臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以1990到2015年美國11檔教育型類股作為樣本，針對以下兩點進行探討：一、探討在景氣循環下美國教育類股股價報酬夏普指數的表現情況。二、對於在景氣處於擴張期（expansion）與收縮期（contraction）反覆循環下，美國教育型類股報酬對應在景氣循環下的的表現，所以本研究使用股價報酬率當作應變數，國內生產總值(Gross Domestic Product, GDP)、失業率以及景氣循環指數(National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER)總共三項變數做為自變數建立回歸模型，研究每一家公司對於個別的總體經濟指標關係如何。結果顯示，投資美國教育型類股依據景氣循環指標NBER的分類下，在擴張期以及收縮期時期投資教育型類股，其績效表現並無明顯的差異。可能原因為，營利型教育機構學費不斷調漲，加上貸款學費給信用不佳的學生，一方面減少了學生就學的意願，一方面又因為學費貸款信用違約風險使的獲利減少，兩方面的衝擊下再加上整個總體金融環境的不確定感，所以影響了其公司的績效表現。

In this study, 1990 to 2015, the United States 11 Profile Educational stocks as samples are discussed for the following two points: First, investigate the Sharpe Index of the US education stocks were paid in cyclical. Second, what is the performance of US education stock in the business cycle between expansion and contraction. So in this study as a strain rate of return on the stock numbers, domestic production GDP (gross Domestic Product, GDP), unemployment and cyclical index (National Bureau of economic Research, NBER) a total of three variables as independent variable regression model to study what is the relationship between each company and the index of macroeconomics. The results show, according to the following investment NBER business cycle indicators classification, as well as in the expansion of investment in education type stocks systolic period, their performance did not show significant differences between the United States Educational stocks. The growing up of tuition and the profit-education loan the tuition to the student who do not has the higher credit risk. So the two situations reduce the willing of student who want to go to the school and also reduce the benefit because of company loan the tuition to the student who has higher credit default risk. The impact of these two situations plus the bad performance of the economy makes the bad performance of the education companies.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構與流程 2
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 景氣循環相關文獻 4
第二節 總體指數與股價表現相關文獻 5
第三章 資料與研究方法 6
第一節 資料來源與研究架構 6
第二節 夏普指數 10
第三節 回歸模型分析 11
第四章 實證結果 13
第一節 敘述統計量 13
第二節 實證分析 13
第五章 結論

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張瑞珍，2009，不同景氣循環下之股價影響因素，國立高雄第一科技大學金融
營運所。


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