臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

傳統的財務理論假設金融市場有效率及參與者具有理性，忽略人在決策過程中可能產生的情緒化與心理偏誤等不理性的行為，導致實際上決策行為與傳統財務理論所預期者有極大的差異。其中，過度自信是影響極大也是最常見於市場參與者或公司管理者的心理偏誤，本研究即在回顧有關過度自信的理論與實證之文獻，包括過度自信的定義、形成因素、衡量方式，以及投資人和管理者過度自信產生的影響等。過度自信的定義可從表現的行為與現象來界定。過度自信的形成因素則從情境之不確定性、經驗與專業、行為之動機、機率加權差異、認知失調、回饋之速度與明確性以及失敗的成本高低等因素來觀察。
過度自信的衡量分為投資人和管理者兩方面，本研究回顧了重要的衡量方法，也探討過度自信衡量指標的相關實證研究。投資人過度自信產生的影響主要是在股票交易量和交易頻率上，引起股價不理性反應 (過度反應或反應不足)，降低市場效率性；管理者過度自信產生的影響則從公司的投資決策、融資決策、股利政策 (包含股利支付與股票購回決策)、公司治理品質以及現金持有決策等方面加以探討。期望透過本研究對過度自信相關文獻之回顧，提供投資人、公司管理者及主管機關參考，增進財務決策與監理工作之合理性與最佳化。

Traditional financial theory assumes that financial market is efficient and participants are rational, overlooking the emotional and psychological bias which are not rational behavior, in the decision-making process, leading to the great differences between actual deciding conducts and the expectations of traditional financial theory. The overconfidence bias has a great influence and is the most common psychological bias for market participants and company managers. Thus, the present study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the overconfidence, including the definition, determinants, measures of overconfidence, and the impacts of overconfidence for investors and managers. The definition of overconfidence can be described from the behavior and phenomenon performed.
The determinants of overconfidence include the uncertainty of situation, experience and expertise, behavioral motivation, the weighted probability difference, cognitive dissonance, speed and clarity of feedback as well as the cost of failure. The measure of overconfidence is described from viewpoints of investors and managers. The study reviews important measures, and also addresses the relevant empirical studies about the overconfidence measures.
The impact of investor overconfidence is mainly on the stock trading volume and transaction frequency, causing the stock irrational reaction (overreaction or underreaction) and reducing market efficiency. The influences of managerial overconfidence are reviewed from the aspects of company's investment decisions, financing decisions, dividend policy (including dividend payments and share repurchase decisions), the quality of corporate governance and cash holding decisions. This study expects that through the review of overconfidence-related literature, the research can provide references for investors, company managers and the regulatory agency and enhance the rationality and optimization for financial decision-making and supervisions.

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
目錄 IV
第一章 前言 1
第一節 研究動機 .1
第二節 研究目的與架構 2
第二章 過度自信的意義與形成因素 4
第一節 過度自信的意義 4
第二節 過度自信的形成因素 7
第三節 如何降低過度自信 11
第三章 過度自信的衡量方法 13
第一節 投資人過度自信之衡量 13
第二節 管理者過度自信之衡量 15
第四章 過度自信的影響 19
第一節 投資人過度自信的影響 19
第二節 管理者過度自信的影響 23
第五章 結論 32
參考文獻 34

一、中文部份
1.余黛欣，2011，「管理者過度自信與內部人交易對公司從事股票買回影響之研究」，輔仁大學企業管理學研究所碩士論文。
