臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

電影產業在全球經濟中扮演高度的重要性，近年來，全球電影票房的屢屢升高，2015年全球電影票房收益達383億美元，創歷年新高，其中美加地區的電影票房收益就佔了約101億美元，由此可見，電影產業在市場中具有龐大的潛能，特別是對美國而言，因此本研究將以在美國上映之電影做為實證分析的對象。

許多研究皆證實口碑在消費行為上有重要的影響，過去亦有研究以口碑對電影產業進行探討，然而多以口碑的數量特性來衡量口碑效果，並未考量到口碑之正負面特性，其中，網路口碑相較於傳統口碑傳播速度更快，也更具有影響力，因此本研究將以網路口碑探討其特性對產品銷售的影響。

本研究蒐集了電影產業之口碑資料，以Lotka-Volterra Model作為研究架構，探討電影的正面評價與負面評價間之競爭關係，進而探討口碑效果之影響，其結論為正負面口碑互相競爭而影響對方之成長能力對於其模仿效果使用者是具有影響力的。

Film industry plays an important role in global economic. Box office earnings increase year by year. In 2015, the United States box office earnings are about 10.1 billion dollars, with 38.3 billion dollars global box office earnings. We can found that film industry has a great potential, especially in the United States. As a result, our study will use the movies which are shown in the United States as research objects.

Several researchers have studied the effect of amount of word-of-mouth in recent years, especially the electronic word-of-mouth. Although the effects of amount of word-of-mouth on film industry have been examined by many investigators, no studied have investigated the effect of the positive and negative commentary about movie. So this paper will discuss the effect of the positive and negative electronic commentary on movie.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the competitive relation between positive and negative commentary by Lotka-Volterra Model. Since different competitive relation will have different effects, this paper proposes Lotka-Volterra Model is good for analyzing the relation and intersection from both side.

目錄
第一章 緒論 5
第一節 研究背景 5
第二節 研究動機與目的 8
第三節 研究流程 9
第二章 文獻探討 10
第一節 口碑傳播影響力 10
第二節 口碑特性 14
2.2.1 數量特性與知曉效果 15
2.2.2 正負面特性與說服效果 16
第三節 電影口碑 17
第四節 Lotka-Volterra模型定義 18
第三章 研究方法 21
第一節 研究模式 21
3.1.1 Lotka-Volterra Model 21
3.1.2 Bass Model 23
第二節 研究假說 26
第三節 研究架構與資料蒐集 28
第四節 模型參數估計 29
第四章 研究結果 30
第一節 口碑評價競爭關係分析 30
第二節 Bass模型分析 38
第三節 實證分析結果 39
第五章 結論與後續建議 43
第一節 結論 43
第二節 後續建議 44
參考文獻 45
附錄一、Lotka-Volterra競爭關係 47
附錄二、口碑Bass擴散模型估計參數 49

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