臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文的研究對象為2003年至2009年16個國家中50家上市銀行，採用追蹤資料(Panel Data)模型，探討銀行業執行企業社會責任程度對分析師預測是否具有影響。再者，又將樣本期間區分為金融危機前與金融危機時，探討兩者的關係變化。最後，再進一步探討銀行業進行CSR何種構面的活動，會對分析師預測有正面提升的效果。
「分析師預測」資料來自I/B/E/S，主要由兩個變數衡量，分別為目標股價與盈餘預測；「企業社會責任」資料來自EIRIS資料庫，CSR績效由五個指標衡量，分別為「CSR總指數」、「環境保護」、「社會文化」、「公司治理」、「其他」構面指數。
實證結果發現，銀行業執行企業社會責任，其中以CSR之「社會文化」及「其他」構面之影響對分析師股價預測更為正向顯著；然而對於分析師預測盈餘時，沒有顯著的影響力。此外，在金融危機發生前，以銀行業加強執行「公司治理」之CSR活動，對分析師預測盈餘時呈現顯著正面提升效果；對於股價預測並無顯著的關係。然而在金融危機時期，銀行業執行企業社會責任，不論加強進行何種構面，對分析師預測股價時影響更為顯著，但對於盈餘預測不具有顯著影響力。

This study investigates the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and analyst forecast using Panel Data Model. We explore this relationship over (2003–2009) and for two sub-periods (pre-crisis: 2003–2006; and over the crisis period: 2007–2009). Furthermore, we explore what kind of facets in CSR activities in the banking industry, analyst forecasts will have a positive effect. The sample consists of 50 listed banks in 16 countries. "Analyst forecasts” sample from I/B/E/S database consists of two main variables, stock target price and earnings forecast. "Corporate social responsibility" sample from the Ethical Investment Research Service (EIRIS) database, and CSR performance measure in five variables, namely "CSR_Index", "CSR_E", "CSR_S", "CSR_G", "CSR_O".
Empirical results show that when banks do more about "social influence" and "others" facets of CSR activities, the effect of stock price forecasting will be more significant. However, there is no significant influence between CSR and earnings forecast. In addition, in the pre-crisis period, when banks enhance the implementation of CSR activities about the facets of "corporate governance", the effect of showing significant positive influence when analysts predict earnings. However, there is no significant relationship between CSR and stock price forecasting. During the financial crisis, when banks do more corporate social responsibility activities , regardless of what kind of facets, the effect of showing significant influence when analysts predict stock price. However, there is no significant influence between CSR and earnings forecast.

謝 詞 I
中文論文摘要 II
英文論文摘要 III
目 錄 IV
表 次 VI
圖 次 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究流程與架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 銀行業的企業社會責任 5
第二節 企業社會責任與財務績效之相關文獻 11
第三節 企業社會責任與分析師預測之相關文獻 16
第三章 研究方法 17
第一節 實證模型與變數定義 17
第二節 模型估計方法 22
第三節 樣本描述與資料來源 24
第四節 變數說明 26
第四章 實證結果 27
第一節 變數之敘述統計分析 27
第二節 企業社會責任與分析師預測之實證結果 32
第三節 金融危機前與金融危機時，銀行業進行企業社會責任程度與分析師預測之實證結果 36
第四節 穩健性測試 42
第五章 結論 57
參考文獻 61
附錄一 模型檢定流程 68
著作權聲明 69

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三、網路參考資料
中國信託慈善基金會：https://www.ctbcfoundation.org/web/about/Establish.aspx
中華民國企業永續發展協會：http://www.bcsd.org.tw/domain_node/domainnode/23
世界企業永續發展協會網站：http://www.wbcsd.org/home.aspx
玉山銀行CSR：https://www.esunfhc.com.tw/volunteer/index.html
花旗銀行CSR：http://www.citibank.com.tw/global_docs/chi/CSR/index.htm
國泰金控： https://www.cathayholdings.com/holdings/web/CSR/CSR.aspx
富邦金控CSR：https://www.fubon.com/financial/citizenship/index.html