2.吳忠諺，2009，「管理者過度自信與公司從事股票買回之相關性研究」，國立中央大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
3.吳政義，2004，「台灣總統大選期間過度自信的投資行為與股價關聯性之研究」，國立東華大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
4.吳慧珍，2010，「管理者過度自信與內部人交易對公司從事股票買回影響之研究」，國立中正大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。
5.李健琮，2006，「台灣經理人過度自信行為與公司投資相關性研究」，國立中山大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
6.林慶章，2005，「基金經理人過度自信、升遷制度與投資組合風險選擇關係之理論－展望理論觀點」，國立雲林科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。
7.邱顯比、陳虹霖，2002， 「國內共同基金投資人過度自信行為之研究」，國立臺灣大學財務金融學系研究所碩士論文。
8.洪瑞怡，2010，「經理人過度自信與庫藏股買回之研究」，輔仁大學管理學研究所碩士論文。
9.奚雨亭，2011，「經理人過度自信與實施庫藏股購回關係之研究」，國立臺灣大學財務金融學系研究所碩士論文。
10.張力、蔡函芳、林翠蓉、王禹軒、洪榮華，2013，家族企業特性與經理人過度自信對其舉債決策之影響，「中山管理評論」，第二十一卷第一期，頁123-163。
11.黃永杰，2004，「基金經理人升遷與過度自信之理論與實證」，國立雲林科技大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
12.黃惠琴，2014，「內部人過度自信對股票購回後風險與營運績效之影響」，亞洲大學國際企業學系研究所碩士論文。
13.劉永欽，2008，股票購回宣告後股價是否過度反應? 過度自信與自我歸因偏誤的觀點，「證券市場發展季刊」，第二十卷第四期，頁39-86。
14.劉永欽，2014a，經理人過度自信對機構投資人監督效果之影響，「行政院科技部102學年專題研究計畫結案報告」。
15.劉永欽，2014b，董事及管理者過度自信對董事會治理效果之影響，行政院科技部104學年專題研究計畫。
16.劉永欽、洪榮華，2006，過度自信與股市交易行為關聯性之實證研究：以國內證券商為例，「中山管理評論」，第十四卷第三期，頁569-603。
17.蔡坤興，2006，「報酬率、融資交易量與過度自信之相關性研究」，國立雲林科技大學財務金融系研究所未出版碩士論文。
18.鄭瑞杰，2014，「管理者心理偏誤與公司現金持有決策」，亞洲大學財務金融學系研究所碩士論文。
19.蕭瑋進，2006，「行為公司財務觀點下支付政策之探討－迎合理論與經理人過度自信」，文化大學國際貿易學系研究所碩士論文。
20.賴麗玲，2003，「錯置效應與過度自信之實證-以高週轉率共同基金經理人之表現為例」，實踐大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
二、英文部份
1.Adams, R. B. and D. Ferreira, 2007, A theory of friendly board, Journal of Finance, 62, pp. 217-250.
2.Alicke, M., M. Klotz, D. Breitenbecher, and T. Yurak, et al., 1995, Personal contact individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68 (5), pp. 804-825.
3.Arkes, H. R., C. Christensen, C. Lai, and C. Blumer, 1987, Two methods of reducing overconfidence, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39(1), pp. 133-144.
4.Barber, B. M. and T. Odean, 2001, The internet and the investors, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), pp. 41-54.
5.Barber, B. M. and T. Odean, 2003, Are individual investors tax savvy? Evidence from retail and discount accounts, Journal of Public Economic, 88, pp. 419-442.
6.Barber, M. B., T. Odean, and L. Zheng, 2001, Out of sight, out of mind: The effects of expenses on mutual fund flows, Working paper.
7.Ben-David, I., J. R. Graham, and C. R. Harvey, 2007, Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies, Working paper, No. w13711, National Bureau of Economic Research.
8.Benos, A. V., 1998, Aggressiveness and survival of overconfidence traders, Journal of Financial Markets, 1, pp. 353-383.
9.Bouwman, C. H., 2010, Managerial optimism and the market’s reaction to dividend changes, Working paper, Case Western Reserve University.
10.Brown, R. and N. Sarma, 2007, CEO overconfidence, CEO dominance and corporate acquisitions, Journal of Economics and Business, 59(5), pp. 358-379.
