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研究生:郭國辰
研究生(外文):Kuo-Chen Kuo
論文名稱:果乾產業在產能限制下以報童模式解析最佳生產量
論文名稱(外文):The Newsvendor Problem with Capacity Constraint in Dried Fruits Industry
指導教授:武為棣武為棣引用關係
指導教授(外文):Wei-Di Wu
口試委員:白凢芸葉子明
口試委員(外文):Fan-Yun PaiTzu-Ming Yeh
口試日期:2016-06-29
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立中興大學
系所名稱:行銷學系所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:行銷與流通學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:37
中文關鍵詞:報童模式產能配置果乾產業
外文關鍵詞:Newsvendor modelCapacity allocationDried fruits industry
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果乾產業主要收入來源(1)生產自有產品並自行販售(2)為農夫或其他業者代工生產產品並收取費用,因為果乾產業產季為鮮果產季,在鮮果產季期間,加工廠會以最大產能生產自有產品與代工產品,產能利用的方式據此可分為兩種途徑,基於以上因由以及需求面的不確定性,行之有效的產能配置向為果乾產業中一大難題。

本研究標的為果乾產業之產能規劃,利用報童模式將果乾產業所遇到的問題以數學模式加以表達以利演繹分析,當中並考量產業特性,利用果乾業者產季總期望利潤極大化之目標以求解最適生產量,供業者執行營運決策時參循。本研究並使用數值範例以闡述本研究主題的意義及對模型做一驗證,最後對重要參數進行敏感度分析,分析重要參數對於總期望利潤之影響,以瞭解外部環境因子對於決策模式的確切影響,並提出結論與建議供後續研究及實務應用參考。


Two major sources of income in dried fruit industry are (1) self-produce and self-trade, or (2) original design manufacturing (ODM) for other vendors. With the consideration that dried fruit producing season corresponds to growing season, subcontracting factory often needs to ration the limited capacity for both the self-product and ODM products simultaneously during the growing season. However, two distinguished capacity allocation options have led the development of an efficient capacity planning become relatively difficult in dried fruit industry.

The objective of this study is to build a capacity plan for a dried fruit manufacturer. Firstly, Newsvendor model was utilized to (1) determine the characteristic of dried fruit industry, (2) numerically identify the potential problem within the industry, (3) and to further ascertain the optimal order quantity upon which the optimal total expected profit can be achieved. Secondly, in order to validate and illustrate the effect of the model, numerical examples and sensitivity analysis were conducted. Additionally, with previous regards, conclusion and managerial insights are also provided for the dried fruits industry.

1、緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 3
1.3研究流程 4
2、文獻探討 5
2.1產能規劃與脫水加工技術 5
2.2報童模式 7
3、模型建構 9
3.1符號設定與模型基本假設 9
3.2各成本項目說明 11
3.2.1期望收益項目 11
3.2.2期望成本項目 11
3.3模型建構 12
4、數值分析 16
4.1情境一、預期原物料產量減少 17
4.2情境二、預期原物料產量過剩 19
4.3數值分析小結 21
5、敏感度分析 23
5.1各參數變異下之生產量敏感度分析 24
5.2各參數變異下之期望利潤敏感度分析 28
5.3生產量與期望利潤之間關係 32
6、研究結論、限制與建議 34
6.1研究結論 34
6.2研究限制與建議 36
參考文獻 37




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E.A. Silver, D.F. Pyke, and R. Peterson. (1998). Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling. Wiley, NY.
Khouja, M. (1999). The single-period (news-vendor) problem: literature review and suggestions for future research. Omega, 27(5), 537-553.
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Van Mieghem, J. A. (2003). Commissioned paper: Capacity management, investment, and hedging: Review and recent developments. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 5(4), 269-302.
Wu, M., Zhu, S. X., & Teunter, R. H. (2013). Newsvendor problem with random shortage cost under a risk criterion. International Journal of Production Economics, 145(2), 790-798.
Zhang, B. (2012). Multi-tier binary solution method for multi-product newsvendor problem with multiple constraints. European Journal of Operational Research, 218(2), 426-434.
Zhang, B., & Hua, Z. (2010). A portfolio approach to multi-product newsboy problem with budget constraint. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 58(4), 759-765.
陳盈方. (2013). 常見之水果脫水加工技術介紹. 臺東區農業專訊(86), 14-17.
行政院農業委員會統計室. (2015). 中華民國104年農產貿易統計要覽, 30-31.
林怡如、李穎宏和陳正敏. (2015). 果乾加工產品介紹. 高雄區農業專訊(94), 24-25.





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