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研究生:潘毅斌
研究生(外文):YiBin Pan
論文名稱:2010-2015年中國城鎮住房價格的決定因素
論文名稱(外文):The Determinants of Urban Housing Prices in China (2010-2015)
指導教授:周治邦周治邦引用關係
指導教授(外文):Jyh-Bang Jou
口試委員:彭建文鄧志松
口試委員(外文):Chien-Wen PengChih-Sung Teng
口試日期:2015-06-22
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:國家發展研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:綜合社會及行為科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:135
中文關鍵詞:住房特徵價格城鎮體系調控政策限購限貸令分異性
外文關鍵詞:Housing Hedonic PriceUrban SystemControl Policies (Regulation Policies)Purchaseand Credit LimitationHeterogeneity
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:201
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
本文團繞「中國城鎮住房價格的決定因素」,提出三個問題:中國住房體系及調控政策是什麼?中國城市在地理、人口、經濟,以及行政級別分異下,城市住房價格的決定因素是什麼? 2010-2015年這五年的中央政府的房價調控政策,對於住房價格是否構成影響(衝擊)?為回答這些問題,本文從政策整理、模型建構及實證分析三個方面進行解答。
政策整理方面,本文整理了中國住房體系及調控政策,並結合南開大學和天津社科院2013年流動人口管理項目資料,得出目前中國的保障房體系出現快速成長、機制複雜、管理缺失等問題,需加強統計資料收集,盡快推進廉租房和公租房並軌,以及取消戶籍制度限制。同時發現中央政府調控住房依對象呈現分異性:對地方政府偏好使用土地管制及保障房供給要求;而對個人偏好使用與貨幣、稅收、戶籍管制之措施;對企業則偏好金融管制,但調控力相對有限。本文亦討論中國住房市場結構中因城市行政級別體系和落戶政策之分異性形成的「政府-企業」聯合賣方市場。
模型建構方面,本文設定了一個由企業和政府作為聯合賣方的住房市場,發現: (1)若個人購自住房,則首付金額增加、首付比例提升、住房貸款利率提高皆會降低買房人之購房動機;若個人投資買房,則類同個人購自住房的情形下,亦會受城市特徵價格,以及特徵價格波動率影響。而其他資本市場收益率的提高對於投資買房有抑制作用。(2)城市住房價格波動指數和政府預算內財政收入來源、城市特徵價格、土地剩餘量,以及企業操作成本呈現負相關,同時與個人首付額度、每月還貸款金額、以及住房市場景氣度呈現正相關。
實證分析方面,本文用CREIS 2010年橫截面資料分析中國96個城市住房特徵價格的區域差異性,采用新區域切分方法,對區域中心城市/非區域中心城市、東南沿海城市/非東南沿海城市、北部沿海/南部內陸城市和非北部沿海/南部內陸城市,以及北方內陸城市/非北方內陸城市作比較,得出城鎮人均所得、教育因素、城區建成率可以較好解釋中國城市住房價格分異性。並用時間序列資料采VAR方法分析了在考慮調整存款準備金率及貸款利率的條件下,中央政府限購限貸政策對抽樣5城市住房價格干預的有效性,得出既有的貨幣及限購限貸政策對住房價格的衝擊有限,中央政府很難用統一的調控方法調節全國住房市場。


This paper investiges the determinants of Chinese urban housing prices, which is divided into three subproblems: What is the Chinese housing systems and the regulation policies for Chinese real estate market? Due to geographical, demographic and Adminstrational Ranking heterogeneities, what are the determinants of urban housing prices? Do the control policies from central governments have the effects of stabilize Chinese housing prices During the five years between 2010 and 2015? This paper answers these questions from three perspectives: Policies reviews, modeling procedures and empirical analysis.
First we review the Chinese housing systems and the regulation policies for Chinese real estate market, and analysis the empirical data of Floating Population Survey by Nankai University and Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences (2013). We find that the Chinese housing systems exist problems such as rapid growth, complex mechanism, and management defect, etc. The solutions for these problems mentioned above are collecting more detail data, accomplishing the low-rent housing and public housing combination, and cancelling the limit of Hukou system. We also find the differences of central government housing price control methods for different subjects: central government may prefer to use land control and public housing construction requirements for local governments; use monetary and tax policies and hukou restrictions for individuals; use financial limit for firms which is relatively limited effects. Then we discuss the mechanism of local government-firm cooperative markets due to the difference of the urban administrative level system and settle down policies.
