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研究生:李宗仁
研究生(外文):Lee, Tsung-Jen
論文名稱:應用模糊多準則決策方法於船舶SOx排放控制技術評選之研究
論文名稱(外文):A Study on Applying Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Selecting Shipping SOx Emission Control Technologies.
指導教授:林泰誠林泰誠引用關係
指導教授(外文):Lirn, Taih-Cherng
口試委員:劉仲矩余坤東
口試委員(外文):Liu, Chung-ChuYe, Kung-Don
口試日期:2016-06-29
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺灣海洋大學
系所名稱:航運管理學系
學門:運輸服務學門
學類:運輸管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2015
畢業學年度:104
語文別:中文
論文頁數:103
中文關鍵詞:MARPOL Annex VIScrubberLNG層級分析法模糊語意變數
外文關鍵詞:MARPOL Annex VIScrubberLNGAHPLinguistic Variable
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  國際海事組織所頒布之防止船舶汙染附錄六規定船舶空氣汙染排放限制,其中針對船用燃油硫含量之限制使得船舶需要採取符合規範之燃油,尤其在歐美排放管制區內有更為嚴格之規範,由於低硫燃油供應、價格高昂等問題,歐美業者轉而尋求其他清潔替代方案,如安裝船舶廢氣洗滌系統或採用LNG,並已有良好之實證成效。在台灣目前較缺乏相關議題的研究文獻,當船用燃油硫含量之限制更為嚴苛以及鄰近國家設立更多排放管制區時,有必要建立客觀之船舶排放SOx控制技術選擇決策架構,調查船舶經營者對於技術選擇之偏好,以利於台灣船東以及港口單位提早準備。
  本研究蒐集相關文獻,探討分析出航商業者為了符合規範,主要技術選擇方案有以下三種:1. 轉換低硫燃油 2. 安裝船舶廢氣洗滌系統 3. 採用LNG作為海運燃料,然而三大方案均有其優缺點,因此本研究透過文獻回顧以及透過專家意見找出影響選擇因素,並結合層級分析法、模糊語意變數,以此建立船舶排放SOx控制技術選擇決策架構,並以問卷訪談船舶經營者之看法,並區分為散裝航商業者以及定期航商業者,以便分析雙方對於此項議題看法之差異。
  本研究結果顯示,「SOx減少程度」、「資本性支出」、「運營性支出」、「違反的懲罰程度」、「航線布置」為整體業者首要重視之因素,經由模糊多準則方法可以得知,業者均認為「轉換低硫燃油」在方案評比上表現最佳,尤其是在經濟層面之表現明顯優於其他方案,散裝與定航業者均認為目前來說採用LNG為較不可行之方案。
  我國航港單位可以透過本研究結果,積極準備低硫燃油之供應,推遲LNG作為海運燃料之計畫,並應改革現有船舶空氣汙染法規,以保護港區周遭免於船舶汙染之影響。

International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex VI issued by International Maritime Organization (IMO) formulated the ships emission limited. The restriction of marine fuel sulphur content leads to that vessels needs to switch to low sulphur fuel (LSF). Especially in the US & EU emission control areas (ECAs), vessels have to comply with more stringent regulation. Because of the supply of LSF still in doubt and the uncertainty of prices, operators turn to find other compliance alternative which had postivive empirical performance in reduction of SOx, for examples: install scrubber or use liquified natural gas (LNG) as marine fuel. In Taiwan, there is only few literatures concerned with this issue. When the limited of fuel sulphur content being tougher and our neighbor country established more emission control area. It’s necessary to establish objective shipping emission SOx control technologies selection decision model, and investigate shipping operators’ preference for supporting Taiwan shipowner and port authorities to make preparation early.
This research collect related literature and find there are three major compliance alternative: 1. Switch to the LSF 2. Install scrubber 3. Use LNG as marine fuel. However all of three alternative have their pros and cons. So here discover five dimensions and twelve criteria by literature review and expert advice. Here we combined with AHP and linguistic variable, in order to establish shipping emission SOx control technologies selection decision model. Through questionnaires, the arthor combined shipowners’ opinion, and divided into two groups: liner carrier and bulk carrier. In order to analze differences of the views between both carriers considered about this issue.
This empirical research result showed that carriers regarded the Reduction of SOx、Capital Expenditure、Operational Expenditure、Penalty of non-compliance、Period of ECA as most important subcriteria. The arthor use Fuzzy MCDM method and finds that the degree of Switch to the LFS’s overall satisfaction is better than other alternatives, obviously in the economic facet has best performance. Both of liner and bulk carriers considered that use LNG as marine fuel is not a feasible alternative currently.
Our port unit should actively preparing for the supply of low sulfur fuel, delayed the plan of LNG as marine fuel, and should reform the existing air pollution from ships and regulations to protect the harbor from the effects of pollution from ships around it.