11. Campbell, T. C., M. Gallmeyer, S. A. Johnson, J. Rutherford, and B. W. Stanley, 2011, CEO optimism and forced turnover, Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3), pp. 695-712.
12.Chin, C., H. Lin, and Y. Chang, 1999, Mandatory management forecast errors as a variable to earnings manipulation, with a 20% hurdle set by TAIEX regulators, Journal of Financial Studies, 7(1), pp. 59-96.
13.Daniel, K. and S. Titman, 1999, Market efficiency in an irrational world, Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6), pp. 28-40.
14.Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions, Journal of Finance, 53(6), pp. 1839-1886.
15.De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. H. Thaler, 1995, Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective, In: Jarrow, R. A., V. Maksimovic, W. T. Ziemba (Eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, 9, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 385-410 (Chapter 13).
16.De Bondt, W. F. M. and R. Thaler, 1985, Does the stock market overreact?, Journal of Finance, 40, pp. 793-805.
17.DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. J. Skinner, 1996, Reversal of fortune dividend signaling and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth, Journal of Financial Economics, 40(3), pp. 341-371.
18.Deshmukh, S., A. M. Goel, and K. M. Howe, 2013, CEO overconfidence and dividend policy, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(3), pp. 440-463.
19.Doukas, J. A. and D. Petmezas, 2007, Acquisitions, overconfident CEO and self-attribution bias, European Financial Management, 13(3), pp. 531-577.
20.Einhorn, H. J., 1980, Overconfidence in judgment, New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 4, pp. 1-16.
21.Ekholm, A. and D. Pasternack, 2002, Overconfidence and investor size, Working paper, Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration.
22.Fairchild, R., 2006, The effect of managerial overconfidence, asymmetric information, and moral hazard on capital structure decisions, Working paper, University of Bath
23.Fama, E. F., 1970, Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work, Journal of Finance, 25, pp. 383-417
24.Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 3, pp. 552-564.
25.Fiske, ST and SE Taylor, 1991, Social Cognition, 2nd ed., McGraw-Hill,
New York.
26.Frost, C., 1997, Disclosure policy choices of UK firms receiving modified audit reports, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 23, pp. 163-187.
27. Gervais, S. and T. Odean, 2001, Learning to be overconfident, Review of Financial Studies, 14, pp. 1-27.
28.Gervais, S., J. B. Heaton, and T. Odean, 2002, The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy, Working paper, Rodney White Center for Financial Research.
29.Gervais, S., J. B. Heaton, and T. Odean, 2007, Overconfidence, investment policy, and manager welfare, Working paper, Fuqua School of Business. Gervais, S., J. B. Heaton, and T. Odean, 2011, Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting, Journal of Finance, 66, pp. 1735-1777.
30.Gigerenzer, G., U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting, 1991, Probabilistic mental models: A brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98(4), pp. 506 – 528.
31.Gilson, S., 1989, Management Turnover and Financial Distress, Journal of Financial Economics, 25, pp. 241-262.
32.Goel, A. M. and A. V. Thakor, 2000, Rationality, overconfidence and leadership, Working paper, DePaul University.
33.Goel, A. M. and A. V. Thakor, 2008, Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance, 63(6), pp. 2737-2784.
34.Griffin, D. and A. Tversky, 1992, The weighing of evidence and the determinants of overconfidence, Cognitive Psychology, 24(3), pp. 411-435.
35.Hackbarth, D., 2004, Managerial optimism, overconfidence, and capital structure decisions, In: European Finance Association Annual Meeting, Aug 2004, Maasticht, The Netherlands.
36.Hackbarth, D., 2008, Managerial traits and capital structure decisions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(4), pp. 843-881.
37.Hall, B. J. and K. J. Murphy , 2002, Stock options for undiversified executives, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 33, pp. 3-42
38. Hastorf, A., D. Schneider, and J. Polefka, 1970, person perception, Reading, Addison-Wesley.
39.Haugen, R. A., 1999, The Inefficient Stock Market, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
40.Heath, C. and A. Tversky, 1991, Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4, pp. 5-28.
