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研究生:何敏綺
研究生(外文):Min-Chi Ho
論文名稱:台灣塑膠工業經營績效評估模式-分析網路程序法與灰關聯分析法之應用
論文名稱(外文):Plastic Industrial Business Performance Evaluation Model in Taiwan : Application of Analytic Network Process and Grey Relational Analysis
指導教授:陳弘宙黃寶慧黃寶慧引用關係
指導教授(外文):Hung-Chou ChenBao-Hui Huang
口試委員:范姜肱張新沅黃寶慧
口試委員(外文):Chiang-Kung FanHsin-Yua ChangBao-Hui Huang
口試日期:2015-01-17
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:稻江科技暨管理學院
系所名稱:境外EMBA企業管理碩士在職專班
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:其他商業及管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:103
語文別:中文
論文頁數:84
中文關鍵詞:經營績效塑膠工業網路層級分析法灰色關聯分析
外文關鍵詞:Business PerformancePlastic IndustryAnalytic Network ProcessGrey Relational Analysis
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美國經濟疲軟、歐債危機的影響,使得國內總體經濟成長動能不足,股票成交量持續低迷,民生物資齊聚飆漲,失業率攀升,經濟成長率也不斷向下修正。在這一片不景氣中,對投資者而言,危機即是轉機,一個準確且有效的績效評估方法,將可幫助投資者選擇一個價值偏低的績優個股,以利未來景氣反轉時獲取超額報酬。因此,本研究首先透過德菲法篩選出影響塑膠工業績效之準則,應用分析網路程序法以決定我國塑膠工業公司準則與次準則之權重,透過灰關聯分析法,得各家塑膠工業公司之績效排序。本研究可應用於上市上櫃之塑膠工業公司之財務報表資料計算各公司之經營績效值做績效排名,此研究結果可做為投資者選股作長期投資之重要參考依據。
Weak US economy and the impact of the European debt crisis make the domestic economic growth improve slowly. Stock trading volume remains in the doldrums and the prices of livelihood materials soar high. With the rising unemployment rate, the economic growth rate has also been in a downward trend. In the midst of recession, the crisis is a turning point for investors. An accurate and effective performance evaluation method will help investors choose a low value of blue-chip stocks in order to obtain excess benefit when the next boom rebounds. Therefore, this study which is conducted with Delphi method results in the guidelines affecting the performance of plastic industry and determines the right method of Plastic Industries criteria and sub-criteria by using the application network analysis program. The value rank of each plastic industry company will be made through the gray relational analysis. Financial report data in this study can be applied to compute the value of each publicly traded plastic industry company’s performance rankings. Besides, the results of this study can be used as an important reference for investors in the stock selection of long-term investment.
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
目 錄 iii
圖 目 錄 v
表 目 錄 vi
