臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

企業評價是用來分析一間公司在過去隨著經濟和產業情勢不同的績效，以測量一間公司的股價內在價值及判斷該公司的表現是好是壞。在本論文中，以Vinamilk公司為例，分析 2012年至2015 年的合併報表及財務比率，判斷含營業活動、投資活動及籌資活動之經營效率，並使用現金流量法來測量 Vinamilk 公司的價值。因此，此篇論文可做為欲投資 Vinamilk 公司證券的依據。

Business valuation is used to analyze the performance of a company in the past along with the economic and industry situation to measuring the intrinsic value of stock price of that firm and determine how well the firm performance. In my thesis, I analyze the consolidated financial statement of Vinamilk from 2012 to 2015 and the financial ratio to determine how efficient Vinamilk performed it in all aspect about: operating activities, investing activities and financing activities. The discount cash flow model is used to measure the value of Vinamilk. Thereby, this is the reference for those who want to invest in Vinamilk security.

Chapter 1: Introduction............................................................................................................1
1.1 Background............................................................................................................1
1.1.1 Topic background.......................................................................................1
1.1.2 Company background................................................................................2
1.2 Research objectives................................................................................................4
1.3 Research question..................................................................................................5
1.4 Thesis structure......................................................................................................5
Chapter 2: Literature Review...................................................................................................6
2.1 Definition of business valuation............................................................................6
2.2 Who does business valuation?...............................................................................6
2.3 Business valuation process....................................................................................7
2.3.1 Business Analysis...................................................................................9
2.3.2 Accounting Analysis.............................................................................16
2.3.3 Financial Statement Analysis................................................................20
2.3.4 Forecasting............................................................................................24
2.3.5 Valuation...............................................................................................24
Chapter 3: Research Methodology and Data.........................................................................27
3.1 Research approach...............................................................................................27
3.2 Data collection method........................................................................................28
3.3 Data analysis methods..........................................................................................28
3.4 Quality of research...............................................................................................30
Chapter 4: Data Analysis Results and Discussion.................................................................31
4.1 Business Analysis.................................................................................................31
4.1.1 Industry Overview.........................................................................................31
4.1.2 Porter’s five forces analysis.....................................................................36
4.1.3 SWOT Analysis.......................................................................................37
4.2 Financial statement analysis...................................................................................41
4.2.1 The financial performance.......................................................................41
4.2.2 Financial ratios.........................................................................................44
4.3 Forecasting..............................................................................................................46
4.3.1 Revenue Growth......................................................................................46
4.3.2 Net revenue..............................................................................................48
4.3.3 Expenses..................................................................................................48
4.3.4 Financial income......................................................................................50
4.3.5 Financial expenses...................................................................................50
4.3.6 Change in working capital.......................................................................51
4.3.7 Depreciation.............................................................................................52
4.3.8 Capital expenditure..................................................................................53
4.4 Valuation................................................................................................................53
4.4.1 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)..........................................53
4.4.2 Free Cash Flow........................................................................................57
4.4.3 Terminal value.........................................................................................57
4.4.4 Firm value................................................................................................58
4.5 Sensitivity Analysis................................................................................................58
Chapter 5: Conclusions.............................................................................................................60
5.1 Summary of finding................................................................................................60
5.2 Recommendation to Vinamilk................................................................................61
5.3 Limitation of the research.......................................................................................62
References................................................................................................................................64
Appendices...............................................................................................................................66
Appendix 1: Balance sheet...........................................................................................66
Appendix 2: Income statement.....................................................................................69
Appendix 3: Cash Flow Statement...............................................................................70
Appendix 4: Beta calculation.......................................................................................73
Appendix 5: Historical Analysis, Initial Free Cash Flow Forecast, and Valuation of Vinamilk.......................................................................................................................74

References
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Krishna G.Palepu, Paul Healy, Vic Bernard, Erik Peek (2007). Business Analysis and Valuation. Thomson.
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Koller, Tim./Goedhart, Marc H./Wessels, David./Copeland, Thomas E.,/Mc (2010). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Kieu Tien Dat, Luu Viet Anh, Duong Duc Nam, Doan Danh Dai, Dinh Anh Thai (2014). Firm valuation of Viet Nam dairy products joint stock company (Vinamilk).
Vinamilk, Annual reports 2006 – 2015. Available: https://www.vinamilk.com.vn/en/bao-cao-thuong-nien.
Data Vinamilk stock and VN index: http://www.bvsc.com.vn/DownloadMSData.aspx and https://www.vndirect.com.vn/portal/thong-ke-thi-truong-chung-khoan/lich-su-gia.shtml.