Second we set a model which is a local government-firm cooperative market, and we discover that if individuals perchase houses for principle residence, then the rise of down payment, the ratio of down payment, and mortgage rate will decline individuals’ incentives to perchase houses; if individuals perchase for investment purposes, then the yields of other capital markets will inhibit the perchasing incentives in addition to the effects which are the same as for principle residence. And the inflation of housing hedonic prices indcies is negative related to city budget revenue, city hedonic price and city available land area, and positive related to individual down payment, monthly mortgage payment, and the trading condition of housing market.
Finally we use CREIS 2010 data to analysis the regional heterogeneities of housing prices of 96 cities in China, which we develop a new method deviding the mainland China area into regional cities/non-regional cities according to China urban systems, and 3 regions according to geographical, demographic and economic heterogeneities: South-East-Coastal (S.E.C.) Cities/Non-S.E.C. Cities; North-Coatsal & South-Inland (N.C.&S.I.) Cities/Non-N.C.&S.I. Cities, and North-Inland-Cities (N.I.C.)/ Non-N.I.C. Cities. We made comparative analysis and find that City residents’ income, educational factors, constructal rate for downtown area can better explain the heterogeneities of Chinese cities housing prices. We also use VAR methods and time series data of 5 sampled cities to analysis the housing prices interventive effectiveness of central governments, considering the deposit-reserve ratio (RRR), mortagage rates, and the purchase and credit limitation. Then we get the conclusion that the exist monetary policies and the purchase and credit limitation have little impacts on housing prices, and it’s hard for central government to use a universal control strategy to adjust the nationwide housing market.

目錄
第一章 緒 論 1
第一節 問題的提出 1
一、中國住房體系及調控政策 1
二、中國城鎮住房價格的空間分異性 2
三、中國城市住房價格的時間分異性 2
第二節 全文架構 3
第二章 文獻綜述、概念界定和計量方法 5
第一節 文獻綜述 5
一、住房價格研究的歷史脈絡 5
二、特徵因素歸納 11
第二節 概念界定及操作化 12
一、住房價格 12
二、中國城鎮體系 16
三、城市特徵 18
第三節 計量方法 20
一、特徵定價法 20
二、向量自迴歸模型(VAR) 20
第三章 中國大陸住房體系及調控政策 22
第一節 中國的保障房體系 22
一、經濟適用房 22
二、公共租賃住房 24
三、中國住障房體系之特徵 25
四、實證:外來務工人員居住現狀與保障房機制設計 26
第二節 中國住房調控政策 29
一、行政干預法令與土地管制 29
二、稅費政策 31
三、貨幣信貸政策和限購限貸令 31
四、小結 33
第三節 中國大陸住房市場分異性討論 34
一、中國大陸住房市場結構 34
二、中國住房市場分異性:城鎮行政級別體系與個人落戶政策 35
第四章 研究設計 37
第一節 城市住房特徵價格設定 37
第二節 模型設定 38
一、模型基本架構 38
二、家戶住宅效用函數 39
三、政府效用函數 40
四、企業效用函數 41
第三節 問題的解答 41
一、個體購房所受變數之影響 41
二、地方政府和企業聯合定價機制 44
第四節 結論 45
第五章 實證分析 46
第一節 中國城市住房價格區域差異分析(2010) 46
一、研究對象與統計資料選取 46
二、切分變數之設定 47
三、分析過程及結果 49
第二節 中央政府住房調控政策有效性分析 53
一、城市的選取 53
二、變數選取及模型建立 54
三、模型的建立 54
四、實證分析結果 55
第三節 實證分析結論 58
一、中國大陸城市住房市場之空間分異性 58
二、中國大陸城市住房市場之時間分異性 58
三、中國城市住房價格實證分析總結 59
第六章 總結 60
第一節 全文總結 60
第二節 本文的研究缺陷和展望 63
一、本文研究缺陷 63
二、本文研究的擴展和展望 65
參考文獻 66
英文文獻 66
中文文獻 72
附 錄 73
圖附錄
Figure 2-1 東亞20個城區住房價格指數一覽表(2014)—房價所得比(%)、城區/城郊購租比(%)…………………………………………………………………………………………………74
Figure 2-2 東亞20個城區住房價格指數一覽表(2014)——房貸與所得倍數、城區/城郊租金收益率(%)……………………………………………………………………………………………75
Figure 2-3 中國全國保障性住房建設與商品房建設對比圖(1999-2014) ………………………76
Figure 3-1中國央行人民幣存款準備金率歷次調整表(1999-2014)…………………………77
Figure 3-2中國央行人民幣貸款利率歷次調整表(2003.9-2015.6)………………………………77
