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研究生:陳氏秋賢
研究生(外文):TRAN, HIEN THI THU
論文名稱:氣候對所得影響及颱風損失模型研究:以越南為例
論文名稱(外文):The assessment of typhoon losses and the income effects of weather variability in Vietnam
指導教授:郭彥廉郭彥廉引用關係
指導教授(外文):Kuo, Yen-lien
口試委員:郭振民蔡群立張瓊婷
口試委員(外文):Chen-min KuoChun-Li TsaiChang Chiung-Ting
口試日期:2016-06-22
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程
學門:自然科學學門
學類:其他自然科學學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:英文
論文頁數:89
外文關鍵詞:typhoon lossweather variabilityincome effect
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This paper assesses the typhoon losses and income effect of weather variability in Vietnam by using multi-variable regression method with panel data. The income models show that extremely hot weather and widespread rains reduce sector income. The results also indicate that widespread rains decrease income in all five income quintiles. The results imply that the government needs to have financial policies in place that help sectors and people prevent and mitigate damages caused by extremely hot weather and widespread rains. The results indicate that typhoons in Vietnam often cause widespread flooding that damage not only properties but also human losses. The results show the coastal region of Ninh Thuan – Ca Mau and The Mekong River Delta are vulnerable to typhoons. The government needs to focus effective support policies to help people in two regions to mitigate the effect of typhoons. In addition, the government and insurance enterprises can offer weather insurance against weather variability, especially natural hazard insurance, such as typhoon insurance, flooding insurance, etc.
ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II
TABLE OF CONTENTS III
LIST OF TABLES V
LIST OF FIGURES VI
LIST OF ACRONYMS VII
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research motivation 1
1.2 Research objectives 3
1.3 Framework of study 4
4.2 The model of typhoon losses 4
5.2 Future research 4
1.4 Background of Vietnam. 5
1.4.1Geography of Vietnam 5
1.4.2 The weather in Vietnam 7
1.4.3 Typhoons in Vietnam 10
1.4.4 The socio-economic situation of Vietnam 14
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 17
2.1 The assessment of typhoon losses 17
2.2 Economic effects of weather variability 18
2.3 Income 22
2.4 Summary 23
CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 24
3.1 Empirical models 24
3.1.1 The models of weather variability on income 24
3.1.2 The models of typhoon losses 28
3.2 Data 28
3.2.1 Income data 28
3.2.2 Weather data 30
3.2.3 Typhoon loss data 34
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 46
4.1 The models of weather variability effects on income 46
4.1.1 The effect of weather variability on income in sectors 47
4.1.2 The effect of weather variability on income quintiles 50
4.2 The model of typhoon losses 52
4.2.1 Human loss model 53
4.2.2 House damage model 55
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 59
5.1. Conclusion and suggestions 59
5.2. Future research 61
REFERENCES 62
APPENDIXES 65
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N. Mahmood, B. Ahmad, S. K. Hassan, & Bakhsh. (2012). Impact of Temperature and Precipitation on Rice Productivity in Rice - Wheat Cropping System of Punjab Province. Animal and Plant Sciences, 22(3), 993-997.
M. Masozera, M. Bailey, & C. Kerchner. (2007). Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: A case study of New Orleans. Ecological Economics, 63(299-306).
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I. Noy, & T. B. Vu. (2009). The economics of natural disasters in developing country: The case of Vietnam. Journal of Asian Economics, 21, 345-354.
H. Toya, & M. Skidmore. (2007). Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters. Economic Letters, 94, 20-25.
Ogle. B, & Phuc. B.H.N. (1997). Sustaninable intensive livestock-based system Vietnam. IRD Current, 14, 16-22.
D. V. Tran. (2011). Climate change and it impact on agriculture in Vietnam. ISSAAS, 17, 17-21.
DMC. www.dmc.gov.vn. Disaster management center
UN-SPIDER. www.un-spider.org. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs – Space-based information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response
CCFSC. www.ccfsc.gov.vn. Central Committee for Flood and Strom Control
NCHMF. www.nchmf.gov.vn. National Center for Hydro – Meteorological forecasting
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