臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究探討大西洋延繩釣黃鰭鮪未來釣獲率及環境變化，整合台灣大西洋鮪延繩釣漁獲資料及海洋環境觀測資料，包含海表面溫度(SST)、海表面高度(SSH)、混合層深度(MLD)及淨初級生產力(NPP)，利用IPCC發布之未來情境資料模擬，建構大西洋黃鰭鮪釣獲率變動與環境因子之泛加成模式(GAM)，探討各情境下大西洋黃鰭鮪未來釣獲率趨勢與分布之變動。結果顯示各情境之環境因子對於黃鰭鮪釣獲率皆有顯著影響(檢定R2於RCP2.6情境為0.407、RCP4.5情境為0.411、RCP6.0情境為0.402及RCP8.5情境為0.410)，其中各情境皆以SST之影響程度最為明顯(>24 °C皆有顯著正相關)。大西洋各漁區不同情境預測至2050年時，黃鰭鮪平均釣獲率呈穩定至小幅上升(各漁區與2016年釣獲率相比，變化率介於-2.96 %~11.42 %)。未來釣獲率變化之空間分布方面，高黃鰭鮪釣獲率區域集中於20°S~20°N之熱帶海域，且高釣獲率區域會隨季節變化而有不同(第1季於幾內亞灣、第3季於美國東岸海域出現高釣獲率)。整體而言，預測至2050年黃鰭鮪釣獲率未受到氣候變遷而導致強烈變動，在未來有小幅上升情形。此外，區域性海域(幾內亞灣和美國東岸海域)預測未來漁場有擴張趨勢出現，推測此情形可能因水溫於未來有持續上升情形致使黃鰭鮪棲地分布產生擴張。

Impacts of climate change on the catch rate of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Atlantic longline were investigated in this study. Fishery data of the Taiwanese longline fleets and oceanic remote sensing environmental variables, as well as data from climate change models including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), mixed layer depth (MLD) and net primary productivity (NPP) were compiled and used to develop a generalized additive model (GAM). Various scenarios considered by IPCC were used to predict the catch rates of yellowfin in the Atlantic ocean. The results show that every environmental factors had significantly effect of yellowfin’s catch rate(The R-squared in the scenario of RCP2.6 was 0.407, RCP4.5 was 0.411, RCP6.0 was 0.402 and RCP8.5 was 0.410). Among them, SST impact were most obvious(Predict SST >24 °C at all scenarios were significant positive correlation). Under different scenarios in all fishing zone, the changes of yellowfin’s catch rate were primarily maintain stable and increased slightly to 2050(Compared with 2016, the average change rate of catches at all fishing zone were between -2.96 % to 11.42 %). In regard to catch rate distribution in the future, major yellowfin catch will still concentrate at 20°S~20°N tropical ocean, and the high catch rate zones will be vary with the change of seasons(Predict at the first quarter in gulf of Guinea and at the third quarter in east coast of United States had high catch rate). In general, predicted trends of yellowfin catch rate and distribution to 2050 were not strongly affected by climate change, and had increase slightly in the future. In addition, fishing grounds at the specific regions(gulf of Guinea and east coast of United States) will be predicted that appear the expansion trend in the future. And considered that rise in the oceanic temperature have caused yellowfin tuna’s habitat distribution expansion in the future.

摘要 I
Abstract II
目錄 III
表目錄 V
圖目錄 VI
附錄 IX
壹、前言 1
一、 全球氣候與未來情境之變遷 1
二、 氣候變化對鮪漁況影響之文獻回顧 3
三、 大西洋洋流與黃鰭鮪漁場 4
四、 研究動機與目的 5
貳、材料與方法 7
一、 資料蒐集 7
二、 作業漁區區分及漁船作業型態 8
三、 漁獲與環境資料之整合 9
四、 統計分析 10
五、 未來情境模擬 11
參、結果 12
一、 黃鰭鮪之時空分布及漁場特性 12
二、 GAM模式建構及釣獲率與環境因子之變動 13
三、 預測未來黃鰭鮪釣獲率之分布與變動 14
肆、討論與結論 19
一、 環境因子對黃鰭鮪釣獲率之影響 19
二、 大西洋黃鰭鮪漁場時空間之變動 20
三、 預測期間各情境釣獲率之震盪變異情形 21
四、 釣獲率受氣候變遷之趨勢 21
五、 大西洋延繩釣黃鰭鮪作業變遷及未來之不確定性 22
六、 結論 23
參考文獻 25

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