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研究生(外文):Chen-Fu Lu
論文名稱(外文):Three Essays of Agriculture Production and Environmentin Taiwan
外文關鍵詞:climate variabilityfarm production functioninput elasticitiesricetreatment effectcounterfactual analysisagricultural production and losspetrochemical industrymultinomial logistic modelTaiwan
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Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate variability on farm production, and most of the researches have been provided by agronomists to identify the bio-physical relationship between climate factors and crop production. Relatively little attention has been given to this relationship from the standpoint of agricultural economists. This study aims to fill this void by assessing the potential cost of ignoring the impact of weather variability on the estimation of rice production function. Using nationwide representative farm-level data in Taiwan in 2008 and the Geographic Information System method, we merge the appropriate weather data with the existing farm data. Our results point to a biased estimation of the input elasticities if weather conditions are not considered. Moreover, the effects of temperature on rice production are more pronounced than the effects of rainfall.

This study has used the panel data of Rice Production Cost Survey (RPCS) from Council of Agriculture (CoA) in Taiwan to assess the potential air pollution effects of the petrochemical industry on agricultural production in Yunlin Country. We have adopted the recently developed panel data approach of Hsiao et al. (2012) and synthetic control method of Abadie et al. (2010) for evaluation of treatment effect to construct the counterfactual paths of Yunlin’s rice production for the first and second period and further estimated what kind of pollutants would be account for the reduction of rice output. Our results have not only revealed the importance of ex post counterfactual analysis, but also provided empirical evidence that the possible adverse influence of petrochemical industry on agricultural production in Yunlin Country may be an increasing severe and crucial problem in the future. Based on these results, we have concluded that how to measure the production of crop would be in absence of pollution or even without the development of petrochemical industry is important for policy makers and the Government to assess the influence on environment and agricultural development.

口試委員會審定書 i
誌謝 ii
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii

How Important Are Climate Characteristics to the Estimation of Rice Production Function?
Abstract 1
I. Introduction 2
II. Materials and methods 4
1.1 Data 4
2.1 Measures 5
3.1 Statistical analysis 7
III. Results and discussions 9
IV. Conclusion 21
References 24

The Evaluation of the Treatment Effect Between Environment Risk and Agricultural Loss
Abstract 30
I. Introduction 31
II. Empirical Methodology 37
2.1 General Principle of the Treatment Effect 37
2.2 Synthetic Control Method to Construct Counterfactuals 38
2.3 Panel Approach to Construct Counterfactuals 40
III. Data Sources 43
IV. Empirical Results 45
4.1 The Estimated Weights for Control Countries 45
4.2 The Estimated Treatment Effect 49
4.3 The possible emission pollutants 55
V. Conclusions and Policy Implications 58
References 61

摘要 66
一、前言 67
二、有機農業與區域之關係 67
三、空間相關與有機農業之關係 72
四、資料 74
五、實證模型與結果 75
(一) Moran’s I 75
(二) Spatial Model 77
(三) Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) 80
(四) Multinomial Logistic Model 82
六、結論 83
參考文獻 85

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Essay 2:
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