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研究生:鐘之辰
研究生(外文):Chih-Chen Chung
論文名稱:以多變量分析探討北部空品區臭氧生成之研究
論文名稱(外文):A study of the Ozone Production in Northern Area of Taiwan Utilizing Multivariate Statistical Analysis
指導教授:望熙榮望熙榮引用關係
指導教授(外文):Shi-Zoom Wang
口試委員:陳鶴文郭崇義
口試委員(外文):Ho-Wen ChenChung-Yih Kuo
口試日期:2016-07-01
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:環境工程學系所
學門:工程學門
學類:環境工程學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:92
中文關鍵詞:臭氧相關性分析逐步迴歸複迴歸分析
外文關鍵詞:ozoneCorrelation analysisStepwise regressionMultiple linear regression analysis
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近年來空氣品質惡化有感,政府訂立了法規與指標以便推動空氣品質保護及防制空氣污染計畫時有所依據。而由測站歷年數據顯示,空氣污染因此漸漸獲得改善,目前以PM10與臭氧為各地區空氣品質不良之主要指標污染物。PM10污染在源頭減量政策之下已逐漸改善,但因臭氧為二次污染物,雖前趨物減量卻無改善之成效。有鑑於此,本研究即以環保署空氣品質測站之數據,量化北部空品區2010年至2014年臭氧濃度分布情形,並以多變量分析中多元線性迴歸方法評估北部空品區臭氧生成因素,並期許能提供導致北部空品區臭氧上升之線索,用以改善北部空品區臭氧污染狀況。
本研究結果討論可分為兩個部分,第一部分為北部空品區臭氧濃度之敘述性統計,第二部分則為經驗模式結果之呈現。在第一部分由描述性分析中可知來自生產活動所生成之高濃度臭氧確實無逐年改善,且集中在一日內早上十時至下午二時,而在季平均比較中發現各測站之臭氧濃度高值發生的季節不同,更證明氣象條件之輔助的重要性,因此本研究擷取此範圍之數據當作經驗模式模擬之母群體;第二部分中,藉由相關性分析了解臭氧與各污染物之關聯,以一氧化氮與濕度為顯著負相關,正相關性則以懸浮微粒與細懸浮微粒、溫度為顯著正相關;利用逐步迴歸來建立經驗模式因子選取,以冬季來說受各污染物因子影響的狀況一致性較高,雨量、紫外線、雲量等氣象因子於迴歸結果中之顯著性不佳,可以得知這些因子輔助成分居多;以複迴歸分析建立經驗模式,最後選取新店夏季討論經驗模式應用、模式適用範圍、模式缺失與限制,預測值迴歸結果R2達0.78,而當公式內有任何一因子無監測時即無法使用此公式,臭氧濃度大於120ppb時會偏低估計,而以季節區分可能會導致結果失真。


According to the data in the past decade show air pollution gradually improved, the mainstreams of pollutants is PM10 and ozone. The concentration of PM10 is progressively reduced from the policy which is formulated by EPA but ozone is a secondary pollutants not from emissions direct, this policy is useless to it.
In our research, we collect the data from 2010 to 2014 in EPA air quality database and use it to investigate air pollution in Northern Area of Taiwan. Multivariate Analysis is the way to build up linear regression, finding the factor of ozone production in Northern Area of Taiwan and utilizing empirical formula to know what time the high concentration would happen.
The results of research and discussion would be divided into two parts. The first part is the basic descriptive statistics in Northern Area, the second part is the results of the model. In the first part, we found high concentrations of ozone is really accumulated year by year and it occurred frequently from 10:00 AM to 02:00 PM, so we select in the range of data to experiment. In addition, we found that the high mean season ozone concentration of each station is not same completely. This is evidence that the weather conditions is auxiliary.
In the second part, first, we utilize correlation analysis to understand the cognate of ozone with other precursor. We can tell the NO and humidity with significantly positive relationship to a ozone, the PM2.5 and temperature with significantly negative relationship. Second, the utilization of stepwise regression model choose experience factor. The ozone contamination change in each station is consistent in winter. Third, we used multiple regression analysis to establish empirical model and finally selected Xin-dian summer time as the case to discuss the mode application, scope, deletion and limitations. The R2 of regression results between predicted and measured value of ozone is 0.78. If any factor is missing, this formula wouldn`t be used. It is estimated to be low when the ozone concentration is greater than 120ppb and separate the result in season is not the great way. We expect to have determined that whether the hourly ozone concentration exceeded or not through a series of factors and excessive design.


第一章 前言 1
1.1. 研究緣起 1
1.2. 研究目的與架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
2.1. 臺灣北部空氣品質區地理環境以及測站分布 5
2.1.1. 基隆市 6
2.1.2. 臺北市 7
2.1.3. 新北市 8
2.1.4. 桃園市 10
2.2. 臭氧在大氣層中的分布 13
2.3. 對流層臭氧光化學反應 14
2.4. 污染物因子來源 18
2.5. 臭氧與氣象因子 21
2.6. 臭氧危害 23
2.7. 統計分析應用於臭氧污染之研究 24
第三章 研究方法 25
3.1. 研究設計 25
3.2. 研究工具與資料描述 26
3.2.1. R 26
3.2.2. 資料來源與限制 27
3.2.3. 資料前處理 31
3.3. 統計分析 38
3.3.1. 樣本背景資料之描述性統計分析 38
3.3.2. 相關性分析(Correlation analysis) 39
3.3.3. 逐步迴歸(Stepwise Regression)與多元複迴歸分析(Multiple linear regression analysis) 40
第四章 結果與討論 43
4.1. 樣本背景資料之描述性統計分析 43
4.1.1. 北部空品區臭氧濃度分布 43
4.1.2. 臭氧事件日 48
4.1.3. 北部空品區臭氧平均分布情形 50
4.2. 相關性分析 60
4.3. 以逐步迴歸建立初步模型 65
4.4. 以多元線性迴歸建立臭氧之經驗模式 74
4.5. 經驗公式應用 81
第五章 結論跟建議 83
5.1. 結論 83
5.2. 建議 85
參考文獻 86
附錄一 北部空氣品質區行政區域戶口數 92


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