本文使用民國 81 年、91 年、101 年所做之「台灣地區國內遷徙調查」，搭配縣市
政府統計資料庫，採用多重羅吉特迴歸，分析個人背景如個人資訊、畢業領域及學歷
、原居地人口聚集程度等變數，對三份調查中近一年內有遷移行為者之遷移決策的影
響。除針對各調查找出顯著的變數外，亦發現隨著調查年度不同，如搬家年齡、十五
歲以上戶內人口數、學歷等變數對遷移決策的影響皆有明顯的改變，而原居住地人口
密度等級即使隨調查年度不同，對特定決策仍維持顯著之同向影響。可知遷移者雖會
因時制宜遷移決策，仍有特定因素對遷移決策的影響並未隨時代變遷而有所改變。最
後亦提出政策建議，期能藉由相關政策影響人口遷移，改善城鄉人口結構及發展不均
的問題。

This thesis employs Taiwan Internal Migration Survey conducted in 1992, 2002, and 2012, and incorporates data from County-Government Statistic Database. Multinomial Logit model is used to analyze personal background such as personal information, education and field of expertise, and population density of the original location of residence, etc., and how such factors may have influenced the decision making of those who migrated within one year of the three surveys. I discuss the factors that are found with statistically significant impact. In addition, I find that the effect of some variables seem to change over time, such as age, number of family members above 15 years old, and education. On the other hand, the effect of some other variables such as population density of the original location of residence seems to have remained consistent across the board. It can therefore be inferred that, even though migrants would adapt their moving decision over time, there still exist certain factors of which the effect on personal migration that never change for the past 20 years. Finally, suggestions are provided for policy making in the hope that the government can exert influence on population movement to shorten the gap between urban and rural areas in terms of population structure and development.

一、前言
1.1 背景與動機…………………………………………………………………1
1.2 台灣人口發展史…………………………………………………………2
二、文獻回顧
2.1 所得與生活機能…………………………………………………………3
2.2 人口與區域的相互影響……………………………………………4
2.3 政府政策………………………………………………………………………5
2.4 台灣相關研究…………………………………………………………………6
三、資料及研究方法
3.1 資料……………………………………………………………………………7
3.2 變數介紹及敘述統計…………………………………………………………14
3.3 研究方法………………………………………………………………………27
四、結果
4.1 民國 81 年人口遷徙調查分析………………………………………29
4.2 民國 91 年人口遷徙調查分析………………………………………31
4.3 民國 101 年人口遷徙調查分析……………………………………33
4.4 綜合分析……………………………………………………………………………………35
五、結論 ……………………………………………………………………………………………40
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………………………………41

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