臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

中文摘要

在許多農業研究中，植物罹病度的調查常扮演重要之角色，例如預測作物的產量損失、比較處理間效應、評估作物遺傳抗病性、病害疫情的監測與預報等；植物育種專家與病理學家常使用目視評估來獲取這些植物罹病度的量化病害面積數據，但此類型評估值容易產生誤差。本研究為當考慮評估發生誤差時，探究不同的目視評估方法對於處理間效應之影響，其中使用統合分析的概念來計算其高低估之比例；本研究所採用之田間資料為柑橘潰瘍病之資料，共有28位評估者在美國佛羅里達州南部田區，隨機抽取200片葡萄柚葉子，進行一次性罹病葉之評估。從這結果發現評估誤差是影響結果最關鍵之原因，即準確的評估者檢定力表現最好，其次為百分之百絕對高估的評估者，而有部分高估趨勢的評估者檢定力表現最差，但評估方法間的檢定力則差別不大；只有在罹病度20%時，準確的評估者使用Horsfall-Barratt scale比起其他方法檢定力來得低，且發現在低罹病度時(1% 與5%)，10%等距的分級方式明顯有較差的檢定力，相信此研究結果將對植物病害評估工作之執行上有所助益。

Abstract

The data of plant disease severity is widely used in many agricultural studies, such as predicting yield loss, comparing treatments, assessing crop germplasm for disease resistance, and monitoring and forecasting of disease outbreaks. Visual estimation of disease severity as a proportion of area often used in studies of plant pathogy and plant breeding; however, it is error prone. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of rating bias and assessment scale method on comparing treatments. In order to estimate the effect of overestimation on the real situation, Meta-Analysis method was employed to combine the performance of different raters. The data used in the study was investigated on citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri) from grapefruit trees in south Florida in the USA. Twenty-eight raters joined the study and all 200 leaves assessed for each rater. From the results of the study, the power of the hypothesis tests (comparing treatments) using unbiased estimates was most great and the next better is the power of absolutely overestimated raters. The power of partially overestimated raters are the worst. Moreover, there are little difference among different assessment methods. Only in severity of 20% was the power of the hypothesis using H-B inferior to the other methods. Also, there was lower power for low actual severities in linear 10% scale. Finally, the results of this study could be helpful in severity assessment of plant diseases.

目次
中文摘要......................................i
Abstract....................................ii
一、 緒論.....................................1
(一) 研究動機與目的............................1
(二) 文獻回顧.................................5
二、 材料與方法...............................14
(一) 病害數據與評估方式介紹....................14
1. 受柑橘潰瘍病感染的葉片......................14
2. 罹病度的真實値與估計値......................15
3. 植物病害評估方式...........................16
(二) 模擬假設檢定.............................17
(三) 一致性相關係數...........................19
(四) 統合分析................................21
1. 固定效應模型..............................21
2. 隨機效應模型..............................23
(五) 模擬數據之特性..........................26
三、 研究結果................................30
(一) 絕對高估與不偏情況下¬─模擬假設檢定之結果...30
(二) 高低估比例與絕對誤差.....................32
(三) 統合分析結果............................33
(四) 部分高估情況下─模擬假設檢定之結果.........34
四、 討論...................................37
(一) 綜合論述...............................37
(二) 絕對高估與部分高估之比較.................39
(三) 偏差效應之影響..........................39
(四) 評估方式之影響..........................40
(五) 評估方式與偏差效應兩者影響程度之比較.......41
(六) 未來研究方向............................41
五、 參考文獻................................43
圖表….......................................48

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