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研究生:陳青逸
研究生(外文):Ching-Yi Chen
論文名稱:歐洲議員投票行為分析:以Six-Pack立法為例
論文名稱(外文):The Analysis of MEPs Voting Behaviour on the Six-Pack Economic Governance Package
指導教授:蘇宏達蘇宏達引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hungdah Su
口試委員:吳重禮黃琛瑜
口試委員(外文):Chung-Li WuChen-Yu Huang
口試日期:2015-07-28
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:政治學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:英文
論文頁數:124
中文關鍵詞:歐洲聯盟歐洲經濟貨幣聯盟穩定暨成長公約歐債危機六項包裹法案歐洲金融穩定機制歐洲議會歐洲議員立法政治記名表決歐洲民意調查歐洲政黨選舉政見調查
外文關鍵詞:European UnionEconomic and Monetary UnionStability and Growth PactEuro crisisSix-PackEuropean Financial Stability FacilityEuropean ParliamentMEPslegislative politicsroll-call votingEurobarometerEuromanifestos
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近年研究文獻證實,歐洲議員投票行為主要受到歐洲議會跨國黨團影響,即跨國黨團黨籍而非會員國國籍身份決定歐洲議員投票偏好。本研究旨在探討,當立法表決議案內容大幅限縮會員國的財政與經濟政策自主權時,歐洲議員的投票行為究竟是受到個人政治意識型態、國內政黨、會員國國籍或歐洲議會跨國黨團影響?

本文以第七屆歐洲議會於2011年針對Six-Pack的11項修正案與6項決議案的記名表決紀錄為研究對象,蒐集歐洲議員的個人政治意識型態指數、其所屬國內政黨競選政見之特定政策偏好程度、其所屬會員國的經濟利益與民調結果、其所屬跨國黨團黨籍,以檢證既有歐洲議員投票行為理論。

多項勝算對數模型顯示,在前述 Six-Pack的記名表決紀錄中,首先,跨國黨團黨籍對歐洲議員投票行為有顯著影響,來自中間偏右黨團的歐洲議員傾向支持Six-Pack法案,而來自中間偏左黨團的歐洲議員則傾向反對;其次,歐洲議員所屬會員國國內民眾信任歐洲執委會的程度對歐洲議員投票行為亦有顯著影響,若會員國民眾越傾向信任歐洲執委會,該國歐洲議員越支持Six-Pack法案及其財政紀律的嚴格規範內容。


Empirical research reveals the party membership of European party group (EPG) is a strong predictor of the voting behaviour of the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Yet, we know little about whether this still holds true if the legislative proposals were strongly tied to constrain national budget autonomy and macroeconomic policies. The Lisbon Treaty has significantly enhanced the EP’s formal role in the fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance law-making process by allowing the EP to have co-decision powers under the Ordinary Legislative Procedure (OLP). However, there is little research that provides an analysis of MEP voting behaviour in this policy area. This research focuses on the case of the Six-Pack because it is the first fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance legislative package ever to pass through the EP. This research attempts to answer the following questions: When making stronger rules for fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance, do MEPs vote along with political ideologies, national parties, national affiliations or European party groups?

To understand the determinants of MEPs vote on the Six-Pack, this thesis looks at 11 amended proposal votes and 6 legislative resolution votes in the Seventh European Parliament. Using multinomial logit regression model, this paper identifies several determinants which affect how MEP vote. First, it finds that the EPG membership variables are highly significant determinants of which way MEPs vote on the Six-Pack. The MEPs from the centre-right EPGs are much more in favour of the Six-Pack, while the MEPs of the radical left or centre-left EPGs are more likely to vote against. Second, the statistic results indicate that MEPs from a member state with a high percentage of public trust in the European Commission are more likely to support for the provisions of stringent fiscal rules in the Six-Pack.


List of Contents

國立臺灣大學碩士學位論文口試委員會審定書 i

Acknowledgements iii

中文摘要 vii

Abstract ix

List of Contents xi

List of Tables xv

List of Figures xvi

List of Annexes xviii

List of Abbreviations xxii

Chapter I Introduction 2

Chapter II Research on the European Parliament 6

1. The Evolution of Institutional Reforms of Legislative Procedures 6

(1) From Consultation Procedure to Cooperation Procedure 6

(2) Two Versions of Co-decision Procedures 8

2. Legislative Behaviour of the Members of the European Parliament 11

(1) Party Cohesion 11

(2) MEPs’ Ideal Points: NOMINATE scores 13

Chapter III Case Study: The Six-Pack in the European Parliament 15

1. Background of the Six-Pack 15

2. Main Issues of Amendment Votes 18

(1) RQMV 18

(2) The Amount of EDP Fine and of EDP Deposit 19

3. Main Issues of Legislative Resolution Votes 20

(1) Fiscal Discipline 21

(2) Surveillance of Macroeconomic Imbalance 22

Chapter IV Determinants of MEPs voting preference on the Six-Pack 24

1. Party Groups in the EP 24

2. The Policy Preferences of National Parties 25

3. Public Opinion for the Empowerment of the Commission 26

4. The National Interests of Euro Insiders and Outsiders 27

Chapter V Data Collection 30

1. Amended Proposal Votes 30

(1) RQMV issues 31

(2) EDP Fine and EDP Deposit issues 32

2. Legislative Resolution Votes 33

Chapter VI Variable 35

1. Dependent variable 35

2. Independent variables 36

(1) MEP level 36

(2) CONSTITUENCY level 38

(3) MEMBER STATE level 41

(4) EPG level 43

Chapter VII Results 45

1. Amended Proposal Votes 59

(1) MTO RQMV issues 59

(2) EDP RQMV issues 61

(3) EDP Fine issues 63

(4) EDP Deposit issues 64

2. Legislative Resolution Votes 65

(1) Fiscal Discipline 65

(2) Surveillance of Macroeconomic Imbalances 67

Chapter VIII Conclusion 70

Bibliography 72

Annex 87


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