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研究生:陳彥學
研究生(外文):Yan-Syue Chen
論文名稱:論前瞻指引
論文名稱(外文):On Forward Guidance
指導教授:梁國源梁國源引用關係
口試委員:林惠玲余士迪
口試日期:2015-07-27
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:經濟學研究所
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:98
中文關鍵詞:預期管理前瞻指引零利率下限經濟異常條件最適承諾政策
外文關鍵詞:management of expectationsforward guidancezero lower boundextraordinary timesoptimal commitment policies
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2007年全球金融危機以來,各國利用各種不同的貨幣政策作為刺激經濟的手段。預期管理一直以來是貨幣政策成功的關鍵。作為實行溝通未來貨幣政策途徑之工具,前瞻指引主要目標為影響大眾預期。本文首先對前瞻指引的特徵、原理進行論述,並藉著了解零利率下限下,美國、英國、歐元區及日本的經濟異常條件與實施經驗,以剖析實務上前瞻指引的應用。而由於各國的前瞻指引策略仍在進行中,我們也對其實行效果進行討論。本研究發現,央行管理私部門預期可消除零利率下限帶來的扭曲。此外,長期利率為當前與未來預期短期利率之平均值,透過有信用的最適承諾政策,央行可影響短期利率之預期,將可能改變長期利率,進而影響當前總體總合需求,例如投資、消費與產出。因此,本研究認為前瞻指引能在經濟高度異常下,有效地澄清政策意圖,使央行能校正市場預期。

Since the onset of the global finance crisis in 2007, many countries have used various expansionary monetary policies to stimulate their economies. The management of expectations is the key to successful monetary policy at all times, and as the practice of communicating the future path of monetary policy instruments, forward guidance is aimed at influencing the public’s expectations. This essay begins with discussing the characteristics and the rationales of forward guidance. Then, through describing the extraordinary times of and motivation for using forward guidance as a monetary tool of the FRB, BOE, ECB, and BOJ at the zero lower bound, we analyze the applications of forward guidance in practice. Finally, we discuss the relating issues of its policy effects. We find that the management of private-sector expectations by the central bank can be expected to mitigate the distortions of the zero bound. Moreover, the long-term interest rate is the average of the current and expected future short-term interest rates and through a credibly optimal commitment policy, the central bank may influence expected short-term interest rates, successfully shifting the long-term bond yields and hence current macroeconomic aggregate demand such as investment, consumption and output. Therefore, we conclude that the recent increased reliance on forward guidance has helped clarify policy intentions and bring public expectations into closer alignment with central bank’s thinking in highly unusual economic circumstances.

謝辭 i
中文摘要 ii
英文摘要 iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 x
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 前瞻指引之概述 3
2.1 基本內容 3
2.2 基礎理論 6
2.2.1 理論模型之研析 7
2.2.2 前瞻指引與貨幣刺激效果之探討 11
2.2.3 前瞻指引與通貨膨脹之探討 12
2.3 內容操作之類型 12
2.3.1 德爾斐式前瞻指引 13
2.3.2 奧德賽式前瞻指引 15
2.3.3 探討不同類型操作下之政策彈性度 19
2.4 優點與面臨的挑戰 20
第三章 各國央行實施前瞻指引之操作內容 24
3.1 美國 24
3.1.1 美國過去前瞻指引操作 (2003年 ~ 2004年期間) 25
3.1.2 美國近年來前瞻指引操作 (金融海嘯以來) 29
3.2 英國 42
3.2.1 英國經濟背景 43
3.2.2 英國前瞻指引操作 44
3.3 歐元區 50
3.3.1 歐元區經濟背景 51
3.3.2 歐元區前瞻指引操作 54
3.4 日本 57
3.4.1 日本過去前瞻指引操作 (1998年 ~ 2006年期間) 58
3.4.2 日本近年來前瞻指引操作 (金融海嘯以來) 61
第四章 有效性之探討 68
4.1 提升前瞻指引之有效性 68
4.2 實施效果 69
第五章 建議 84
5.1 具後瞻性的前瞻指引 84
5.2 提升前瞻指引內容完整度 86
第六章 結論 90
參考文獻 93


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