Figure 3-3 中國前百名房地產企業銷售額及開發面積比較……………………………………78
Figure 3-4 2010年中國前百名城市人口和經濟規模差異性……………………………………78
Figure 5-1 中國大陸地區人口密度分布圖(2010) ………………………………………………79
Figure 5-2 青島市住房價格政策衝擊一覽表(2010.6-2015.5) …………………………………80
Figure 5-3 北京市住房價格政策衝擊一覽表(2010.6-2015.5) …………………………………80
Figure 5-4 徐州住房價格政策衝擊一覽表(2010.6-2015.5) ……………………………………81
Figure 5-5 西安住房價格政策衝擊一覽表(2010.6-2015.5) ……………………………………82
Figure 5-6 溫州住房價格政策衝擊一覽表(2010.6-2015.5) ……………………………………82

表附錄
Table 2-1 住房價格研究領域統計結果(SSCI,1956-2015) ……………………………………83
Table 2-2 住房價格研究面向和影響變數一覽表(CNKI) ………………………………………83
Table 2-3 特徵變數影響方向和可能原因………………………………………………………84
Table 2-4 中國城鎮體系之設定…………………………………………………………………85
Table 2-5選取變數一覽表………………………………………………………………………86
Table 3-1中國大陸東部沿海9城經濟適用房價格產權一覽表…………………………………87
Table 3-2 中國大陸東部沿海9城經濟適用房準入門檻表……………………………………87
Table 3-3中國廉租房和公租房對比一覽表(2013) ………………………………………………88
Table 3-4 不同教育分層下男/女性所得增量對於租金和通勤成本敏感程度表(2013) ………89
Table 3-5 調查對象年齡及教育分布情況(2013) ………………………………………………90
Table 3-6 不同所得階層外來務工人員住房建築類型分布表(2013) …………………………90
Table 3-7 居住于不同建筑类型农民工收入与租金分析表(2013) ……………………………91
Table 3-8 中國住房調控政策一覽表(1993-2015) ………………………………………………91
Table 3-9中央政府行政幹預法令歸納表(2003-2015) …………………………………………91
Table 3-10土地管制政策一覽表…………………………………………………………………95
Table 3-11 稅費政策一覽表(2000-2012) …………………………………………………………96
Table 3-12 中國央行信貨政策調整一覽表(2000-2014) ………………………………………98
Table 3-13 全國限購47城市一覽表(2010-2014) ………………………………………………99
Table 3-14 中國大陸城鎮體系中心城市一覽表…………………………………………………99
Table 3-15 中國特大城市戶籍取得方式一覽表………………………………………………100
Table 5-1 基本資料統計…………………………………………………………………………102
Table 5-2 城市分類………………………………………………………………………………103
Table 5-3 中國城市住房價格決定因素橫剖面資料分析(2010)………………………………104
Table 5-4 中國城市內部分異性一覽表…………………………………………………………106
Table 5-5-1 住房政策衝擊城市選取以及限購時間一覽表……………………………………106
Table 5-5-2 住房政策衝擊基本統計資料(2010.6-2015.5)……………………………………106
Table 5-6-1 Roots of Characteristic Polynomial(Qingdao)……………………………………107
Tabl5 5-6-2 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria(Qingdao)……………………………………108
Table 5-6-3 Vector Autoregression Estimates(Qingdao)………………………………………109
Table 5-7-1 Roots of Characteristic Polynomial(Beijing)………………………………………111
Table 5-7-2 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria(Beijing)………………………………………111
Table 5-7-3 Vector Autoregression Estimates(Beijing)…………………………………………112
Table 5-8-1 Roots of Characteristic Polynomial(Xuzhou)……………………………………114
Table 5-8-2 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria(Xuzhou)………………………………………114
Table 5-8-3 Vector Autoregression Estimates(Xuzhou)………………………………………115
Table 5-9-1 Roots of Characteristic Polynomial(Xi’an)………………………………………116
Table 5-9-2 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria(Xi’an)…………………………………………116
Table 5-9-3 Vector Autoregression Estimates(Xi’an)…………………………………………117
Table 5-10-1 Roots of Characteristic Polynomial(Wenzhou)…………………………………120
Table 5-10-2 VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria(Wenzhou)…………………………………121
Table 5-10-3 Vector Autoregression Estimates(Wenzhou)……………………………………121



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中文文獻
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4.張濤、龔六堂、蔔永祥(2006)。〈資產回報、住房按揭貸款與房地產均衡價格〉, 《金融研究》2:1-11。
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6.馬建平(2011)。〈中國保障性住房制度建設研究〉,吉林大學博士學位論文。
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