臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台北市政府交通局在2009年與台灣捷安特公司，推動公共自行車租賃系統服務計畫成立微笑單車(YouBike)。經過各項評估後，於104年4月1日起，調整收費方式前30分鐘自付5元，超過30分鐘的借車費用維持與現況相同，改變收費模式期望能改善供不應求帶來的不方便。
本研究利用時間序列方法的ARIMA預測模組來做分群，再搭配上維基百科與Google Map做租賃站周遭環境的分析比對，期望能探討 (1)使用狀況是否因收費方式改變而影響 (2)環境跟分析模組的關係。經過實證分析後，可從數據中看出四月的使用量有下降的趨勢，且租賃站有集中在ARIMA(1,0,1)上。

The 2009 year, Taipei city government department of transportation with giant bicycles are promote public bicycle rental system service program(YouBike). On 1st April, 2015, there will be an NT5 charge for the first 30 minutes in Taipei city, for rentals over 30 minutes, charges remain unchanged. They hope this change can be batter.
This study used Time Series to ARIMA predictive model ,Wikipedia and Google Map to do analysis with environment. expected to achieve:
(1)The relationship between usage and change Charging mode.
(2)The relationship between environment and analysis module.
Theory and Empirical Analysis on this paper, Statistics shows that data set can find utilization ratio are tending to declinein April, and the rentals course model focus on ARIMA(1,0,1).

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章、 緒論 1
1.1動機 1
1.2目的 1
1.3研究流程 2
第二章、 文獻探討 3
2.1資料探勘 3
2.1.1分群與分類 4
2.1.2遺失資料填補 5
2.2時間序列 6
2.3整合自我歸移動平均模型(ARIMA) 8
2.3.1單根檢定 10
2.3.2自我相關函數(Autocorrelation Function, ACF)與偏自我相關函數(Partial Autocorrelation Function, PACF) 10
2.4微笑單車(YouBike) 11
第三章、 研究方法 12
3.1研究樣本 12
3.2研究架構 14
3.3資料處理 14
3.4資料分群 16
第四章、 實證研究 19
4.1資料集整理 19
4.2使用狀況 20
4.3模式檢定分析 24
第五章、 結論與未來展望 28
5.1結論 28
5.1.1信義區YouBike租借狀況 28
5.1.2模式分析 28
5.2研究貢獻 35
5.3營運建議 36
5.4未來展望 36
參考文獻 37
附錄A 40
附錄B 134

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