41.Heaton, J. B., 2002, Managerial optimism and corporate finance, Financial Management, 31(2), pp. 33-45.
42.Hermalin, B. E. and M. S. Weisbach, 1998, Endogenously chosen boards of directors and their monitoring of the CEO, American Economic Review, 88, pp. 96-118.
43.Hilary, G. and L. Menzly, 2001, Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident?, Working paper, University of Chicago
44.Hirshleifer, D., A. Low, and S. H. Teoh, 2012, Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?, Journal of Finance, 67(4), pp. 1457-1498.
45.Irani, A., 2003, Management earnings forecast bias and insider trading: Comparison of distressed and non-distressed firms, Journal of Business and Economics, 9(1), pp. 12-25.
46. Kahneman, D. and A. Tverskey, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science, 185, pp. 1124-1131.
47.Kahneman, D. and A. Tverskey, 1979, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47(2), pp. 263-292.
48.Kahneman, D. and D. Lovallo, 1993, Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking, Management Science, 39, pp. 17-31.
49. Kahneman, D. and M. W. Riepe, 1998, Aspects of investor psychology, Journal of Portfolio Management, 24, pp. 52-65.
50.Kim, K. A. and J. R. Nofsinger, 2002, The behavior and performance of individual investors in Japan, Working Paper.
51. Kolasinski, A. C. and X. Li, 2011, Can strong boards and trading experience help CEOs make better decisions? Evidence from acquisitions by overconfident CEOs, Working paper, The Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington.
52. Koriat, A., S. Lichtenstein, and B. Fischhoff, 1980, Reasons for confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, pp. 107-118.
53.Kyle, A. S. and A. Wang, 1997, Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree: Can overconfidence survive the market test?, Journal of Finance, 52, pp. 2072-2090.
54.Lang, M. and R. Lundholm, 2000, Voluntary disclosure during equity offerings: Reducing information asymmetry of hyping the stock?, Contemporary Accounting Research, 17, pp. 623-662.
55.Langer J., 1975, The illusion of control, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, pp. 311-328.
56.Larwood, L. and W. Whittaker, 1977, Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning, Journal of Applied Psychology, 62, pp.94-198.
57.Lichtenstein, S., and B. Fischhoff, 1977, Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, pp. 159-183.
58.Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff, and L. D. Phillips, 1982, Calibration of probability: The state of the art to 1980, In: Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Bias, pp. 306-334, Cambridge University Press.
59.Lin, Y. H., S. Y. Hu, and M. S. Chen, 2005, Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13, pp. 523-546.
60. Lin, Y. H., S. Y. Hu, and M. S. Chen, 2008, Testing pecking order prediction from the viewpoint of managerial optimism: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 16(1-2), pp. 160-181.
61.Locke, P. R. and S. C. Mann, 2001, House money and overconfidence on the trading floor, Working paper, Texas Christian University.
62.Lord, C., L. Ross, and M. Lepper, 1979, Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(11), pp. 2098-2109.
63.Malmendier, U. and G. Tate, 2008, Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction, Journal of Financial Economics, 89, pp. 20-43.
64.Malmendier, U. and G. Tate, 2005a, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance, 60(6), pp. 2661-2700.
65.Malmendier, U. and G. Tate, 2005b, Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited, European Financial Management, 11(5), pp. 649-659.
66.Malmendier, U., G. Tate, and J. Yan, 2007, Overconfidence and early-life experiences: The effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies, Journal of Finance, 66, pp. 1687-1733.
67.March, J. G. and Z. Shapira, 1987, Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking, Management Science, 33(11), pp. 1404-1418.
68.Mayseless, O. and A. W. Kruglanski, 1987, What makes you so sure? Effects of epistemic motivation on confidence, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 39, pp. 162-183.
69.Mefteh, S. and B. Oliver, 2007, Capital structure choice: The influence of confidence in France, Paper presented at the French Finance Association.