第一章 緒 論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究問題與目的 2
1.3研究範圍與對象 3
1.4研究流程與架構 3
1.5論文結構 5
第二章 文獻探討 7
2.1塑化工業的產業概況 7
2.1.1 塑化工業定義與範疇 7
2.1.2塑膠工業的發展沿革 8
2.1.3塑膠工業的相關研究 10
2.2績效評估 10
2.2.1績效評估的意義 10
2.2.2各種績效評估方法 12
2.2.3常用財務分析比率 13
2.2.4財務比率分析與經營績效之相關文獻 15
2.3德菲法(Delphi Method) 18
2.4灰色關聯分析法(Grey Relational Analysis) 21
2.4.1灰色關聯分析執行程序 22
2.4.2應用灰色關聯分析之相關文獻 24
2.5網路層級分析法(Analytic Network Process) 25
2.6層級分析法與網路層級分析法之比較 30
第三章 決策模式之建構 33
3.1 ANP模式之步驟程序 33
3.2建構塑膠工業之經營績效的評選準則 38
3.3 ANP模型之建構 48
第四章 分析與驗證 51
4.1 ANP問卷設計與發放 53
4.2 ANP演算分析 53
4.3 ANPGRA演算分析 60
4.4 小結 66
第五章 結論與建議 67
5.1結論 67
5.2研究限制 68
5.3對產業應用之建議 68
5.4對後續研究之建議 69
參考文獻 70

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二、中文部分
1. 胡順斌,「以財務比率建立我國產險公司經營績效評估模式之研究」,淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士論文,1995年。
2. 吳漢雄、鄧聚龍、溫坤禮,「灰色理論入門」,台北市:高立出版,1996年。
3. 黃博信,「經營績效評估模式之研究-以台灣地區塑膠業為例」,淡江大學管理研究所碩士論文,1996年。
4. Peter F. Drucker,「杜拉克 經理人的專業與挑戰」,李田樹譯,天下遠見,台北,1999年。
5. 施並洲,「類神經網路、案例推理法、灰色關聯分析於財務危機之應用」,國立中央大學工業管理研究所碩士論文,1999年。
6. 吳萬益,林清河,「企業研究方法」,台北市:華泰文化,2001年。
7. 王懷德台灣地區塑膠原料業產業經濟與二氧化碳排放關聯分析」,國立成功大學環境工程學系碩士論文,2001年。
8. 許志成,「台灣企業關鍵成功因素廷伸至大陸之研究-以PVC可塑劑產業為例」,國立臺灣大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文,2001年。
9. 盧靜怡,「企業經營績效排名之預測-灰色關聯分析與類神經網路之應用」,國立臺灣科技大學資訊管理系碩士論文,2001年。
10. 趙勃軒,「以財務比率分析區別台灣地區上市電子公司經營績效」,大同大學事業經營研究所在職專班碩士論文,2002年。
11. 詹子慧,「台灣石化業工業生態之研究」,國立台灣大學環境工程學研究所碩士論文」,2002年。
12. 楊文欽,「傳統產業因應知識經濟時代來臨之初期探討研究---以石化產業為例」,國立台灣大學工業工程學研究所碩士學位論文,2002年。
13. 陳士昀,「工業工程師所具備之塑膠材料加工專業知識範圍之研究」,銘傳大學設計管理研究所碩士論文,2003年。
14. 蘇原田,「台灣傳統塑膠產業經營績效評估之研究」,國立成功大學工學院工程管理碩士在職專班碩士論文,2004年。
15. 章長原,「全球半導體市場趨勢與台灣IC設計產業經營績效之關連性研究」,中原大學企業管理研究所碩士論文,2004年。
16. 徐若倩,「灰關聯分析與TOPSIS方法應用於企業經營績效評估之研究」,義守大學資訊工程學系碩士論文,2004年。
17. 吳幸融,「原油價格與相關股價關係之探討-以塑化類股/紡織類股為例」,開南管理學院企業管理研究所在職專班碩士論文,2005年。
18. 李志偉,「利用六標準差管理提昇中小企業之產品品質-以塑膠產業霧度改善為例」,國立中央大學工業管理研究所碩士論文,2006年。
19. 陳志勝,「塑化產業供應鏈之經銷商對供應商評選之模糊多準則評估研究」,國立雲林科技大學資訊管理系碩士論文,2006年。
20. 林晏如,「成熟產業中信任與關係持續之研究-塑膠原物料產業為例」,大同大學事業經營研究所碩士論文,2007年。
21. 汪孟儀,「台灣食品產業和塑膠產業上市公司風險承擔之研究」,朝陽科技大學財務金融系碩士論文,2008年。
22. 蔡培軒,「建構財富管理銀行組織績效之評選模式:網路層級分析法與平衡計分卡之應用」,元培科技大學經營管理研究所,2008年。
23. 郭志遠,「桃園縣市農會經營績效評估模式建立之研究-局部灰關聯分析法之應用」,國立屏東科技大學企業管理系碩士論文,2009年。
24. 洪小媛,「台灣地區塑膠工業經營績效之研究-DEA模型之應用」,樹德科技大學經營管理研究所碩士論文,2010年。
25. 林慧雯,「應用TOPSIS於上市塑膠工業經營績效之研」,虎尾科技大學工業工程與管理研究所碩士論文,2013年。
26. 劉淑芳,「金融風暴、財務結構與公司營運-以台灣地區塑膠工業為例」,淡江大學國際企業學系碩士在職專班碩士論文,2014年。

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