臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

從口蹄疫疫區輸出偶蹄類動物與其產品至口蹄疫非疫區為一可能引入口蹄疫病毒之路徑。金門於2015年爆發兩起牛隻口蹄疫案例，而臺灣本島自2013年起已無口蹄疫病例發生，因應於此，本研究建構一量化風險評估模式，進而計算從金門輸出去骨生牛肉至台灣本島而引入口蹄疫病毒之風險。此模式建基於金門之口蹄疫盛行率、疾病監測系統與檢疫制度之有效性、運輸動物過程中之汙染或感染、屠前與屠後檢查、屠宰過程中之交叉汙染與牛肉運輸過程中之口蹄疫病毒存活。經此量化風險評估模式分析後之結果顯示，依現行口蹄疫之防疫措施下，從金門輸出去骨牛肉至台灣本島而引入口蹄疫病毒之風險值為1.63×10-4（第95分位數為5.02×10-4），風險雖低，但仍屬於不可忽略之風險。敏感度分析指出，牛隻於運輸過程中意外汙染或感染口蹄疫病毒對最終風險最具影響力。進一步以假設情境找出能夠將最終風險降低至不可接受風險（10-6）以下之最有效管控措施，結果顯示當車輛與牛隻消毒工作執行有效時（使動物運輸過程中，汙染或感染口蹄疫病毒風險設定值由原最有可能值10-4降至10-6），最終口蹄疫病毒引入風險之中位數為8.59×10-7（第95分位數為1.17×10-6）。此外，牛肉熟成是另一有效管控措施，可將最終口蹄疫病毒引入風險降低至8.31×10-261（第95分位數為9.90×10-108），為可忽略風險。未來仍需透過成本效益分析以找出能控制口蹄疫病毒從疫區引入之最實際方法。

Importation of cloven-hoofed animals or their products from a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) -infected zone is considered as a potential route of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) introduction to a FMD-free zone. Two FMD-infected cattle were identified in Kinmen in 2015 and there have been no FMD cases in Taiwan Main Island since 2013. Therefore, this study constructed a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the risk of FMDV introduction through deboned beef from Kinmen to Taiwan Main Island. The model considered prevalence of FMD in Kinmen, effectiveness of the surveillance system and quarantine, contamination or infection while transporting animals, ante-mortem and post-mortem inspections, cross-contamination during slaughtering and survival of FMDV during beef transportation. The result of the risk assessment model indicated that under the current strategies for FMD control, the risk of FMDV introduction through deboned beef importation from Kinmen to Taiwan Main Island was 1.63×10-4 (the 95th percentile value: 5.02×10-4), a low but non-negligible risk. Sensitivity analysis showed that a cattle accidentally contaminated or infected with FMDV during transportation was the most influential factor on the estimated risk. What-if scenarios were further applied to identify the most effective measure to limit the risk of FMDV introduction to the acceptable level (10-6). When disinfecting vehicles and cattle was conducted effectively (minimizing the risk of acquiring FMDV during transportation from the most-likely value of 10-4 to 10-6), the median of the final risk was 8.59×10-7 (the 95th percentile value: 1.17×10-6). Moreover, beef maturation could reduce the final risk to 8.31×10-261 (the 95th percentile value: 9.90×10-108), a negligible risk. Further cost-benefit analysis will need to be conducted to find the most practical way to control FMDV introduction from an infected zone.