謝辭......................................................I
摘要.....................................................II
Abstract................................................III
目錄.....................................................IV
表目錄...................................................VI
圖目錄..................................................VII
第一章 緒論............................................1
1.1 研究背景..............................................1
1.2 研究動機..............................................2
1.3 研究目的..............................................4
1.4 研究流程..............................................4
第二章 文獻回顧 .....................................6
2.1 船舶排放之廢氣及其對環境影響............................6
2.2 船舶空氣汙染排放控制規範................................8
2.2.1. 防止船舶汙染國際公約附則六 (MARPOL Annex VI).........8
2.2.2. 歐盟針對船舶燃料硫含量指令 (Directive 2012/33/EU)...10
2.2.3. 亞洲地區防止船舶排放規範............................11
2.2.3.1. 中國大陸........................................11
2.2.3.2. 香港............................................14
2.2.3.3. 新加坡..........................................15
2.3 船舶排放控制技術措施介紹...............................16
2.3.1 轉換低硫燃油........................................18
2.3.2 安裝船舶廢氣洗滌系統................................21
2.3.3 以LNG作為海運燃料...................................28
2.3.4 船舶SOX排放控制技術選擇影響準則......................36
2.4 小結 .............................................38
第三章 研究方法........................................39
3.1 層級分析法...........................................39
3.1.1. AHP目的...........................................39
3.1.2. 評估尺度..........................................39
3.1.3. AHP的進行步驟.....................................40
3.1.4. AHP的運算方法.....................................41
3.1.5. AHP的適用範圍.....................................43
3.2 模糊理論.............................................45
3.2.1. 模糊數與隸屬函數...................................45
3.2.2. 三角形模糊數(Triangular Fuzzy Number)..............45
3.2.3. 模糊數的運算.......................................46
3.2.4. 語意變數..........................................47
3.2.5. 模糊多準則決策方法.................................48
3.3 問卷設計.............................................51
3.3.1. 問卷準則問項.......................................51
3.3.2. 第一階段問卷設計...................................53
3.3.3. 第二階段問卷設計...................................53
第四章 實證分析 ....................................54
4.1 準則篩選.............................................54
4.2 AHP層級架構建立.......................................56
4.3 AHP問卷回收與分析.....................................58
4.3.1. 各層級影響準則權重計算.............................58
4.3.2. 整體層級影響準則分析...............................62
4.4 替選方案滿意度評估....................................64
4.4 散裝與定期航商業者差異分析.............................68
4.4.1. 散裝航商業者整體準則權重及替選方案滿意度評估分析......68
4.4.2. 定期航商業者整體準則權重及替選方案滿意度評估.........70
第五章 結論與建議......................................73
5.1 結論.................................................73
5.2 建議 .............................................75
參考文獻 .............................................78
附錄一 第一階段問卷.......................................86
附錄二 第二階段問卷.......................................91


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56.Schinas, O., & Stefanakos, C. N. (2014). Selecting technologies towards compliance with MARPOL Annex VI: The perspective of operators. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 28, 28-40.
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58.Stopford, M.,(1997). Maritime economics, second ed., London and New York: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
59.SUND energy(2015),Fuel prices and impact on LNG prices.
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三、參考網站

1.台灣國際造船股份有限公司:http://www2.csbcnet.com.tw/csr/Energy6.htm
2.空氣污染管制(遠洋船隻)(停泊期間所用燃料)規例》指南:http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/tc_chi/environmentinhk/air/prob_solutions/guide-air-pollution-control-ocean-going-vesselsfuel-berth-regulation.html
3.財團法人中國驗船中心,航運新聞摘要與翻譯:http://www.crclass.org/chinese/ccr-3/c2.html#
4.10 Reasons Why Ship Operators Should be Nervous About the 2015 ECA Regulations:https://maritimecyprus.com/2014/11/19/10-reasons-why-ship-operators-should-be-nervous-about-the-2015-eca-regulations/
5.American Clean Skies Foundation,Natural Gas for Marine Vessels: U.S. Market Opportunities. Available: http://www.cleanskies.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Marine_Vessels_Final_forweb.pdf
6.BG Group,BG Group and Keppel to fuel ships with LNG in Singapore:http://www.bg-group.com/~/tiles/?tiletype=news&id=1095
7.ClassNK原則認可液化天然氣燃料船設計概念:http://www.tssp.com.tw/news/shipping/201511/2015112302.htm
8.DNV,SOx reduction: http://www.dnv.pl/Binaries/5%20SOx%20reduction%20-%20class%20involvement_tcm144-536397.pdf
9.DNV•GL,LNG AS SHIP FUEL, The Future – Today: https://www.dnvgl.com/Images/LNG_report_2015-01_web_tcm8-13833.pdf
10.Imabari installs first SOx Scrubber onto bulk carrier:https://www.vesselfinder.com/news/5744-Imabari-installs-first-SOx-Scrubber-onto-bulk-carrier
11.Qatargas, Maersk and Shell Join Forces To Develop LNG As Marine Fuel:https://www.vesselfinder.com/news/5408-Qatargas-Maersk-and-Shell-Join-Forces-To-Develop-LNG-As-Marine-Fuel
12.Statoil,About LNG,Retrieved:Dec.15 2015: http://www.statoil.com/en/TechnologyInnovation/gas/LiquefiedNaturalGasLNG/Pages/AboutLiquefiedNaturalGas.aspx
13.Will Expanded Emission Control Areas Lead to Faster Adoption of LNG by Marine Vessels?:http://adi-analytics.com/2015/06/16/will-expanded-emission-control-areas-lead-to-faster-adoption-of-lng-by-marine-vessels/
14.World Bunker Prices: http://shipandbunker.com/prices

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