臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文主要包含兩個關於零售業產品定價的研究議題。在第一個研究議題中，我們針對廣為零售業者所採用的兩項保證¬，即退款保證(money-back guarantees)與最低價保證(low-price guarantees)，依據選擇權計價方法為其建構一個合理的訂價模式，而此兩項保證在零售市場實已為吸引消費者與增加競爭力的重要利器。此訂價模式將消費者的購後產品認知價值假設為一個隨時間變動的隨機過程，而將退款保證視為該隨機過程的一個或有請求權(contingent claim)；同理，我們也假設某特定商品在市場上最低價格在某一期間亦呈一個隨機過程，並將最低價保證視為另一個或有請求權。因此，上述二項保證即是廠商賦予消費者的兩項實質選擇權，過去的文獻多僅針對特定一項選擇權進行探討，而本研究主要特點之一，即是建構一個同時考慮此二項實質選擇權的訂價模式，由於此二項選擇權具有互斥的關係，因而增加了模型的困難度與趣味性。

根據此訂價模式，我們探討了若干關於退款保證與最低價保證的最適訂價策略，結果亦顯示此二項保證(或實質選擇權)存在一個抵換關係，因此管理者在訂定產品價格時須了解二者間關係以創造買賣雙方互利的情況。本模型可協助零售業者從消費者觀點評估某特定商品其退款保證與最低價保證之價值，同時釐清二者之價值如何相互影響。除了理論模型的推導，我們也利用數值分析呈現各種情境，並藉由分析結果提供若干關於此二項保證最適訂價所引申之管理意涵。

關於第二個研究議題，我們旨在探討在消費者的首次購買中所隱含的實質選擇權價值，換言之，此研究試圖建構一個評價模式以估算上述的實質選擇權價值。對消費者而言，由於首次購買通常具有產品認知價值的高度不確定性，根據選擇權價值之特性：不確定性愈高，其價值愈大，因此，首次購買所隱含的實質選擇權價值應是不可忽略而值得探討的。對於消費者的首次購買，我們考慮了隱含其中的兩項實質選擇權：其一為消費者可能因購後滿意而再次購買的權利，此權利可視為一項買權；另一為在前一研究中已提及的退款保證，此保證則可視為一項賣權。因此，我們將此二項實質選擇權分別稱為再次購買買權(repeat-purchase call option)與退款保證賣權(Money-Back Guarantee put option)。由於此二項選擇權也具有彼此互斥的關係，故二者結合之價值估算並非簡單相加可得，因而增加了模型的挑戰性與趣味性。

此一研究所建構之評價模型說明了上述二項實質選擇權如何為消費者增加價值，以及二者如何交互影響。同樣的，除了理論模型之建構，我們亦根據各種可能之情境進行數值分析，以具體呈現各種因素對不同選擇權價值的影響。透過評價模型與數值分析結果，可更了解消費者在首次購買時所獲致的認知價值，並進而可幫助管理者改善其產品訂價決策，尤其當廠商進入新市場或開發新產品時，此模型亦能適用。

This dissertation contains two essays on product pricing in retailing market. In the first essay, we establish a real option pricing model for the valuation of both money-back guarantees (MBGs) and low-price guarantees (LPGs) which have been regarded as increasingly powerful tools for attracting consumers and gaining competitive edges in the marketplace. The model proposes the consumers’ perceived product value post purchase as a stochastic process and then regards an MBG as a contingent claim on the process. In the same manner, we also treat an LPG as a contingent claim with all possible outcomes of advertised-price elsewhere. Therefore, both MBGs and LPGs would be regarded as real options. In contrast to other studies merely dealing with one of the two options, the model jointly considers the MBG and LPG put options, in which particularly there’s a mutual exclusion relationship between both options, thereby constituting an interesting pricing issue.
By the model, the optimal pricing strategies for MBGs and LPGs for various market conditions are discussed. The results indicate that both MBG and LPG option values have a tradeoff relation and thus managers need to carefully utilize those consumers’ risk-reduction mechanisms to create a win-win situation with the optimal pricing strategies. Our pricing model can help retailers evaluate the option values of MBGs and LPGs, and clarifies the relationship between both option values. In addition to model derivation, we also conduct numerical analyses to demonstrate various scenarios and provide management implications for retailer’s product pricing about MBGs and LPGs.
The second essay investigates the real-option value contained in consumers'' initial purchase. In this study, we establish a pricing model for those real-option values. Due to high uncertainty of perceived value for initially-purchased products, the real-option values contained in those products would be substantial, and thus should not be ignored. We fairly evaluate the two real options about consumer’s initial purchase, namely, the repeat-purchase call option and the Money-Back Guarantee put option. The mutually exclusive relationship between the two options leads to an interesting valuation issue as well. When applied to products involving two types of risks, that is, valuation risk and breakage risk, the mutual exclusion of the two options makes model calibration rather challenging.
This model expresses how these real options can create added-value for consumers and their interaction effects. In addition to derivation of the valuation model, we also conduct numerical analyses to illustrate effects of several factors on the options value. The study can broaden the understanding of consumers’ perceived value for the initial purchases, and thereby can help management to improve product-pricing decision making, especially for the case of developing a new product or a new market.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………1

