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研究生:王奕翔
研究生(外文):Wang,Yi Xiang
論文名稱:職業球員能力之價值衡量 - 以 MLB 為例
論文名稱(外文):Evaluating Ability of Baseball Players: Evidence From Major League Baseball
指導教授:林世昌林世昌引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lin, Eric S.
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立清華大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
學門:社會及行為科學學門
學類:經濟學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2016
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:41
中文關鍵詞:棒球進階數據追蹤資料二因子固定效果追蹤資料分量迴歸
外文關鍵詞:Weighted Runs Created plusDefensive Runs Above AveragePanel data two-way fixed effect modelRegression quantiles for panel data
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:642
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:0
職業球員的能力價值衡量一直是研究中的議題,本文蒐集了 2005 至 2014 共十年,十一個守備位置裡除去投手、捕手以及指定打擊的美國職棒大聯盟 (Major League Baseball, 簡稱 MLB) 球員表現數據,以及這十年間每年每隊勝率、團隊表現資料,主要將分成三部分來分析該議題。

第一部分利用追蹤資料 (panel data) 的固定效果 (fixed effect) 設定估計薪資方程式,並把個體差異效果 (individual-specific effect) 以及時間差異效果 (time-specific effect) 都考量在模型內。在把野手的表現粗分為攻擊與守備能力兩大部分下,發現僅有游擊手的守備能力是顯著有價值的。其他六個守備位置野手的薪資,幾乎皆只與其攻擊能力有正向相關,驗證了 MLB 球員市場中,攻擊比守備更有價值的刻板印象。

第二部分也是以固定效果的設定,檢視團隊勝率與團隊表現的關係,結果顯示投手的能力對於球隊的勝負貢獻最大,其次是野手的攻擊能力,最後才是守備能力,故可以粗略推斷在勞動市場中,攻擊能力比守備能力更有價值是合理的現象。

最後,我們利用 Koenker (2004) 之追蹤資料分量迴歸 (panel quantile regression) 配適固定效果來衡量不同分量下的薪資方程式,發現隨著薪資分量的上升,守備價值幾乎一直都不顯著,而攻擊能力以及球員之攻擊生涯紀錄則存在越來越有價值的趨勢。
The value of Major League Baseball players has long been viewed as the most controversial issue. In order to analyze the relationship between players' abilities and their salaries, list of all Major League Baseball players excluding pitchers, catchers and designated hitters in all games during 2005 and 2014 were collected. The winning percentages and team-level performance figures during this period were also collected.

The approach was divided into three parts. First, the panel data two-way fixed effect model, considered individual-specific effect and time-specific effect simultaneously, was used to estimate the salary equation. By roughly dividing the fielders' performance into aggressive ability and fielding ability, we can dig out that only the shortstops' fielding ability is significantly valuable while almost every fielder's aggressive ability is all significantly valuable. Therefore, we can verify the stereotype about "Bat is more valuable than gloves for baseball players."

Secondly, the same methodology was used to estimate the relationship between winning percentage and team performance.It was found that the pitcher's ability contributes the most, followed by aggressive ability, and the fielding ability in the last place. So we can treat the stereotype mentioned earlier as a reasonable phenomenon.

The last method applied was the panel quantile regression with fixed effect, which was proposed in Koenker (2004), to estimate the salary equations in different quantiles of salary. We found that the fielding abilities were almost insignificant in every quantile we concerned while the values of aggressive ability and historical aggressive ability increase with the quantile ascend.
1.緒論 1

2.文獻回顧 3
2.1.薪資方程式相關文獻 3
2.2.團隊績效相關文獻 6

3.資料與變數 7
3.1.資料 7
3.2.變數敘述 9
3.2.1.薪資方程式模型 9
3.2.2.團隊績效模型 14

4.實證方法 14
4.1.追蹤資料模型 14
4.2.追蹤資料分量迴歸 18

5.實證結果 20
5.1.薪資方程式 20
5.2.團隊勝率估計 22
5.3.應用分量迴歸於薪資方程式 22
5.4.穩健性測試 23

6.結論與研究限制 24

圖 29-32

表 32-41


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