................................................................51
圖5-4 PJI正型東風相位(與季內震盪疊圖)........................................52
圖5-5 PJI正型西風相位(與季內震盪疊圖)........................................53
圖5-6 PJI負型東風相位(與季內震盪疊圖)........................................54
圖5-7 PJI負型西風相位(與季內震盪疊圖)........................................55
圖5-8 PJI正型東風相位(與未濾波高度場資料疊圖)........................56
圖5-9 PJI正型西風相位(與未濾波高度場資料疊圖)........................57
圖5-10 PJI負型東風相位(與未濾波高度場資料疊圖)......................58
圖5-11 PJI負型西風相位(與未濾波高度場資料疊圖)......................59
圖5-12 PJI正型東風相位850百帕已濾波高度場20N。緯向剖面........60
圖5-13 PJI正型西風相位850百帕已濾波高度場20N。緯向剖面........61
圖5-14 PJI負型東風相位850百帕已濾波高度場130E。經向剖面......62
圖5-15 PJI負型西風相位850百帕已濾波高度場130E。經向剖面......63
圖5-16 850百帕已濾波高度場與個案時間相對應颱風路徑圖.........64
圖5-17 PJI正型850百帕高度場與TCCIP降雨資料合成圖...............65
圖5-18 PJI負型850百帕高度場與TCCIP降雨資料合成圖...............66
圖5-19 850百帕已濾波高度場高、低壓距平疊圖...............................67
圖6-1 PJ型態與TCCIP雨量分布示意圖.............................................74
圖6-2 與季內震盪有關的PJ型態東、西風相位示意圖.......................75

壹、中文部分
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貳、英文部分
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Harr, P. A. and Elsberry, R. L. (1991) Tropical cyclone track characteristics as a function of large-scale circulation anomalies, Monthly Weather Review, 119:1448–1468.
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Kosaka, Y., and Nakamura, H. (2006) Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,132:2009-2030.
Ko, K.C.and Hsu,H. H. (2009) ISO Modulation on the Sub-monthly Wave Pattern and the Recurving Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific, Journal of Climate, 22:582-599.
Ko, K. C. and Tzeng, Y. S. (2013) Characteristics of summertime circulation patterns for Southern Taiwan’s monsoon rainfall from July to September, Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,24:107-119.
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Wakabayashi, S. and Kawamura, R. (2004) Extraction of major teleconnection patterns possibly associated with the anomalous summer climate in Japan, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,82:1577-1588.
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