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研究生:羅浩芸
研究生(外文):Hao-Yun Lo
論文名稱:分析師提供現金流量預測是否影響公司採用現金流量作為高階經理人之績效衡量指標
論文名稱(外文):Is Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecast a Determinant of Firms’ Choice of Operating Cash Flow Metrics as Performance Measure?
指導教授:吳淑鈴吳淑鈴引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shu-Ling Wu
口試委員:洪聖閔高偉娟
口試日期:2015-06-12
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:會計學研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:會計學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:50
中文關鍵詞:分析師預測營業現金流量績效衡量指標高階經理人薪酬
外文關鍵詞:Analyst forecastoperating cash flowsperformance measureCEO compensation
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  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
有鑒於盈餘中由應計數組成之部分受制於管理階層主觀裁量,容易受到雜訊或窗飾之干擾而無法完全捕捉管理階層對於營運資金管理之績效,美國財務會計準則委員會規定自1988年起公司應編製現金流量表。本研究基於市場上對於盈餘之現金組成部分增加的關注,旨在討論分析師對於營業現金流量的預測是否會對於薪酬委員會使用績效衡量指標之傾向有所影響,並進一步探討該預測及薪酬制度設計對於公司後續期間之營業現金流量操縱是否有抑制或激勵的效果。
本研究以1993年至2011年間S&P 500公司中分析師有提供盈餘預測者作為樣本,實證結果顯示:分析師的營業現金流量預測對於公司激勵薪酬制度中現金流量指標的採用有顯著的正向影響,且其透過傳遞資訊給投資人所產生的監督力量亦可抑制高階經理人對營業現金流量之操縱。

For the reason that accrual component of earnings contains more noise and might involve more window dressing, firms are required to provide Statement of Cash Flows as part of the full set of financial statements since 1988. Motivated by the increasing attention by securities market toward the cash component of earnings, this study examines whether the choice of operating cash flows (OCF) performance measure in incentive compensation contracts is influenced by the provision of analysts’ cash flow forecasts. Moreover, the analysis further examines whether the existence of both analysts’ forecasts and cash flows related performance measure in compensation plan might have monitoring or motivation effects on firms’ operating cash flow manipulation.
The empirical results show that the provision of analysts’ OCF forecasts is positively associated with the decision of compensation committee to include OCF metric measures in CEO compensation plan. The findings also suggest that the monitoring effect of analyst following will result in less operating cash flow manipulation.


口試委員會審定書 i
謝辭 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
表目錄 vi

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 論文架構 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 現金流量資訊於高階經理人獎酬制度中之使用 5
第二節 關於分析師現金流量預測之文獻 8
第三節 分析師於薪酬委員會制定獎酬制度所擔任的角色 10
第三章 研究方法 11
第一節 假說發展 11
第二節 實證模型 16
第三節 變數衡量 22
第四節 樣本選取及資料收集 30
第四章 實證結果與分析 34
第一節 敘述性統計 34
第二節 分析師預測對於公司績效指標使用之測試 37
第三節 營業活動現金流量管理之測試 41
第五章 研究結論、限制及建議 43
第一節 研究結論 43
第二節 研究限制及建議 45
參考文獻 46


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