Chapter 2 Valuation of MBGs and LPGs from a Consumer-based Perspective...……………………………………………………………5
2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………5
2.2 The valuation model ………………………………………………………….13
2.2.1 Post-purchase product value as a stochastic process …………………..13
2.2.2 Consumer’s expected benefit without MBG …………………………..15
2.2.3 Consumer’s expected benefit with MBG …………...............................17
2.2.4 Adding LPG on MBG …………………………………………………19
2.3 Optimal pricing for MBG and LPG ………………………………………….23
2.3.1 The role of perceived product risk …………………………………….23
2.3.2 Optimal pricing under a certain value offering policy ………………...28
2.3.3 Price-reduction strategy with MBG for entering another market segment……………………………………………………………...…30
2.3.4 Pricing for the Combination of MBG and LPG ………………...……..32
2.3.5 Estimating implied volatilities ………………………………………....37
2.4 Management implications …………………………………………………….41

Chapter 3 Real-Options Value Contained in Consumers'' Initial Purchase ….49
3.1 Introduction …………………………………………………………………..49
3.2 The Valuation Framework ………………………………………………...….53
3.2.1 Set-up of post-purchase perceived product value ……………...………53
3.2.2 Real options embedded in initial purchase ………………………….…57
3.2.2.1 Repeat-purchase call option ………………………...…………57
3.2.2.2 MBG put option …………………………………………….…58
3.2.2.3 Combination of both options ………………………………….61
3.3 Illustrative Examples …………………………………………………………62
3.3.1 Simulation analyses ……………………………………………………62
3.3.2 General discussion ……………………………………………………..67
3.4 Managerial Implications for Pricing Decisions ………………………...…….70

Chapter 4 Conclusions ………………………………………………...…………73
Appendixes..…………………………………………………………………………77
References …………………………………………………………………………..79






 
List of Figures


Figure 1a The Expected Net Benefit with MBG (ENB*) vs. Risk Levels (σ) for Relative Highly Risk-Averse Case…………………….…………...26
Figure 1b The Expected Net Benefit with MBG (ENB*) vs. Risk Levels (σ) for Relative Lowly Risk-Averse Case……………………….…………26
Figure 2a The Expected Net Benefit with MBG (ENB*) vs. Price Levels (p) for High Risk Level Case………………………………………………30
Figure 2b The Expected Net Benefit with MBG (ENB*) vs. Price Levels (p) for Low Risk Level Case……………………………………………….30
Figure 3a The Expected Net Benefit with MBG and LPG (ENB**) in the High Price Level Case for Volatility Parameters (σ & σp)……….….……34
Figure 3b The Expected Net Benefit with MBG and LPG (ENB**) in the Low Price Level Case for Volatility Parameters (σ & σp)…….…....….…35
Figure 4a The Expected Net Benefit with MBG and LPG (ENB**) in the High Return Cost Case for Volatility Parameters (σ & σp)……...….….…37
Figure 4b The Expected Net Benefit with MBG and LPG (ENB**) in the Low Return Cost Case for Volatility Parameters (σ & σp)………...…..…37
Figure 5a The product value with different real-options types for various valuation risk levels…………………………………………………..….……63
Figure 5b The value of different types real-options for various valuation risk levels………………………………………………………...………63
Figure 6a The product value with different real-options types for various breakage risk levels………………………………………………….……..….64
Figure 6b The value of different types real-options for various breakage risk levels……………………………………………………….……..…64
Figure 7a Product value with different real-options types for various use durations……………………………………………………….……65
Figure 7b The value of different types real-options for various use durations…………………………………………………………….65
Figure 8a Product value with different real-options types for various price levels……………………………………………………………...…66
Figure 8b The value of different types of real options for various price levels…………………………………………………………...……66

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