70.Misra, L. and Y. Shi, 2007, Option Exercise by CEO's: Overconfidence Vs. Market Timing, UTSA, College of Business.
71.Moore, PG, 1977, The manager's struggle with uncertainty, Journal of The Royal Statistical Society Series A 149, pp.129-165.
72.Noe, C., 1999, Voluntary disclosures and insider transactions, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 27, pp. 305-327.
73.Obitade, P. O., 2013, CEO overconfidence, board composition and bank failure, Working paper, University of North Texas, Available at SSRN 2352053.
74.Odean, T., 1998a, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? Journal of Finance, 53, pp. 1775-1798.
75.Odean, T., 1998b, Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average, Journal of Finance, 53, pp. 1887-1934.
76.Odean, T., 1999, Do investors trade too much? American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1279-1298.
77.Oliver, B. R., 2005, The impact of management confidence on capital structure, Working Paper, Australian National University.
78.Oskamp, S., 1965, Overconfidence in Case-study Judgments. Journal of Consulting Psychology XXIX: pp.261-265.
79.Paredes, T. A., 2005, Too much pay, too much deference: Behavioral corporate finance, CEOs, and corporate governance, Florida state University Law Review, 32(2), pp. 673-762.
80.Pathan, S. and M. Skully, 2010, Endogenously structured boards of directors in banks, Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(7), pp. 1590-1606.
81.Pennington, N., and R. Hastie, 1988, Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, pp. 521-533.
82.Roll, R., 1986, The hubris theory of corporate takeovers, Journal of Business, 59(2), pp. 197-216.
83.Russo, J. E., and P. J. H., Schoemaker, 1990, Decision traps: The ten steps to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them, Simon and Schuster.
84.Schrand, C. M. and S. L. Zechman, 2011, Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53, pp. 311–329.
85.Shefrin, H. and M. Statman, 1985, The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence, Journal of Finance, pp. 777-790.
86.Shefrin, H., 2000, Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing, Harvard Business School Press, Boston.
87.Shefrin, H., 2007, Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions that Create Value, McGraw-HiII, International Edition.
88.Shefrin, H., and M. Statman, 1994, Behavioral capital asset pricing theory, Journal of Finance and Quantitative Analysis, 29, pp. 323-349.
89.Shen, Y. and S. Chen, 2009, Empirical study on relationship among board overconfidence, CEO turnover and corporate performance, Chinese Journal of Management, 10, pp. 1340-1346.
90.Shleifer, A., 2000, Inefficient Market, Oxford U. Press, Oxford.
91.Song, F. and A. V. Thakor, 2006, Information control, career concerns, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance, 61(4), pp. 1845-1896.
92.Statman, M., 1999, Behavioral finance: Past battles and future engagements, Financial Analysts Journal, 55, pp. 18-27.
93.Statman, M., and S. Thorley, 1998, Overconfidence and Trading Volume, Working paper, Santa Clara University.
94.Statman, M., S. Thorley, and K. Vorkink, 2006, Investor overconfidence and trading volume, Review of Financial Studies, 19, pp. 1531-1565.
95.Weinstein, N. D., 1980, Unrealistic optimism about future life events, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), pp. 806-820.
96.Wu, C. H. and V. W. Liu, 2011, Payout policy and CEO overconfidence, Working paper, National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan.
97.Yates, J. F., 1990, Judgment and Decision Making, Englewood Cliffs, NJ：Prentice-Hall.
98.Ye, B., 2008, Managerial overconfidence and corporate investment: Evidence from P. R. China, Journal of American Academy of Business, 13(1), pp. 246-280.
99.Yoram, B. T., S. Anat, and K. R. Liat, 2001, A test of the overconfidence phenomenon using audio signals, The Journal of General Psychology, 128, pp. 76-80.
100. Zakay, D. and J. Glicksohn, 1992, Overconfidence in a multiple-choice test and its relationship to achievement, Psychological Record, 42, pp. 519-524