摘要....................................................................................................................................i
Abstract.............................................................................................................................ii
Contents............................................................................................................................iii
List of Tables....................................................................................................................vi
List of Figures.................................................................................................................vii
List of Abbreviations......................................................................................................viii
Chapter 1 Introduction…………................................................................................1
Chapter 2 Literature Review.......................................................................................2
2.1. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)....................................................................................2
2.1.1. Etiology...............................................................................................................2
2.1.2. Serotypes and topotypes......................................................................................3
2.1.3. Susceptible species..............................................................................................4
2.1.4. Transmission.......................................................................................................5
2.1.5. Incubation period................................................................................................6
2.1.6. Clinical signs and lesions....................................................................................7
2.1.7. Carriers................................................................................................................8
2.1.8. Diagnosis.............................................................................................................9
2.1.9. Control and prevention......................................................................................10
2.2. Risk analysis...............................................................................................................12
2.2.1. Import risk assessment......................................................................................13
2.2.2. Components of import risk assessment.............................................................13
2.2.3. Methodology of import risk assessment...........................................................14
2.3. FMDV associated with meat trade..............................................................................14
2.3.1. O.I.E. recommendations................................................................……………15
2.3.2. FMDV survival and deboned beef................................................................16
2.3.3. Pork, sheep meat and goat meat........................................................................17
2.4. FMD in Kinmen Island...............................................................................................18
2.4.1. Epidemics of FMDV serotype O in 1999 and 2012..........................................18
2.4.2. Epidemic of FMDV serotype A in 2015...........................................................19
Chapter 3 Materials and Methods…...............................................................................21
3.1. Background and model construction...........................................................................21
3.2. Model calculation........................................................................................................22
3.2.1. Probability of a FMDV-infected cattle from any herd in Kinmen (p1)............22
3.2.2. Sensitivity of detecting a FMDV-infected cattle by the surveillance system and quarantine (p2)................................................................................................23
3.2.3. Probability of a cattle contaminated or infected with FMDV during transportation (p3)...........................................................................................25
3.2.4. Sensitivity of ante-mortem inspection for FMDV infection (p4 and p5)..........26
3.2.5. Cross-contamination risk during slaughtering..................................................27
3.2.6. Sensitivity of post-mortem inspection for FMDV infection (p6).....................28
3.2.7. Survival probability of FMDV in beef during transportation (p7)...................28
3.2.8. Overall risk of FMDV introduction through deboned beef importation from
Kinmen to Taiwan Main Island (P).................................................................29
3.2.9. Total number of consignments in a year (n)......................................................29
3.2.10. Annual risk of at least one consignment carrying FMDV (P_annual)...........30
3.3. Output simulations......................................................................................................30
3.4. Sensitivity analysis......................................................................................................30
3.5. What-if scenarios........................................................................................................30
3.5.1. Role of decontamination before transporting animals to a slaughterhouse......31
3.5.2. Cross-contamination control during slaughtering………………………….…31
3.5.3. Maturation as an option to mitigate the import risk…………..………………31
3.5.4. Different setting of FMD prevalences in Kinmen…………..……………….33
Chapter 4 Results........................................................................................................34
4.1. Overall risk of FMDV introduction through deboned beef importation from Kinmen to Taiwan Main Island (P)...........................................................................................34
4.2. Annual risk of at least one consignment carrying FMDV (P_annual).......................34
4.3. Sensitivity analysis......................................................................................................34
4.4. What-if scenarios........................................................................................................35
4.4.1. Role of decontamination before transporting animals to a slaughterhouse......35
4.4.2. Cross-contamination control during slaughtering.............................................35
4.4.3. Maturation as an option to mitigate the import risk..........................................35
4.4.4. Different setting of assumed FMD cases in Kinmen........................................36
4.5. Effect of p_surv and t1 on P.......................................................................................36
Chapter 5 Discussions.................................................................................................37
5.1. Model construction.......................................................................................................37
5.2. Disinfection methods before transporting animals.......................................................38
5.3. FMDV survival.............................................................................................................39
5.4. Cross-contamination.....................................................................................................40
5.5. Surveillance system and quarantine..............................................................................41
5.6. Prevalence of FMD in Kinmen in 2015........................................................................41
5.7. Carriers..........................................................................................................................41
5.8. Vaccine and vaccination................................................................................................42
Chapter 6 Conclusions...............................................................................................44
References.......................................................................................................................59

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